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Us500

S&P Bulls Defy Expectations; New Historical HighLast week, the bulls did something remarkable. At the start of the week, there was a clear bearish reversal pattern forming on the daily chart. Despite being a believer in the bulls (given the strength of the weekly chart), I was still quite certain that sellers would at least be able to take down the weak low from the last week of June (SPX 5,448). However, instead of breaking through, the sellers made only a weak attempt on Monday. After a brief pause, the market rallied, breaking through all previous highs. It is hard to grasp such a change in sentiment, especially since there was nothing particularly surprising in the economic data or the FOMC announcements. Sometimes, it seems that the market itself is confused, and the best we can do is observe its behavior day by day and make quick adjustments to our strategy. There was absolutely no clear reason behind the sell-off on Friday the 28th (presidential debates? really???), but we had to trust price action and let it shape our strategy. Only now can we conclude that it was a “fake” weakness (actually, we already started suspecting it on Tuesday). More likely, it was temporary confusion in the market, caused by many contradicting political and economic signals. The current outlook is bullish. The market has set a new high, and the majority of sectors ended the week strong (see Market Inner Strength Index). The only possible warning is that the weekly RSI is approaching the overbought condition. The last time this happened (at the end of March), it triggered a weekly consolidation, but again, nothing is certain. P.S. this week is heavily packed with economic data releases. Also, banks report on Friday. Things might change really fast Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
SP:SPXLong
by hermes_trisme
US500 Will Go Lower! Short! Take a look at our analysis for US500. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,631.5. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,517.7. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by SignalProvider
1
S&P500 Short-term buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) is just after the middle of the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up, supported by both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The Sine Waves have been very efficient at projecting the bottoms and tops (Higher Lows and Higher Highs respectively) throughout the pattern. Right now the index is approaching such a top and once the 4H RSI makes a Double Top, it will be time to take profit. Rough projection, we expect that to be around 5700 and that is our Target unless the RSI double tops earlier. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SPX500 / US500 Bullish Robbery Plan To Make MoneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist SPX500 / US500 market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 4h timeframe Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Long
by Thief_Trader
This is not the end of the bull marketThe S&P 500 closed at a new high last week, indicating strong upward momentum. In terms of macroeconomic data, June's ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 (previously 53.8), below the consensus of 52.5. This signals a weakening in the services sector, which might impact investor sentiment in the short term. On the other hand, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June came in at 206,000, exceeding the consensus of 190,000 but below the previous reading of 218,000. Despite this, the data positively influenced the market as it brought the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Fed closer. Private sector employment stood at 136,000, below expectations of 160,000, which was interpreted as a sign that the Fed might be more inclined to ease monetary policy. Seasonal Prospects We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals. Risk Pricing and Sentiment The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 67% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher. Seasonal Prospects We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals. Risk Pricing and Sentiment The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 72% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher. S&P 500 Returns After 20 or More All-Time Highs at Midpoint of the Year The table shows that the S&P 500 market typically performs well after achieving numerous all-time highs by mid-year. Historically, these years end with positive returns for the full year. S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at Midpoint of the Year The data indicates that years with over 10% YTD returns by mid-year often continue positive trends throughout the rest of the year, resulting in significant gains by year-end. Nonfarm Payrolls and Job Market Data Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000, although revisions for previous months lowered these figures by 111,000. Despite this, the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a strong job market. AAII Member Sentiment on Stock Market Direction A significant portion of AAII members are bullish about the market direction over the next 6 months, with bullish sentiment higher than historical averages. