SPX - We expect more weakness ahead of the FOMCWe turn bearish on SPX as the FED meeting is less than a month away. We expect elevated volatility and weakness to continue ahead of the meeting. At the moment, we actually think it is very likely that weakness will remain persistent even after the FED meeting and interest rate hike. In our opinion, higher interest rates in the U.S. pose a substantial threat to further rise of SPX in short-term, medium-term as well as long-term. Our change of view is supported by recent failure of major U.S. indices to reverse to the upside. In addition to that, a change in technical indicators from neutral to bearish also supports our thesis. Because of that we would like to set a new short-term price target for SPX to 4 292 USD; we would also like to set a medium-term price target to 4 222 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and its RSI. We expect the price to reach a new low below 4 222.62 USD. Meanwhile we expect RSI to reach a higher low in comparison to its recent low on 27th January 2021 (which was equal approximately 24 points).
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI failed to break its medium-term bearish structure. Stochastic continues to decline which is bearish. MACD reversed to the downside which is bearish as well. DM+ and DM+ also show bearish conditions in the market. ADX shows relatively flat movement which reflects recent choppy price action in the SPX. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI continues to develop bearish structure. Same applies to MACD and Stochastic. DM+ and DM- are bearish too. ADX increases which suggests the prevailing trend is regaining momentum. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Support and resistance
Short-term support coincides with our short-term price target of 4 292 USD. Support 1 coincides with our medium-term price target of 4 222 USD. Short-term resistance lies at 4 595.31 USD and Resistance 1 sits at 4 748.83 USD. The major resistance level can be found at the all-time high value of 4 818.62 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
US500SHORT
s&p 500 recovery over, ready to test low again(4196)Today SPX completed its recovery(xx) after its wave 'Y', note that it has not penetrated inside wave 'W' territory.
wave 'Y' extended beyond 1.62% of wave 'W',
Hence as per EW rule one more wave 'Z' to unfold which has a definite relationship (between 62% or 162%)of wave 'W'.
Lets open our shorts,keeping stop loss 4582
Trading with minimum stop loss, conserve our capital in case of extension of wave 'xx'
📍 Trading Styles 📍 Trading Styles
There are a lot of strategies and types of traders and investors in the financial markets, this doesn't mean you have to learn all of them. In my opinion you should try all trading types and then conclude which one suits more to your personality becuase there is no such thing as you HAVE TO trade intraday or swing or position, everything depends strictly on you.
✅ Scalping Traders
Holding positions for several minutes, in my opinion its not recommended for the newbies as you will see a lot of losses and wins during the day and this can hurt your emotions.
✅ Day Traders
Holding positions for couple hour or a day, they basically when to know ar the end of the day If they made money or not. Same recommendation as for scalping
✅ Swing Traders
Holding positions for a several days, intra-week trading. This is the recommendation for the newbies as you dont get the market feedback really fast and you can counter emotions + overtrading, usually they take 4-5 trades during the trading week.
✅ Position Traders
Holding positions for several weeks, usually this type of traders trade on a weekly-monthly basis with a focus on the fundamental analysis more than on the technical side. Recommended for experienced traders as you can get big returns with a iron patience
What type do you like or want to be ?
Why 90% of Traders Lose ? ❌ Going Full Margin
Risk management is the most important in this game because it keeps you alive, keeps your account fresh during bad market conditions.
Learn risk management first to understand how to protect your capital first of all and then learn a strategy
You have to know your risk numbers in terms of
• Risk per trade
• Daily Drawdown Limit
• Weekly Drawdown Limit
• Monthly Drawdown Limit
✅ Buying SIGNALS
Buying signals and expecting overnight succes could be bad for your trading journey, don't expect anything from anybody and start to be your signal generator
✅ Get Rich Quickly
Trading business its not getting rich overnight, its getting rich for sure on a long term basis. Don't expect succes overnight its not gonna happen i promise you.
• Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Give it time and simply commit to the process
✅ Not Sticking to the Plan
Your trading plan is your trading bible and principles, you should respect it no matter what. Your trading plan its the only thing you can control in the markets as you can't control the price movement.
Make the plan and trade the plan.
What do you think ?
The ART of profit booking I am posting a chart for educational purpose using S&p 500 index with heikinAshi candle and elliott waves
trading is an art of buying at low and selling at high, looks easy to do? if so why more people loosing and big players minting money?
trading is a money making process when the crowd has extreme interest in one direction(buy /sell).
when everyone in the street is buying, it is the RIGHT time to sell.
