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S&P500 - When will the upside finish?From a while we have been following the idea of SP500 following a double zigzag to the upside targeting 4300+. We believe this upside to be temporary as per the structure of the downside leg from January's top and the low volume of the recent upside. In this previous post we outlined the idea of the last C wave of the second zigzag to be about to start, and a possible microcount is showed in the main chart. The microstructure of the last bounce suggest it to be the beginning of another leg up (5-wave). We will therefore search for another long entry in micro wave ii, ideally with a retest of the greenzone. A breach of 3900 will suggest the bearish scenario and the possibility of the primary wave (B) to the upside to already be finished. We will update below. Happy trading!
U
by GMR-Capital
S&P 500- In the target boxHello traders! As per previous posts, we believe the SP500 to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside correcting the donwtrend from January's 2022 top. Here is the count on the daily time frame: Price action shows this primary wave (B) unfolding as a double zig-zag. The structure of the last decline from 4194 seems a 3-3-5 that would complete wave B of the last zig-zag, thus providing a setup for trading the last leg up of primary (B) to 4300+. From a pattern perspective, we can see the bearish wolfe wave target at the main downtrendline in blue. Will search from long setups lower in the green target box and will update below. Happy trading! GMR
U
by GMR-Capital
2
A brief history of DXY and the RSIThere are just some of the Key points on the chart but the real trick is to watch the RSI here ( the blue line above the US inflation index at bottom of chart) The US inflation indicator shows RED after 1995, when inflation is above the 2% dictated by the FED as Good. Inflation peaks are marked on chart with thin solid vertical lines. Compre these to RSI and PA levels The USA was in an inflation explosion from 1979 to 1984 and it reached a height of 14% before turning down The Thing to note here is the value of the $, as inflation rises, so does the value of the $, logically I suppose. As inflation is fought with higher interest rates ,the $ becomes a money earner, for the banking industry and savers Look at the RSI, See how it rises, Ranges and then eventually dips Then RSI Ranges, as does the $ till we get to July 1995 and the Barings banks Saga. This was a banking collapse and yet, Look. the $ GAINS value and RSI drives higher, Tops out and Drops, Then again in 2008, another banking crash, this time Leman Brothers cause a Loan repayment Surge, bit like a bank run Again, at a time of Stress, the $ Pushes up in value, RSI Runs high and Tops Since then, RSI has remained mid / high and topped out again in July 2022 Since then, it has retraced and has recently tried turning again But now, the $ has less demand globally as Countries around the world Stop using the $ as international trading currency, including Oil So the question is, Where for the $ now Technically, It has been up in the higher range RSI for a long time, inflation is High and as we can see from the past, PA tends to drop
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
easyMarkets Dow Jones Daily - Quick Technical OverviewAfter a recent decline, the DJIA index found support near the 32700 area, which is near the lowest point of December. If, eventually, that support area surrenders, this could clear the path towards the 31740 zone. Alternatively, a break above a short-term tentative downside resistance line, drawn from the high of February 14th, could help attract the bulls back into the game. More of them may join on a move above the 200-day EMA. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:DOWUSD
by easyMarkets
S&P500 - Temporarily exhaustedHello traders! As presented in previous posts, we believe that price has showed to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside to correct all the downtrend from January 2022 high. Price is likely to ungoing the last leg up of this upside correction. Low volumes and over entusiasm about the soft landing narrative suggest us that this rally can go up to 4300+ before reversing, but we do not take higher highs as our base case. However, price arrived at a big resistance, with the blue wlfe wave still valid, and managed to exhaust the upside steam creating multiple divergences e lower lows. Also, VIX seems to be about to breakout a bullish wolfe wave : We sometimes get insights by looking at VVIX, which is the same algorithm of the Vix applied to the VIX itself: Here we can see that VVIX already broke out, suggesting bullishness for the VIX and bearishness for the index. We are therefore short from @4152. Our stop loss is already placed on entry. Our first target is 3940, we will re evaluate the price action if we get there. Breaking 4090 confirms more downside. Happy trading!
UShort
by GMR-Capital
2
S&P500 - Tracking the upsideHello traders! In the previous post we explained our two different scenarios. However, since price has taken out 4136 and the main descending trendline, we are now considering only the bullish scenario and thus we believe to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside targeting 4300+. This primary (B) is unfolding as a double three, and with last ABC labeled on the main chart. Price took the most bullish possibility, that we were not expecting, so our previous short trade was stopped out, but thanks to our risk management rules the loss was reduced and we are still positive in the month of February. Bigger picture We will just track and monitor the price action spotting possible setups. Happy trading!
