So far so good on the BTC Cup and Handle!Traders,
In this weekly update, I cover the DXY, VIX, US500, US10Y, US02Y, inverted yield and its significance, Eurodollar, Credit Suisse, unemployment, and the Bitcoin. I'll cover a few anomalies that I am seeing in our current market and explain what they might indicate for future price action.
Finally, we will cover that Bitcoin Cup and Handle pattern that I have been projecting for the past few weeks: what happens if it plays out and what happens if it fails.
Stew
Us500
SPX to find resistance at previous levels?US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4014 (stop at 4034)
Posted a Bullish Hammer Bottom on the Daily chart.
Buying posted in Asia.
Bespoke resistance is located at 4014.
The previous swing high is located at 4018.
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 3942 and 3940
Resistance: 1014 / 4018 / 4030
Support: 3966 / 3942 / 3925
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US500, 10d+/26.6%rising cycle 26.6% more than 10 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
S&P500 bouncing on the Bear-Bull market separator. Strong buy.The S&P500 isn't only supported this week on the 1day MA200 but also hit the Pivot line that separates the Bear from the Bull market.
During the 2022 Bear market it was a Resistance, keeping all price action below it, having it total 6 rejections.
This is the first time it is being tested from above as a Support.
With a Channel Up having emerged as the pattern that is guiding the S&P500 into the new Bull Cycle, the RSI is on a flat Support, similar to what it did on June 16th 2022. A massive rally followed.
Our Target is 4300 (under Resistance A).
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S&P500, H4 | Potential bounce from major support?Price is approaching major support at 3904 which is a key overlap support. We could see a bounce from here to take price up to 3951 which is a pullback resistance right before the big 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
In terms of stop loss, we're eyeing the 3870 level which is an overlap support.
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S&P500: This correction is just a Bull Market Higher Low.The S&P500 index is having investors puzzled once more with the February correction as it turned the 1W technicals neutral again (RSI = 48.600, MACD = 4.420, ADX = 34.962). The price is under the 1W MA50 but the 1D MA100 is supporting along with the 1D MA200.
Having made the Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200, it is obvious that in contrast to the Bear's Bearish Reversals (three patterns with red arrow), it made a Bullish reversal (green arrow) on the December 19th Low. That was the first Higher Low of the new Bull Cycle and it is beyond doubt that we have transitioned into it.
The 1W RSI is on a Channel Up and as long as it doesn't make a Lower Low, we expect S&P500 to make its second Higher Low of the Bull Cycle now.
The Fibonacci levels have formed all major Higher since 2022 with tha latter being the Bull Cycles first Higher High on the 0.5 Fibonacci (January 30th). Technically we expect Fibonacci 0.618 to get hit on the next Higher High. We are long, TP = 4,300.
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S&P500 Bottom by tomorrow, slow 2-week recovery after.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading between its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) ad the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the November 03 Low is attempting to price its new Lower High.
Based on the symmetry provided by the 1D RSI that is on the 39.00 Support (Dec 19 and Dec 28 Double Bottom), the 1D MACD and and 4H Death Cross (February 27 and December 19), the current sequence is extremely similar with the December 19 - 22 bottom fractal. That was basically the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is about to cross tomorrow below the 1D MA50 and that marked the exact previous bottom on December 22.
As a result, this is the most optimal long-term buy level, and we are targeting initially at 4050 (middle of the Channel Up) and 4250 (just below the Higher Highs trend-line) in extension.
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S&P500: Channel Down dominant but target this if it breaks out.The S&P500 is inside a Channel Down on the 4H chart ever since the correction started early in February. A correction that has caused even the 1D time-frame to turn bearish technically (RSI = 41.649, MACD = -7.180, ADX = 42.487).
As long as the price remains below the 4H MA50, it is aiming as S2 (TP = 3,900). However with the 4H RSI inside a Channel Up (bullish divergence), if the price crosses over the Channel Down and more importantly the 4H MA200, we will go long aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 4,140).
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FOLLOW RENGE IN SHORT-TIMEIn short-time with low stronge tend bearish ... lets to RENG to resistance
SNP500 Bullish Short-Term Expectation Analysis This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I recommend you to not just execute based on these levels. I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
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This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
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- Supply And Demand
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US500 - Video Top-Down Analysis!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for US500 .