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the Week Beginning July 08, 2024 In the upcoming week, earnings reports from several significant companies, such as PepsiCo, Delta, and JPMorgan Chase, are expected, which may significantly impact market sentiment. S&P 500 Earnings Growth for Calendar Year 2025 Projections indicate the highest earnings growth in the information technology and healthcare sectors, with more moderate growth in other sectors such as real estate and consumer staples. Growth in Disposable Income and Compensation vs. Inflation The growth in disposable income and compensation exceeds inflation, indicating increased purchasing power for consumers. Consumer Spending Trends Consumer spending is rising steadily and remains above trend despite economic fluctuations. S&P 500 vs. Rising 10-Year Treasury Yield Strategy The current situation indicates stability in the bond market and continued growth in the S&P 500 index. The lack of a signal to switch to cash suggests that the stock market is in good condition, allowing investors to benefit from the rising market while monitoring bond yields for future warning signals. Key Economic Events in the Coming Week Next week, several key economic events are expected, which could influence the markets: Current market conditions suggest further potential gains for S&P500. Despite some concerns about the labor market, overall sentiment, seasonal support, and technical indicators point to a continuation of the upward trend. It will be essential to monitor further macroeconomic data and Fed decisions, which will be crucial for future market movements.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
S&P500 Shifted to new bullish pattern. 5750 next.The S&P500 index (SPX) made a major bullish break-out in accordance to our previous analysis (June 17, see chart below), where we clearly stated that a break above the 1.5-year (Fibonacci) Channel Up pattern it would indicate a transition to a new (blue) Channel Up: As you can see that happened and the index is extending that blue Channel, with the long-term prevailing pattern now being the dashed Channel Up. Technically it appears that the price is rising straight after finishing a Cup consolidation structure that is no stranger to it as we've seen it another two times, always leading in the end either to a 2.383 Fibonacci extension target or around +30% rise from the top. On the current Bullish Leg, the 2.382 Fibonacci extension comes much lower than a potential +30% rise from the April 19 bottom, so as mentioned on our previous analysis, we will be targeting (this time slightly lower) at 5750. If the 2.382 Fib breaks and we close a 1W candle above it, we will extend buying all the way to +30%, i.e. just above 6300. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P buyers dominate market; sellers wait asideLast week began with a powerful rally. After the bulls failed to push higher the next day, sellers seized the initiative and tried to drive the market lower. However, they didn't accomplish much, and the week ended with a potential reversal pattern on the hourly chart. If this pattern confirms today, we could see another bull run very early. Even if it doesn’t confirm, there is still substantial support just below. On the longer timeframes (weekly and monthly), buyers still have full control, with no warning signs. While the price is slightly overbought on the daily chart, this is not a significant concern in strong uptrends. Sector rotation appears healthy – despite the market being pressured by weakness in XLK, other sectors (e.g., XLF, XLV) appreciated. Important economic data will be released on Thursday and Friday. As long as there are no negative surprises, the market is expected to remain strong. The market outlook is a definite "long". New buyers can try to establish position upon the confirmation of the hourly reversal patters and upon the pullback into consolidation zone (if it happens). Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P500 Index / Balancing Bullish Trends with Cautious OptimismS&P 500 Index Technical Analysis Current Market Overview: The S&P 500 index recently reversed and stabilized within a bullish zone after closing a 4-hour candle above the critical level of 5491. This development suggests a potential bullish trend towards 5529 in the near term. Intraday Analysis: Today, it is expected that the price will remain stable above 5491, sustaining the bullish momentum towards 5529 and potentially reaching 5550. Bullish Scenario: As long as the price continues to trade above the pivot zone, defined between 5491 and 5472, we anticipate further upward movement towards 5529 and 5550. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish trend to initiate, the price must first stabilize below 5491. Should it close a 4-hour candle under 5472, this would signal the start of a bearish trend. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5491 - Resistance Levels: 5506, 5529, 5550 - Support Levels: 5472, 5440, 5410 Today's Expected Trading Range: The anticipated trading range for today lies between the resistance at 5530 and the support at 5472. In summary, maintaining a position above the pivot zone supports a bullish outlook, with potential targets at 5529 and 5550. Conversely, a breach below 5491, followed by a close under 5472, would indicate a shift towards a bearish trend. ----------- Cautious Markets Temper Tech Enthusiasm A mix of caution ahead of a U.S. inflation reading, renewed enthusiasm in tech stocks driven by Nvidia's resurgence, and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials has resulted in a market searching for direction. Traders are hesitant to make significant moves ahead of Friday's crucial release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that annual growth will slow to 2.6% in May, the lowest rate in over three years. Until the PCE data is released, market participants are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials. So far, policymakers are advocating for patience, emphasizing that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, thereby dampening any excitement about potential rate cuts.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Dow Jones Index (US30): Your Trading Plan For Today Dow Jones Index is testing, a recently broken key daily resistance. With a high probability, the broken structure turned into support. Our confirmation to buy will be a bullish breakout of a neckline of an ascending triangle formation on 1H time frame. Hourly candle close above 39185 will confirm the violation. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 39325. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by VasilyTrader