U
by GMR-Capital
5
S&P500 - Decision timeHello traders! As stated in our previous post, linked in the description, we are following two main scenarios on S&P500. According to the bullish scenario, the 5 waves labeled in the chart should form a leading diagonal for wave i of C in a primary wave (B) to the upside targeting 4300+. In this case we should now retrace in wave ii of C. According to the bearish scenario, that movement from december's low would be a triple three correction in wave 2/B and thus we may reverse in a wave 3/C aiming to lower targets (3640 big wolfe wave target) or possibly lower lows. See the chart below We managed to catch a short entry at @4076.1, and we are going to hold it (stop loss on entry) following this plan: -if prices arrives to the 3900-3940 area, which is a target in both scenarios (and wolfe's wave target), we will close at least half of the position. At that point we will evaluate whether the decline is impulsive (motive wave) or corrective( three waves). In the former case, once it extends lower and if actvivates the red ascending broadening wedge creating a 5-waves pattern, we will search for adding a short at the retracement. In the latter case, we will evaluate bullish setups around the 3900 area for the green arrow path in the main chart, possibly keeping a piece of the initial short to be hedged for both scenarios. - If prices spikes up and kicks us out at entry, we will reevaluate a short position around the 4125-4135 area, for a completion higher of the above mentioned leading diagonal, ad apply the same plan to the new short. As we e xplained before we believe that fundamental news and events unfold simultaneously with the price action, and all the information available is encoded in chart patterns. Nonetheless, it is clear that the FOMC will bring high volatility, so it is important to reduce risk and have a clear plan prepared. Will update below, happy trading ;)
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
6
S&P500 - Structure seems completedHello traders! As we can see from the chart, price completed five waves to the upside for what can be a leading diagonal for wave C of (B) to the upside, or a triple three in wave 2/B of (C) to lower lows (check the post below). We interpret the structure in this way since every wave up in this 5-wave structure was a three-wave, price overxtended creating divergences on smart money indicator and RSI. In the chart above the label follows the bullish count (first one). But both a leading diagonal both the bearish count will give us a relevant move to the downside. This is the bearish count with the bearish patterns (red ascending broadening wedge and black wolfe wave). We are short from @4055.2 with stop loss at @4084.5 Our first target that will cover both scenarios is 3920. We will evalaute then possible lower targets in the bearish case 3720 and 3500.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
2
THE EASIEST ARBITRAGE EVER IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF OUR EYES? LONG US, SHORT EU Hello, these two charts seem to show an identical background situation for the two economies (US and German), however, the economy in US and EU is very different (among other explanations, TFP - total factor productivity is, and always has been positive in the US, while it is negative and, most importantly, decreasing since many years in Europe; US has never lowered rates below 0, while Europe did, breaking the Marxist M-G-M model, which means Money-Goods-Money1 cycle, and transforming it into a mere M to M1 model, money to money1, where M1 >M, skipping the "Goods" part of the cycle, basically creating a system where Money that creates other money out of thin air). The markets (especially the European ones) are discounting the fact that there will be no recession based on last data, and that we will have a soft landing after all in US. I believe this will not be the case but it is not important now. The important thing is that, European investors are believing that the same will happen in EU, where, however, the increase of interest rates is far from being done, and inflation has not peaked yet! Surprisingly, European investors are continuing to consider the two economies as identical, simply because in the last 40 years they moved together. However, they forget the 10-15 years of QE and the fact that the world after it will not simply continue to be the same as before, as we simply can erase these 15 years of history and put in conjunction the two extremities. They are pricing the two markets as it they were at the beginning of capitalism, while we are probably at the end of it, or better at a new phase of it. A phase in which US adapted to the MDM model by increasing the productive cycle (they have companies like Tesla, Amazon, Google) while in Europe we persevered in the aberration of the M-> M1. LONG US (Dow jones), SHORT EU (Dax) IThis is why, n my opinion, what we have in front of us is a win-win situation. If the markets will continue, in my opinion wrongly, to consider these two markets almost perfectly correlated, while they are going up even if at least one of the two will have a recession ahead, we will be covered in any case. case 1 - recession in USA, recession in EU the recession will hit stronger in Europe-> The position will lose on long US less than what it would gain from the short on EU (DAX) case 2 - no recession in USA, recession in EU double gain (from the on long US and from the short on EU) case 3 - no recession in USA, no recession in EU US economy will perform better then EU : the long position on US will gain more than what it would LOSE from the short on EU It is worth noting that both indices are surprisingly at 8% from their respective peaks of 2021 but the strength of the trend (red line on the second indicator - DMI) is very low. Of course, the strategy will need to be adjusted with the sizes so that every side has the same notional value in USD - What do you think?
DJ:DJI
by edutradinguru