SPX finds floating ground for nowHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The S&P 500 index traded below its 50-day moving average, its first major breach in more than six months.
The S&P 500 was able to find a floating ground after teetering developer China Evergrande said it would pay some bond interest due on Thursday. Removing fears of a big and messy collapse that had scared investors.
The Index price has dropped 2.6% in the last couple of days but now the market seems to be stabilizing and an increase in value might start bringing the SPX back into the Ascending Channel range.
Possible Scenarios for the market if the China situation was resolved :
Scenario 1 :
If the Bulls were able to gather the force need to gain control then we will see an increase in the market that would reach the 4452.57 resistance level where we might have a small correction that will bring the price near the 4405.15 level before the index goes back into the Ascending Channel range.
Scenario 2 :
After a drop like that it could take a bit of time for the Bulls to go in and push the market up, in that time we will see the price reach the first support level located at 4308.11 where most likely the buyers will go in, but if they failed to support that line then we might see a bigger drop reaching the 4258.49 or even the 4211.07 support before going back up.
Technical analysis show :
1) The market is below the 5 10 20 50 MA and EMA (Bearish Short-Term Trend) But still above the 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Bullish Long-Term Trend)
2) The RSI is at 33.48 it hasn't reached the overbought zone yet and its showing Weakness in the market
3) The ADX is at 22.13 showing that the market is trending with a Negative crossover between DI+ (10.06) and DI- (34.68)
Daily Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 4308.11 1) 4405.15
2) 4258.49 2) 4452.57
3) 4211.07 3) 4502.19
Weekly Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 4409.33 1) 4475.22
2) 4385.67 2) 4517.45
3) 4343.44 3) 4541.11
Fundamental point of view :
Bloomberg reports that Hengda Real Estate - the main unit of troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande - will make its Thursday bond coupon payment. This hardly means Evergrande is out of the woods - indeed a restructuring at some point still remains likely - but a disorderly unwind seems off the table at the moment.
Concerns over China Evergrande Group have put investors on edge and added to recent worries over economic growth from the Delta variant.
Persistent default fears overshadowed efforts by Evergrande's chairman to boost confidence in the firm on Tuesday, while Beijing showed no signs it would intervene to stem any effects across the global economy.
Investors are waiting for the end of this week's Fed meeting that may shed light on when its massive purchase of government debt will begin to ease. According to Reuters
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
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Thank you for reading.
