US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice is approaching a key support level and potentially reverse, we could see the momentum carry price down to our take profit target.
Entry: 4046.90
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4192.95
Why we like it:
There is a swing-high resistance
Take Profit: 3897.91
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Us500
US500 H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4012.00, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3903.06 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 4077.26 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
S&P500 Will the bond yields rescue or push it lower?The S&P500 recently has been negatively correlated with bond yields. The while line is the US10Y.
This has been inside a Channel Down and is near its bottom. Based on their negative correlation that will push the S&P500 lower.
The time that both the S&P500 and the US10Y rose simultaneously was after August 1st and we can seriously argue that there are resemblances between the two time periods.
What do you expect to happen this time?
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US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4032.90, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3944.65 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 4097.53 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice could approach a key resistance level and reverse, we could see the momentum carry price down to its take profit target.
Entry: 4064.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4155.75
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance + swing-high
Take Profit: 3897.91
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US500 Will Most Likely Target 4530Looking for some nice bullish moves during Q2 and I expect price to hit 4530 by summer. With that being said, I also expect more gains above that price this year. Q1 closes in 4 days and we are looking bullish at the moment. If March can go bullish, I believe there is a strong chance stocks will rally this year. This analysis is based on price action, supply and demand, and market structure.
US500 SHORT Currently I'm just waiting for us500 to rise up to 4005 which is my liquidity area for it to then drop down to the 3960 area taking out multiple traders along the way.
SP500, All you need to know.S&P500
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
In this video I share my opinion on the current situation with the stock market. Plus, a lot of tips have been shared that you might want to add them to your trading skills.
Trade safely.
Trader Leo.
S&P500 breakout and potential retraceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 3950 zone, US500 was trading in a downtrend but after a dovish FOMC successfully managed to break it out. so if we get any decent pullbacks technically i will be watching a potential retrace of the trend around 3950 supply and demand zone.
trade safe, Joe.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
I won't be trading till the new month starts.
Keep profits and rest if target has been reached, and also
chart is messy at the moment.
Can't imagine a new quarter is starting soon!
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if market tests previous rotation area
(grey box)
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = possible weakness
= Supply remains
Daily: Mark up on lower volume = possible buyer's trap
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4082 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
BUY US500 on correction. Short term ideaUS500 broke out of falling channel, retested it and creating a new growing channel respecting its boundaries.
S&P500 the last wave is comingThe S&P500 index is preparing for its last wave up to fresh new highs. Crypto will also outperform all assets. After the blow-off top phase the "real" recession will begin.
S&P500: Is the Recession danger over?The S&P500 on the 1W time frame remains technically neutral (RSI = 51.005, MACD = 10.190, ADX = 35.849). Large reason why it has done so is because it has been ranging between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200 for 22 weeks (154 days). That is a significant period that isn't that indicative of a bottom formation. There is still a large portion (could even be the majority) of market participants that believe we haven't skipped the danger of an even longer Recession.
What better way to look at it than compare the index with the last Recession, the subprime mortgage on in 2007-2008. We see that for some period of time, that Recession traded also between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200, while also breaking shortly over the LH trend-line of the Cycle. It then started to decline aggressively on a weekly pace under the 1W MA200, something we haven't (yet) seen today, especially with the last two 1W candles being green. Also the MACD is now trading upwards after a Double Bottom while in 2008 it traded downwards.
Bottom-line, it is more likely that the danger of a Recession is over but a closing over the 1W MA100 would be ideal to confirm that. What do you think?
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Institutional analysisInstitutional analysis I can't show what it is on this platform because it doesn't contain my tools .
Institutional analysisInstitutional analysis I can't show what it is on this platform because it doesn't contain my tools .
NAS100 Technical analysisHello traders, this is my analysis for tomorrows trading sessions 3/23. I expect price to take the equal lows below and take the price created at CE of NWOG and maybe a bounce from the daily CE which is marked at the .5 level of the daily candle. Price has just taken equals Highs from Weekly, so I'm expecting it to start taking sellside liquidity.
S&P500 is pricing the new Low of the bullish leg.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again and the Higher Lows since the March 13 bottom. That was a bottom on the 5-month Channel Up and the best buy opportunity on a 1 month time-frame.
With the 4H RSI sequence similar to the Higher Lows of the previous bullish leg in late December/ early January, we see SPX attempting to price the new Low. This is a new buy opportunity. Our long-term target of 4190 is intact.
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S&P500 - Upside is over Hello traders! In previous posts we explained how we believed the last leg up from October's low in the SP to be a primary corrective wave (B) to the upside on overconfidence about the soft landing narrative and FED policies. You can see from this daily chart how low were volumes during this last period.
We were expecting the target of this upside movement to be around 4300, but price seems to be failing before, reentering into the previous downtrendline (blue) from January's 2022 top.
Either the impulsive movement to the downside is resumed and we are aiming at lower lows, or the primary (B) to the upside still has to conclude and we would be in a retracement before completing it higher. In any case, we believe more downside is coming and we are trading the Head and Shoulder showed in the chart (diagonal neckline), from @3940.1, targeting below 3700.
We will update below. Happy trading! ;)
The FED continues to imply a recessionYesterday, the FED hiked interest rates by 25 basis points, causing an initial rally in the U.S. stock market, followed by a selloff after FOMC’s press release. In his speech, Jerome Powell acknowledged the persistence of high inflation (replacing the tone of “easing inflation”), banking sector problems, and a strong labor market. Furthermore, he reiterated FED’s commitment to bringing the inflation rate back to 2%, adding that “some additional policy firming” may be required to achieve this goal (translating to the possibility of more rate hikes).
As for projection materials, the median forecast for the unemployment rate in 2023 is 4.5% (and 4.6% in 2024). We discussed a few months ago that historically, each 1% increase in the unemployment rate was always accompanied by a recession. Therefore, considering that the unemployment rate was 3.4% in January 2023, we could argue that the FED implies a recession over the course of the current year (even though it has been implying it at least since September 2022 through its forecasts).
In addition to that, the FED’s documents show a median forecast for FED’s fund rate at 5.1% in 2023, which is higher than the current target range of 4.75% to 5% (telling us that interest rates should be higher at some point). In our opinion, this means only more stress for the already weak U.S. economy. Due to that, we will stick to our previous assessment of more downside for the stock market in the coming months. Accordingly, we maintain our price target for SPX at $3 400.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the 5-minute chart of ES1! continuous futures. Yellow arrows indicate particular events in the market. Vicious whipsaws in the price can be observed.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish (Weak trend)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and the bullish breakout, followed by invalidation after Jerome Powell’s speech. We will pay close attention to today’s price action in SPX. To confirm a bearish bias, we would like to see the price stay below the sloping resistance (ideally, manifesting more weakness).
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 Buy the 4hour MA50 pullbackThe S&P500 failed to close over the 4hour MA200 and is pulling back to the 4hour MA50.
Buy this pull back as it is not only near the 0.5 Fibonacci level but also the Cup pattern's Support.
Target Resistance A at 4080.
Previous chart:
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US500: Long Trading Opportunity
US500
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy US500
Entry - 4004.8
Stop - 3952.0
Take - 4080.1
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels.
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AUDCHF SELLI decided to share my entry today, AUDCHF broke out from a double top chart pattern formation and retested decently. I'm expecting a drop down to 0.5771 which about 400 pips
my first target is 0.60451
US500 H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price could reach our sell entry area at 4021.21, which is an overlap resistance and also aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3967.66. Our stop loss will be at 4073.05, which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