The ART of profit booking without harming buyers(they don't know what's happening) is described in the chart.
Because if they knew in advance then to whom the seller has to sell?
Actually speaking the BULLS AT THE BEGINING OF THE TREND NOW BECOME BEARS!
SELVAM BE, MBA
option trader
Excuses Excuses Excuses! Possible bearish scenario for US indexThanks to everyone that has been supporting my ideas so far. I keep positive about the short position on Tesla Inc. I had mentioned earlier this week, while the look out on Apple might change (probable short). Anyway, yesterday, the S&P 500 has closed the week down 2% to close below the 200 MA. It has not only created a double top, breaking down on higb volume, but it has also been unable to break the resistance level, which might point at a dead cat bounce. So, I believe the major correction we have been waiting for since the beginning of Covid for this "overvalued" market may be starting, for one reason or the other, whether Russian threats or hedge funds and CEOs liquidating their long positions. In fact, I believe the FED might be more involved in this "crash" than we think where they are interested in actively crashing using Russian-Ukraine escalations as possible excuses, I will explain my idea later on in another post appropriately titled.
However, consider that if price is able to recover and be supported above the 200 MA and break the most recent high (4585), then there may be a change of sentiment and this idea would be irrelevant. For now, I would keep short and wait for another correction. GET THE CASH READY.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
The Bigger Picture on the US100 Hey guys, If you have seen my most recent posts you wont be surprise to see I'm bearish on the markets and have been for some time. With market valuations out of whack, Ungodly like debt in Government, cooperate, and leverage used by traders, 40% of all the US currency printed in 2020-2021 but production at an all time low causing inflation we haven't seen since the 80s and i feel will get even worse and lastly The Fed having to stop its purchases and tighten policy with interest rate hiking probably faster then the market was pricing in. This is a giant bubble with some gaint problems they will send it falling at least in my estimate 40% but trend is even further at 57%. Obviously I dont think it will sink like a rock there and we will have some rebounds but as the fed keeps tightening and i think its safe to assume funds and firms will go bust they will send it back down further and further. Although this is gloomy I don't think its financial collapse, once inflation is taking care of and the excesses of finance have been washed away they market will be set for another massive decade long bull market with growth prospects for the world coming from India, Australia, Mexico and all over Africa.
My plan for this year and next is to watch the FED on interest rate hikes and statements and also inflation numbers, Watch Silver/gold this usually head south first and recover first and when the market starts the recover gold/silver will skyrocket to the moon. and Watch debt levels for both Governments and cooperate, Picking company that have low debt levels now that can take the opportunity that will come will massively improve your longer term portfolios.
keep up to date with my trades by following and liking the post.
BOS - BREAK OF STRUCUTRE ✅✅✅🎯 WHAT IS BOS ?
BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market strucutre bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset.
To spot a bullish/bearish market strucutre we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market strucuture we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the strucutre this is the BOS.
🎯 BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move
Kindly see attached photos
US500 LONGS 📉📉📉Expecting bullish price action on this pair as price is in a bullish trend on a HTF, taked out liquidity below 4300 closed above bullish, retraced to fill the bullish imbalance and right now we are going higher for the w1 imbalance and 4700. This is a swing entry so please remember it will take some time to capitalise
What do you think ? Comment below..
S&P500 BULLS WILL GET A BEAR HITAs WXYX waves are compressed in an ENDING DIAGONAL , the result of over anticipation ( Euphoria) is favourable to BEARS .
This index is ready to fall from 4th jan for its wave''C''.as per NEO WAVE time cycles
The ongoing wave has 5 subdivisions in a ''CLASSIC ELLIOTT WAVE'' Pattern, which is easy to Trade in OPTIONS
4645 is the first target for BEARS to HIT the BULLS
B SELVAM BE MBA
OPTION BUYING COACH
S&P500 to test its support @ 4434A simple A B C zigzag correction is completed in S&P500 index.Wave 'A' is 5 wave(wxyxz )marked as 12345 and Wave'C' is 5wave terminal expanding pattern(3,3,3,3,3)
Minimum requirement of wave''C'' is achieved (62%ofA) @ 4819 on 4th Jan'22.
This index will take a breath at this zone(62%) and test for its support level before making any upmove further.
The first support level ( c2,c4 trendline) is @4434. If this level brokes, we can see another bout of decline as this index starts its next phase of bear market
3 STAGE CONFIRMATION OF BEAR MARKET IN S&P500The expanding triangle environment (distribution at high level) is at ending stage in S&P500 .