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
S&P500 Potential ReversalHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a selling opportunity around 4020 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
US500 BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
A recent breakout signals
That the bears are still strong
And I am growing in confidence
That a bearish selloff is coming!
SELL!
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SP500 SELLeace, mercy and blessings of God be upon you. The triangle has been successfully broken, and the uptrend, the market is in a downtrend.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 27
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 27
Scenario2 short on test & reject of 4094 yielded 50pts.
Scenario Planning:
1) Short if 4094 / 3928 is rejected
2) Long on support and accept of 3788 // 3928
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = No supply
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = No supply
H4: Very high vol up bar close off high = Supply present
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4094 3928
3788 3502-3580
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Have a profitable trading week.
US500(S&P) : Analysis , 4hHello traders, we want to check the chart of the US 500 in the 4-hour time frame. After falling simultaneously, the price has reached the upward trend line and also the key level of 3936 and 3952. If the price can break the downward trend line and return to the key level, the pullback is indicated. It is a good entry point to enter into a purchase transaction and we expect it to continue its growth until the level of 4038, but if it can break the upward trend line and also the key level downwards and stabilize itself at the bottom of 3936, we expect to reach around 3886 continue to fall. Good luck.
This is why I wait for 3 confirmation candles on the daily!Traders,
At times, during the last week, it looked as if our Cup and Handle pattern was going to be legitimized. However, caution was admonished. We had not yet seen 3 candle closes above our neckline on the daily which would have allowed for the safest entry. Though, we played around above the neckline for over a week, the break was never confirmed with 3 solid price closes above the neckline on the daily. This provides valuable teaching material for us all to observe and learn from going forward. I will review price history and show you what I needed to see for solid confirmation.
I will also review the four charts I was observing this past week.
And finally, I will show you what the picture now is looking like going forward.
Stew
US500 broke weekly support but it might be a fake brak downUS500 broke down from the weekly support which was not expected in the previous post. But to me it still looks like a fake break down. It has also hit the downward trend line from the top. It seems it is going down a bit and head up right into the support region it has lost.
S&P500 Approaching its new long-term bottomOn our last week analysis for the S&P500 Index (SPX) we called for the start of the correction within this long-term Channel Up pattern:
As you see the timing was spot on and the price broke below both the middle of the Channel Up and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Along with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the latter is close to forming a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame, which is a bearish pattern. The last time this was formed was on December 19 2022 and it was the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern.
The 1D RSI is already reversing, though the 1D MACD shows there might still be a few days left before bottoming. On an R/R basis, the risk is low buying on the 4H Death Cross formation, and this is what we will do, getting the most optimal long-term buy entry. Our first target is the middle of the Channel Up (4050) and upon a 4H MA200 re-test as Support, the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel as an extension (4250).
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S&P500 Two buy entries for the long termThe S&P500 has been inside a Channel Up ever since the October 13th market bottom.
Even though it didn't make a proper Higher High in February, the recent correction is still contained inside the Channel Up.
The MA50 1D is holding. If the price makes a closing under it, the Rising Support assumes controls of the trend and becomes the prevailing pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy now as long as the price is closing over the MA50 1D.
2. If it closes below, buy on the Rising Support.
Targets:
1. 4140 (under Resistance Zone A) and 4300 if the price closes above Resistance Zone A.
2. 4300 (representing a +11.35% rise from the Rising Support, which is a price range delivered in both previous rebounds on this Rising Support). Also under Resistance B.
Tips:
1. The MACD 1D shows that there is still room to fall before finding a Support, enhancing Scenario 2. Lower risk buy after it makes a Buy Cross.
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US500 longEquity rally due to systematic buying and HF short covering. Short interest has halved from
the Q4 highs for EU equities, but is still elevated in the US. Macro HFs and CTAs have turned
outright long equities, and their exposure is close to 12m highs, yet still below average. Long
short funds have also reduced short positions, but their net exposure remains low too. Risk
control funds’ exposure has increased only modestly and remains depressed by historical
standards. So there is room left for more systematic/HF buying. In contrast, mutual funds
remain long cash and have dumped equities in recent months. As a result, their equity beta is
close to the lows. Similarly, the bid from retail investors to equities has waned, with US
households turning outright sellers of stocks. ©Barclays Equity Research