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US500SHORT

SPX Overbought - FOMO - Fib .382 REJECTION SHORTThe operating theory behind a pivot rally is that once the Fed stops raising rates, gamblers have a period of time to enjoy one last melt-up rally before the wheels come off the bus due to rate hikes. It never enters their minds that the melt-up already occurred and now they are sitting in a bull trap. The year-end melt-up was a bust in both 2007 and 2008 but never mind those inconvenient facts. Next week PPI and QT and $40Bill in New Debt -- Will NOT make this market happy
SP:SPXShort
by CapeAfrican
5
S&P 500 INDEX 04 nov 2022 Long Term Analysis (Daily Time Frame)Hi everyone, Here is my 04 November 2022 long term S&P 500 INDEX analysis. #SPX To date ( 04 Nov 2022) I have deduced that the market offers two scenarios. The first one (the most likely one in view of the geopolitical and economic conditions from a macroeconomic point of view) would be a continuation of the decline. I have estimated this scenario to have an 80% chance of success, either from a technical point of view or 25 out of 26 indicators are either neutral or bearish. Or from a macro economic point of view where today we have just learned that the unemployment rate is back on the rise (3.7%). The second scenario, less likely, would be to follow the rise of the second half of October, then succeed in reversing the trend and breaking the descending channel in order to resume a long-term uptrend. 20% chance of success. RED SCENARIO: Personally and in view of the different technical and economic factors I think that the red scenario has a better chance of being realized. It is not unlikely in the coming months that we will return to test the support area of $3550 or even that we break it to continue the decline. The economic conditions to continue the decline are mostly met, they will remain to break with high volume down this support area while remaining in the channel. Once this support zone is broken, we have a very high probability of testing the support line of $3235 and why not that of $3000. However, beware of the latter, which is a psychological level that is very popular with traders. And finally if the conditions have not improved by then, or even worse have deteriorated. We could "maybe" have a continuation of the decline to the low reached during the covid, ie to the resistance zone of $2250 This final hypothesis is really to be taken lightly. BLUE SCENARIO: Much less evident the blue scenario is still not impossible, it would require however many conditions which are for the moment not present. The first and most important would be global economic conditions (Decrease of embargoes with Russia, Decrease of interest rates, Decrease of inflation, Decrease of unemployment rates etc...) Secondly and simultaneously it would be necessary that the technical indicators begin to consider a reversal (Important RSI divergence in Daily see in weekly, crossing of the mobile averages etc...) And thirdly, and strongly helped by the first two conditions, the price should break the bearish channel with high volume to consider a possible reversal. During this break we would have a strong chance to observe a reversal pattern and probably a strong RSI divergence. If all these conditions are met, then we could envisage a long-term upward turnaround. Conclusion: For now the S&P500 is bearish and has a strong chance to continue its fall in this bearish channel, however we do not lose hope to see a reversal happen in a few months/years. For that we will have to respect some conditions but as we know in the financial markets, nothing is impossible. If you have any questions, I remain at your disposal in the comment space.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn35464780
1
Selling SPX into rallies.US500 - 7h expiry - We look to Sell at 3807 (stop at 3847) Trades at the lowest level in 8 days. Broken out of the wedge to the downside. The formation has a measured move target of 3629. We are trading at oversold extremes. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. 3810 has been pivotal. Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 3807. Our profit targets will be 3672 and 3629 Resistance: 3807 / 3810 / 3845 Support: 3672 / 3629 / 3600 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
US500: Intraday Technical AnalysisUS500 Intraday Technical Analysis: the US500 took rejection from 3900 validating the double top resistance with bearish divergence on all major indicators. The price action of US500 is currently in two rising wedge formations one in intraday with rising wedge upper breakout at 3870 and lower breakdown at 3868. While the larger one has an upper breakout level at 3920 and lower breakdown at 3856. My idea for intraday is still short day at strength with entry after rejection of 3870 and tp and previous lows of 3845. If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by JBShark
Selling SPX into a mild rally.US500 - 9h expiry - We look to Sell at 3809 (stop at 3851) Following yesterday's bearish candle, the overall trend lower looks set to continue today. A bearish Head and Shoulders is forming. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 3689 and 3640 Resistance: 3813 / 4325 / 4640 Support: 3690 / 3270 / 3000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
4
SPX to stop climbing?US500 - 7h expiry- We look to Sell a break of 3812 (stop at 3867) Prices have continued the bullish move higher and resulted in 3 consecutive positive days. A lower correction is expected. Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation. A break of 3813 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. Further downside is expected. Our profit targets will be 3680 and 3650 Resistance: 3863 / 4280 / 4550 Support: 3813 / 3505 / 2800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA
SPX - Relief until the FOMC meeting? In tandem with what we predicted last week, the market experiences wild swings up and down. By yesterday's close, the SPX was up approximately 5.3% from its 2022 low. Then today, even prior to the U.S. market open, ES1! continuous futures are already pointing to another appreciation of at least 1%. With that being said, we expect the market to continue showing signs of relief until the FED meeting between 1st and 2nd November 2022. Indeed, we think it is likely that the SPX will try to break above 3800 USD today; if it succeeds, then it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. In such a case, we will pay close attention to other potential resistance levels at 3850 USD and 3900 USD. Despite short-term bullishness, we remain bearish in the medium and long term. Furthermore, we expect the selling pressure to return to the market after the FOMC meeting. Our views are based mainly on macroeconomic factors. However, at the moment, we abstain from setting any price targets. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. Additionally, the red arrow shows declining volume for the past three sessions, reflecting a cool-off in the selling pressure. If the price holds above the 20-day SMA, it will be bullish for the short term. Technical analysis - daily time frame The RSI points to the upside; the same applies to the MACD and the Stochastic. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of SPX. Two moving averages are still in the bearish constellation. We will monitor the price's ability to retrace toward the 20-week SMA and the 50-week SMA, which would represent a strong correction of the primary trend. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is turning neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
36
SPX - Price target at 3500 USDWith the FED reiterating its hawkish stance this week, we are growing less optimistic about the stock market. Indeed, we believe the FED will worsen economic conditions by raising interest rates later this month. As a result, we think a risk aversion will creep back into the market and lead to further weakness among stock titles. Furthermore, we believe the stock market will drift to new lows over time. Because of that, we have no reason to change our bearish bias on SPX. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 3 500 USD. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. It can be observed that SPX is down approximately 17% from its all-time high value, which is just 3% away from the bear market territory. Ideally, we would like to see the market drop by that magnitude. That would further confirm our bearish bias. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI's bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. Additionally, it shows simple support and resistance levels for SPX. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
50
SPX still not positive.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3679 (stop at 3721) Prices have continued the bearish move lower and resulted in 3 consecutive negative days. We look for losses to be extended today. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 3690 and should cap gains to this area. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 3572 and 3550 Resistance: 3690 / 3800 / 4110 Support: 3570 / 3210 / 2800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA