US500 to hit the weekly support and then bounceUS500 is on the way to revisit the weekly support zone around 3990. Currently it has hit the daily support but it is likely that it will go and at least touch the weekly support zone. But they both are quite close. That will definitely produce a bounce to the upside and might bring the price to daily resistance level. Let us see if this daily produces enough momentum to lead it to the resistance. But I would incline towards it touching weekly first before heading towards resistance and that would also be favorable for a better entry point and a better RR.
Us500
GOOGLE going in to 2024A possible inverse head and shoulder forming. seeing further down side for now as we head towards earnings.
The (4) Four Charts I am watching closely todayPull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing.
DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on the daily) indicates a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar price must be calculated into current stock prices, weakening the current stock momentum.
US500 - Testing that Macro Uptrend as support. A break below may indicate further downside (pending FED language following FOMC press conference).
US Treasuries - Both the 10 year and the 2 year are pushing up against resistance. A break to the topside would indicate that the FED will continue its aggressive rate hikes strategy to tackle inflation. The dollar will follow with strength. The markets will depress even further. Crypto will follow. Treasuries seem to indicate that the FED will continue its aggression against inflation. We must pay attention closely to those purple lines/levels.
Also to note, Bitcoin is up against its 200-week ma. I don’t see that be broken immediately without some setback prior. The Bitcoin price battle with the 200 weekly ma may be the earliest indicator we have to what might follow in the next few days/weeks.
As always, be cautious. Don’t bite too hard on these last few weeks of bullish price action. Dollar-cost average yourself in. Place those stops. And best of luck to you all!
Stew
S&P500 - Temporarily exhaustedHello traders!
As presented in previous posts, we believe that price has showed to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside to correct all the downtrend from January 2022 high. Price is likely to ungoing the last leg up of this upside correction. Low volumes and over entusiasm about the soft landing narrative suggest us that this rally can go up to 4300+ before reversing, but we do not take higher highs as our base case.
However, price arrived at a big resistance, with the blue wlfe wave still valid, and managed to exhaust the upside steam creating multiple divergences e lower lows. Also, VIX seems to be about to breakout a bullish wolfe wave :
We sometimes get insights by looking at VVIX, which is the same algorithm of the Vix applied to the VIX itself:
Here we can see that VVIX already broke out, suggesting bullishness for the VIX and bearishness for the index.
We are therefore short from @4152. Our stop loss is already placed on entry. Our first target is 3940, we will re evaluate the price action if we get there.
Breaking 4090 confirms more downside.
Happy trading!
US500USD YASSINEIØSS 💡🖐️M15Please respect the analysis. Today is a beautiful day, a golden opportunity. Just a little patience and diligence, we will be the best Happy holiday Any questions about the transaction are welcome
Keep a close eye on this breakout!Traders,
Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance.
But we want to track this closely to find out the legitimacy of this spike in fear. Confirmation can be had if one of the indicators mentioned above follows and breaks its support/resistance (see yesterday's video for more).
Best,
Stew
US500 - Strong Support Zone Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
US500 is overall bullish trading inside the rising red channel and now retesting the lower red trendline.
Moreover, the zone 3900 - 3950 is a strong weekly support zone .
🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support zone and lower red trendlines . (acting as non-horizontal support)
As per my trading style:
As US500 approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Two Big Indicators to Watch This WeekTraders,
There are two cautionary indicators that I want you to be aware of and to watch closely this week. One of them has to do with U.S. treasuries which lead our dollar strength/weakness. The other has to do with the 200 week moving average on the Bitcoin chart. Let's dive in and take a look at these two very important lead indicators.
Stew
Emini S&P Weekly Action AreasIn this update we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives for the week ahead
SPX in a BEAR Market? Retracement before a BULL TrapIn this Elliott Wave paradigm, I'm assuming that SPX have completed a BULL Cycle with large wave 3 and that a possible Zig Zag correction is currently unfolding.
If that's the case then, we shouldn't expect any BULL Market or wave 5 before 2024.
However, the AI hype could boost the markets during the end of the year with a test of the 61.8% and maybe above that price level.
The PERFECT BULL TRAP will be in play if this case were to play out.
Of course, we could already assumed that wave B has already finished but I take DURATION into consideration and other macro economics factors.
I'm expecting a correction of of nearly 50% in the short term (next couple of months) to then see a rally up until the end of the year. Maybe November.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 20
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 FEB 20
Scenario1 rotation play yielded 120pts gain
for week of 13 Feb.
Scenario Planning:
1) Rotational play = trade at boundary of 4175-4061 zone
2) Short on test and reject of 4094-4048 zone
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = Minor demand
H4: Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor demand
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4061-4048 3928-3788
3580 3502 3231
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
US500(S&P) : Short Trade , 1hUS500 sell Entry : 4108.3
Stop : 4161.8 , Target1 : 4048.0 , Target2 : 4001.1
Risk/Reward Ratio : 2
S&P500 Channel Up broken downwardsThe price closed under the MA50 4H for the first time since January 9th.
Similar Channel Up pattern in December led to a 0.786 Fibonacci correction.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on opening.
Targets:
1. 3955 (above 0.786 Fibonacci)
Tips:
1. A Double Bottom on the RSI 4H Buy Zone would be an excellent buy confirmation.
Please like, follow and comment!!
S&P500: Selling started inside the Channel UpS&P500 turned neutral on its 1D time frame (RSI = 51.591, MACD = 36.770, ADX = 21.671) after a Double Top formation pushed it on the February 10th Low. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up and as the RSI is printing a variance identical to the first 2 weeks of December that formed the top, we expect a similar decline to start, aiming at the bottom of the pattern.
We remain on sell positions since our last analysis and aim at the 1D MA50 (TP = 4,000). If the 1D MA200 is crossed, we will short again aiming at the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 3,865).
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SPX short term trend has turned negative.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 4091 (stop at 4127)
Price action has posted a bearish Outside Day and is negative for short-term sentiment.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Bespoke support is located at 3997.
Previous support, now becomes resistance at 4091.
Bespoke resistance is located at 4091.
Our profit targets will be 4001 and 3991
Resistance: 4091 / 4155 / 4174
Support: 4051 / 3996 / 3974
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