1
S&P500 Seeking the 4H MA200 for buyersThe S&P500 index (SPX) got rejected at the top of the 2-month Channel Up that started on the April 19 bottom and is already below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a sign of weakness for the short-term and based on the previous two times it did so, it might be accelerated. Technically, the market should seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support, which is what took place on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up on May 31. We are looking to turn bullish again close to the 4H MA200 and target 5650, which is not only at the top of the Channel Up but also below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous two Higher Highs got priced. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook – Managing political risk• Month and quarter-end flows to impact price action • The US Presidential elections kick up a gear • Managing risk around the French 1st round vote • US Core PCE is the marquee data point of the week • Australia's monthly CPI a potential kicker for the AUD • Central bank meetings due this week • Long MXN back in vogue For the week ahead there is a fair bit for traders to prepare for and to manage, with event risk spanning economic data, politics, and central bank meetings. We also gear up for month- and quarter-end, so the usual opaque portfolio rebalancing flows impacting price action, as well as the aftermath of a monster options expiry (OPEX) and ETF rebalance on Friday. I’ve never personally found any edge aligning trades to what I’m hearing for the needs of portfolio rebalancing flows. However, as the big portfolios rebalance (e.g. from pension funds) the flows can impact equity, FX and fixed income and produce moves that can’t readily be explained by the data and news flow – any factor that alters our trading environment needs to be considered. The US election kicks into gear On the political front, the US Presidential election kicks into gear with the first debate held between Biden and Trump (21:00 EST / 02:00 BST / 11:00 AEST) likely getting sizeable attention. Prediction markets currently have Trump ahead by 5ppt, which is partly a function of Trump’s superior polling in the six key battleground/swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia). While the debate may not stoke market volatility, it will be symbolic given it’s the earliest live debate since 1960, and Biden will be out to prove a point to the American voters. As the gloves come off it could get ugly on the podium, and we watch to see if the debate affects polling. Managing exposures into the French first-round vote For those trading the EUR, FRA40, and European equities more broadly, the first round of voting in the French election plays out on Sunday. This will have many assessing the risk of holding exposures into the weekend vote, with the very real prospect of gapping on the Monday open. We can take a stab at the outcome and base-case scenario the market is currently pricing based on the French-German 10y yield spread and current pricing in EU assets, and from that loosely devise a playbook for a potential market reaction upon learning who will go through to the second-round vote scheduled for 7 July. Given recent polling, I’d argue the broad consensus is currently seeing two outcomes – either Le Pen’s RN party gaining a working majority and cohabiting with Macron as President or a hung parliament with the RN party the largest contribution. I’m not sure we get a massive market response if this remains the base case after the first vote. The big reaction comes with a better outcome for the left-wing NFP coalition, where they seem to have momentum with recent polls have shown greater support for the coalition - the greater sway the left has on fiscal policy the more negative the reaction in the EUR, FRA40 and broad EU assets. EURUSD holds below 1.0700 but is finding some support below the figure. Should the France-German 10yr yield spread widen past 85 to 90bp this week (its currently at 80bp) then EURUSD could be headed towards the 16 April lows of 1.0601, with EURCHF rolling over and eyeing a move back down to 0.9500. ECB 1- & 3-year CPI expectations (due on Friday) could promote some EUR volatility, but it will be trumped by market participants positioning ahead of Sunday's vote. US core PCE inflation a risk event On the US data side, US core PCE inflation is on Friday and is the marquee event risk, with expectations the Fed’s inflation gauge prints +0.1% m/m, and +2.6% y/y. The last two US PCE inflation prints have come in above expectations, but historically the outcome of the data falls in line with consensus. That said, if we do get an upside surprise and a year-on-year pace at or above 2.8%, this outcome would likely impact be taken badly by equity markets and result in solid USD buying. We get relief in risky assets, USD selling, should we see the month-on-month pace come in at 0.00% m/m and certainly if we see a decline. We also get US consumer confidence where the consensus sees a lower read at 100 (vs 102 in the prior read), a Q1 GDP revision, personal income, and spending. We also get 9 Fed speakers through the week, although I don’t see these being too much of a risk, and we need to hear speeches post-PCE inflation data. USDJPY and USDCNH both get focus, where the upside moves in USDCNH seem to be spilling over into strength in other USD pairs – the PBoC should look to curb yuan weakness this week, but higher levels in the USDCNH cross-rate should see lend upside support for the USD. On the data side, we see Japan's Tokyo CPI (due Friday) and China PMIs (on Sunday), where the latter offers some degree of gapping risk in Chinese markets and the China proxies (AUD, NZD, CLP) on Monday. The client’s focus is on a potential break of ¥160 (in USDJPY) and whether we start to hear more from the MoF on JPY intervention – Japan rates now only price 4bp of hikes for the July BoJ meeting, and the market is happy to hold JPY shorts despite the likelihood the BoJ drastically reduce the pace of JGB buying. The rate of change and slope of the trend in USDJPY is the bigger issue though. Aussie CPI in play AUD and AUS200 traders will be watching the May monthly CPI read, with the consensus eyeing a lift in headline CPI to 3.8% (from 3.6%). The notable focus will be on services inflation, which keeps the threat of an August hike on the table, so this monthly print will set expectations for the all-important Aus Q2 CPI (due 31 July), which could go some way in influencing if the RBA do consider a hike in August. We also hear from RBA members Kent (Wed 09:35 AEST) and Hauser (Thursday 20:00 AEST). Prefer AUD upside vs currencies where the central bank is cutting or holds an easing bias (EUR, GBP & CHF). I also like AUDNZD from a central bank divergence play and would be adding to longs on a daily close above the 50-day MA (1.0883). On the central bank front, we see meetings in Sweden (expected to leave rates at 3.75%), Mexico (unchanged at 11%), Turkey (unchanged at 50%) and Columbia (50bp cut to 11.25%). The MXN is certainly looking perky, with a blend of short covering and aggressive longs emerging late last week – USDMXN eyes support at 18.0514 and should test this soon. Driving the MXN we’ve seen several more market-friendly appointments in the AMLO cabinet, but we’re also seeing carry trades working well as a strategy, and this week should refocus the market on MXNs compelling fundamental characteristics, with high real policy rates and improved forward rates offering excellent carry. Long MXNJPY is in beast mode at this point but comes with intervention risk. With the moves seen in US equity on Friday, we start the week with the ASX200, HK50, and NKY225 all looking like they open on the back foot, with our opening call 0.2% lower a piece. I remain biased to trade a range in the ASX200 (7850 to 7650) and NKY225 of 39,340 to 37,860, with a small bias that we see lower levels of these ranges tested. Good luck to all.
by Pepperstone
Never bet against America - But it is time for a correction!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. It is true that the legend Warren Buffett says: "Never bet against America" But it is time for a correction in my opinion. I find the daily chart for US500 to be interesting as it appears to be forming one of my favorite patterns. What I call TRIO RETEST 1️⃣ => Non-Horizontal Resistance US500 has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in orange and currently hovering around the upper bound / orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. 2️⃣ => Overbought From a medium-term perspective, US500 has been trading inside the rising channel in red, and it is currently hovering around its upper bound / red trendline acting as an over-bought zone. 3️⃣ => Round Number Moreover, the $5,500 is a massive round number. Thus, as long as the $5,500 mark holds, I expect a bearish correction towards the lower bound of the red channel. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheSignalyst
3
Market Soars with Unyielding MomentumLast week was marked by complete bullish dominance. After positive inflation data was released on Wednesday, the market opened with a significant gap up. The next day, sellers made a sluggish attempt to fill this gap but never came close. To sum it up: 1. Prices are in an uptrend on weekly, monthly, and daily charts. 2. Last week closed strong with almost no seller pressure. 3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 12th. So far, this market is fully controlled by buyers. Notably, growth is driven mostly by tech stocks, reflecting a "risk-on" mode of investing. Some people are concerned about the narrow breadth, but it doesn't matter much whether growth is driven by many names or just a few large stocks. While narrow breadth can lead to increased volatility, the fact is that money is being poured into the market. As long as this continues, the market will remain strong. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
S&P500 targeting 5800 if this level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) recovered from April's correction and rebounded on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) during late May's consolidation, much faster than all previous corrective phases within the 1.5 year Channel Up pattern. This has resulted in the price testing again the top of that pattern, first time since April 01. So far it has been there but failed to break it 3 days in a row, which is an accelerating bearish signal and as long as it fails to break upwards, we expect another test (at least) of the 1D MA50. If it does break though, and since as mentioned this corrective phase has been faster and weaker than the previous, there are higher probabilities to do so, we expect a new (blue) short-term Channel Up to emerge. That would be similar to the previous 2 Bullish Legs of the long-term Channel Up, only this time it will break above it and take the index to a new dominant pattern. In any case, our medium-term Target on that occasion wil be 5800, even though on the long-term, we can see at least a +25% rise from the April 19 bottom. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
2