SPX - Relief until the FOMC meeting? In tandem with what we predicted last week, the market experiences wild swings up and down. By yesterday's close, the SPX was up approximately 5.3% from its 2022 low. Then today, even prior to the U.S. market open, ES1! continuous futures are already pointing to another appreciation of at least 1%.
With that being said, we expect the market to continue showing signs of relief until the FED meeting between 1st and 2nd November 2022. Indeed, we think it is likely that the SPX will try to break above 3800 USD today; if it succeeds, then it will further bolster the bullish case in the short term. In such a case, we will pay close attention to other potential resistance levels at 3850 USD and 3900 USD.
Despite short-term bullishness, we remain bearish in the medium and long term. Furthermore, we expect the selling pressure to return to the market after the FOMC meeting. Our views are based mainly on macroeconomic factors. However, at the moment, we abstain from setting any price targets.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX and two simple moving averages. Additionally, the red arrow shows declining volume for the past three sessions, reflecting a cool-off in the selling pressure. If the price holds above the 20-day SMA, it will be bullish for the short term.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
The RSI points to the upside; the same applies to the MACD and the Stochastic. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of SPX. Two moving averages are still in the bearish constellation. We will monitor the price's ability to retrace toward the 20-week SMA and the 50-week SMA, which would represent a strong correction of the primary trend.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is turning neutral.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500SHORT
SPX - Price target at 3500 USDWith the FED reiterating its hawkish stance this week, we are growing less optimistic about the stock market. Indeed, we believe the FED will worsen economic conditions by raising interest rates later this month. As a result, we think a risk aversion will creep back into the market and lead to further weakness among stock titles.
Furthermore, we believe the stock market will drift to new lows over time. Because of that, we have no reason to change our bearish bias on SPX. Accordingly, we stick to our price target of 3 500 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. It can be observed that SPX is down approximately 17% from its all-time high value, which is just 3% away from the bear market territory. Ideally, we would like to see the market drop by that magnitude. That would further confirm our bearish bias.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI's bearish structure remains intact. MACD and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral/slightly bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. Additionally, it shows simple support and resistance levels for SPX.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 (US500) - Short from bearish orderblock ✅Hello traders!
⁉️This is my analysis on US500.
Here we are in a strong bearish market structure, I expect price to fill the imbalance above and to reject from bearish orderblock. My target is sell side liquidity around price level 3555.
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SPX still not positive.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3679 (stop at 3721)
Prices have continued the bearish move lower and resulted in 3 consecutive negative days.
We look for losses to be extended today.
A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve.
Resistance is located at 3690 and should cap gains to this area.
We look to sell rallies.
Our profit targets will be 3572 and 3550
Resistance: 3690 / 3800 / 4110
Support: 3570 / 3210 / 2800
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
S&P500 (US500) - Short from bearish orderblock ✅Hello traders!
⁉️This is my analysis on US500 .
Here we are in a bearish market structure, so I am looking only for shorts. I expect a sell-off from if price fills the imbalance above and rejects from bearish orderblock.
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US500 long term analysI´m bearish on indicies.
We are in a seasonal bearish period with an bullish dollar that seeks yield and has also a seasonal tendecie to go higher (wich is bearish for foreign currencies and indicies)
We se commodities breaking lower lows wich is bullish for dollarn and bearish for indicies.
I think 2900 is a level that could be reach this year.
US500 IS DIVING DEEPER INTO BEAR MARKETAfter policymakers have shown more appetite for interest rate hikes, S&P500 recorded its lowest close in almost two years and it is 24% down from its record high.
The technical indicators on 1H graph are also putting the index into bear territory, with MACD histogram below 0 and keeps decreasing and RSI well below 50 neutral line.
If the downtrend continues, the index might reach and test levels of around 3530 USD. If opposite scenario occurs, the price might test its previous high at 3800 USD.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Selling SPX into a rally.US500 - Intraday Expiry 9pm UK - We look to Sell at 3777 (stop at 3836)
Sentiment remains negative despite the pull-back higher in prices.
We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher.
Horizontal resistance is seen at 3800.
Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 3640 and 3600
Resistance: 3800 / 4155 / 4322
Support: 3640 / 3280 / 2800
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
US500 | A Small Correction Before The Next CrashUS500 | A Small Correction Before The Next Crash
All the market is going a bit crazy these days.
On indices, it has been a bit more stable when it comes to technical
perspective.
the price has moved lower but it has respected the technical perspective
related to the price movement.
Today we can see that the price is already correcting and this is
showing that we can have another selling opportunity very soon again.
Targets on the chart.
Thank you and Good Luck!
Selling previous support on SPX.US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3834 (stop at 3889)
The medium term bias remains bearish.
We can see no technical reason for a change of trend.
A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 3840 and should cap gains to this area.
We look to sell rallies.
Our profit targets will be 3701 and 3680
Resistance: 3840 / 4150 / 4320
Support: 3700 / 3280 / 2475
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
S&P 500 BEARISH OUTLOOKThe major US indices, including S&P 500, are continuing to plumed after the Fed rate decision yesterday. The interest rate reached 3.25%, as it was predicted, but the forecasts are that the interest rates will keep increasing into the entire 2023 as well, reaching levels of 4.6%
The technical indicators are suggesting a downtrend as well, MACD histogram is below the 0 line and the RSI is well below the oversold 30 line.
If the trend continues the price might test its levels at 3670, but if it reverses, it might test its previous high at 3958.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
⁉️ US500 - Market AnalysisHello traders!
⁉️This is my analysis on US500 .
Here we are still bearish , so I am looking only for shorts. I expect price to retrace after taking out sell side liquidity, to fill the imbalance and to reject from bearish orderblock.
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S&P - Short IDEAWe hit 1h OB- highs and 4hOB above, sslq bellow is looking juicy as ICT says
just a potential scenario
US500 shortWe are in a recession, although the white house changed the definition of a recession when they released the second negative gdp quarter stats. Is this the key level where we will see a sell off?
I’m going short around 4330/4350
Looking for price to come back down to 3300/3000
Entry pure technical analysis come back to touch top of a channel in a lower time frame down trend.
This is only the beginning.