Yes in all world indices.
Today12/22/21 if SPX not breach 4656 (62% of wave''A'') then first confirmation for weak bulls.
IF SPX falls below 4495 then second confirmation of weak bears.
Finally IF SPX FALLS BELOW 4326 (OUT OF THE EXP,TRIANGLE) then final confirmation of STRONG BEARS
B.selvam be,mba,option buyer,coimbatore,india
US30 LONGS UPDATE 📉📉📉We are in profit on this trade, i expect bullish price action way above liquidity pool and new ATH"s to be formed, vix is down and we are in a risk on market environment that should support our long idea.
What do you think ? Comment below..
NASDAQ LONGS UPDATE 📉📉📉Expect the price to reach weekly high and close all the bearish imbalances, vix is down we are in a risk on market environment and indexes should rise+santa claus rally that is coming next week.
What do you think ? Comment below..
VIX LONGS ✅✅✅I see bullish price action on VIX as we are approaching an important area of support if you will, price closed all the bullish gaps made on the last week's panic and right now its going in my opinion to close bearish gap near 28$.
This means RISK OFF in the markets this means SHORT INDEXES.
What do you think ? Comment below..
SUPPLY AND DEMAND - US500 (5-11 Dec 2021)MN TF:
Candle close is lower than previous month
W1 TF:
New W1 Supply zone formed
D1 Direction
H4 TF:
Supply zones formed
H1 TF
Sell zone identified
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 November – 12 November 2021)Investors are to take note of the end of Daylight Saving Time (DST) that will effectively have the US exchanges open at an hour later, depending on your time zone starting today.
$SPX is currently closed at 200% ATR(14) away from its 10 days moving average, the first time since September 2020. Data on inflation will be the highlight of the U.S. economic calendar in the week ahead as investors continue to digest the Fed’s decision to begin tapering stimulus measures, marking the beginning of less accommodative monetary policy.
Earnings season is winding down, but there are still several companies set to report during the week. China’s Communist Party looks set to green-light a third term for President Xi Jinping.
Here’s what you need to know in the coming week.
Market Technicals
The benchmark index $SPX continues its high octane rally with a fresh new high established at 4,718 level, gaining +2.00% (+92.15 points) during the week.
$SPX is currently closed at 200% ATR away from its 10 days moving average, the first time since September 2020.
The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,660 level, a break of its short term uptrend momentum.
Inflation data
Data on producer price inflation for October is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed a day later by figures on consumer price inflation.
The CPI numbers are expected to hit their highest levels so far post-pandemic, with economists forecasting an increase of 0.6% month-on-month and 5.8% year-on-year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to rise by an annualized 4.3%.
At its latest meeting the Fed stuck to the view that high inflation would prove “transitory” and is not likely to require a rapid increase in interest rates, prompting investors to call it a “dovish taper.”
While the central bank has so far managed to communicate plans to begin scaling back its monthly bond purchases without triggering a taper tantrum, elevated inflation figures that fuel rate hike speculation could change that.
Earnings
Better-than-expected third-quarter earnings have boosted equities and Wall Street’s main indexes closed at record highs on Friday following a strong U.S. jobs report and positive data for Pfizer’s ($PFE) experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19.
Companies reporting in the coming week include entertainment company Walt Disney ($DIS), drugmakers AstraZeneca ($AZN) and BioNTech ($BNTX) along with Softbank ($SFTBY), PayPal ($PYPL), Coinbase ($COIN) and AMC Entertainment ($AMC),
China
The top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are set to meet in Beijing from Monday through Thursday, where the decision-making Central Committee could give the go-ahead for an unprecedented third term for President Xi Jinping.
The meeting comes at a time when growth in the world’s second largest economy is faltering amid stringent measures to curb virus outbreaks, a clampdown on the property market, energy shortages and disrupted supply chains.
Data on Sunday showed that Chinese exports slowed in October, but still beat forecasts while imports fell short of forecasts, pointing to continued weakness in domestic demand.
5 YEAR BEAR MARKET AHEADMY Chart clearly show's that SPX just completed it's 5th wave expansion after major 4th wave which was ended on 2009
As per NEO wave analysis the ''TERMINAL 5 TH WAVE'' in S&P500 INDEX is ended this month after a spectacular Rally for 13 years.
Now the game has to change on the hands of BEARS for at least 5 years.
I invite any querries about my wave counts and timing.
B.selvam ,B.E,MBA,
ANALYST