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Downside moment has come for US indexes?Hello Traders, In our previous posts,linked in the description, we've been tracking the last zig-zag of this primary wave (B) as it ascends. Our calculated completion targets fall within the yellow area, coinciding with the bullish descending broadening wedge targets, as well as the point where Y equals Z. This symmetry between the two most recent zig-zags in this corrective wave has informed our decision to set our longs at 13800 and initiate short positions at 13863, anticipating the advent of wave (C) and a potential move towards lower lows. But the price action and chart patterns integral to our proposed count are just pieces of the larger picture. Several other indicators also support the potential scenario we've described. Interestingly, over recent months, we've observed an unusual market behavior. The market has been ascending, despite a dominant narrative of impending recession and rate hikes—factors that typically instill bearish sentiment in retail traders. This resilience of the market is even more noteworthy when we consider its divergence from the Money Supply M2. Historically, the stock market has acted as an oscillator of the Money Supply M2. It's crucial that we view this resilience of the market as a potential strategy to mislead retail traders. When the narrative was bearish, the market not only held its ground but thrived, possibly catching many retail traders off-guard. Adding another layer to our analysis, let's consider the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y). It's currently forming a bullish flag pattern, a positive signal that could potentially lead to higher yields. If this pattern confirms, it would be consistent with lower lows on indexes In our upcoming posts, we'll explore these dynamics and their potential impact on market trends in the short to medium term. We'll also discuss what they mean for our trading positions. We keep in mind that FOMC today can be a good trigger for accelleration to the downside, but another wave up towards 14200 is still a concrete possibility. Stay tuned for more updates, and trade safely in this volatile environment. Bests GMR
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by GMR-Capital
Mega stock and what are meta perspectives? 😳In 2022, Facebook NASDAQ:META performed fantastically and fell -76% from its peak! On the channel, we warned that this was a gift of fate and shares should be bought, because the company still has a huge audience, revenue and profit. Yes, revenue is no longer growing at a rapid pace, but rather falling from quarter to quarter. But the company boldly declared that it was changing the concept of business and moving into the creation of the Metaverses. For half a year, the stock grew by 175% and became the most profitable in the Sp500 index. What to do with the company now? It is not yet entirely clear whether the company will be able to realize its plans in the meta world, but the positive action has already played well. According to technical analysis, there is a slight upside to $290. It was there that the first gap formed, after which the company began a landslide fall. The chart does not like emptiness, so we can see the final upward spurt. But then the stock has downside potential to $136, which is where the strong support is. At this level, we will decide whether to re-enter the stock. 🔰 Now recommendation: stay away from the action. You can think of a short, but only with a short stop. There are more interesting ideas on the market now. You can find even more profitable ideas in the profile header 🎩 If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by Dorado_Crypto
2
Why does Amazon look so bad? 😖 And what expect until end of 23? In period 2021-2022, the entire Sp500 index was pulled by FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google). Of all these five, Amazon looks weakest. Let's see why? Amazon is engaged in Internet commerce 🌐 During the pandemic, the company felt great, as many people were forced to stay at home and order goods online. However, covid ended and benefits stopped. During period of low rates, people got into loans even more strongly. Now that the key rate is >5%, it becomes very difficult to obtain and service loans. As a result, people's incomes have dropped dramatically around the world 📉 Yesterday in an interview, Bill Gates said that development of artificial intelligence will greatly change the industry of searching for information and shopping on the Internet. That is, the head of Microsoft says that because of AI, the business of Google and Amazon will not be sweet 📉 In general, such a situation does indeed take place. Therefore, in a year or two, the familiar abbreviation FAAMG may become: FAM. You can find even more profitable ideas in the profile header 🎩 If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Dorado_Crypto
BTC Up trend 3rd stage or crashing 24800 to 23600 is my target for the bottom falling from the week of 22nd to 31st high of 27800-27400. Note that the 19th of May was not the formation of a Head and shoulders as the right side of that pattern is higher and an H&S pattern right shoulder is always lower. I will wait to see confirmation of this pattern in the next week or 2. If we fall below 23600 then the uptrend is over and we could fall more 22k or 20k, all depending if Biden has to use the 14th amendment or not. In no case will the US be better off, there is no way out The great depression of 2023/24 starts June 1st. BTC will be forced to become a Currency and US law will be forced to just accept it or fall, Exactly how and why BTC was formed. The era of printing money to make only governments rich is over. We The people are rising and a new system of Blockchains will run the world. God Speed to the People!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bigfootInvestments
SPX -More upside before relevant downside for US indexesHello traders! We are still tracking a double three structure for a primary wave B to the upside on the Us indexes. In NDX the structure appears clearer in his last zigzag, and as we argued before a descending broadening wedge and a W pattern have targets above 13600. Even if the wave structure on SPX is less clear, bounce from the bottom show corrective character but bullish pattern are present with higher targets. Below the Inverse Head and Shoulder highlighted: The confluence zone that comprehends the Patterns targets, the fibo EW targets, and the volume cluster resistance is 4235-4326 for SPX and 13615-13900 for NDX. We will hold our long from 12909.1 on NDX up to the confluence zone, where we will reevaluate the price action looking for possible short setups. At the same time we will look for a macro wedge retest on VVIX: Bests GMR
SP:SPX
by GMR-Capital
USDCAD Finally is It ready for a long?On USDCAD, we have great long potential, given the strength of the dollar, which is gradually rising. There will be inflation and GDP data released this week, so we may see some dollar increases between Wednesday and Friday. In this analysis, I have identified a possible long entry point at 1.3340. Please note that this is a setup defined through the Forex48 strategy. Take Profit for a long trade will be at 1.35. Let me know what you think. Happy trading, everyone. Forex48 Trading Academy
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
The FED foresees "mild recession" later this year Multiple interesting developments took place in the U.S. market yesterday. First, CPI and inflation rate came in better than expected (although the core inflation accelerated by 0.1% year over year), sparking a short-lived bounce in U.S. indices, followed by relative stabilization in the market ahead of the FOMC minutes. Then, once the report came in, the market started to decline amid a sudden change in the tone of the FED officials, which now foresee a “mild recession” later this year. This comes to us as no surprise since, already last fall, we noted that the FED projections were implicitly pointing to the recession in 2023 and 2024. However, this shift from an implicit tone to an explicit one is a major development that should not be overlooked, especially as the FED continues to indicate higher interest rates from the current levels. While hiking interest rates is very effective at fighting inflation, which will continue to decline toward the end of 2023, it is hardly bullish for the equity market. Due to that, we maintain a bearish stance on the U.S. market and the price target for SPX at HKEX:3 400. We will pay a lot of attention to banking earnings (starting tomorrow with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo and continuing with other major and regional banks in the following weeks). In general, we do not expect the current earnings season for stocks to be any better than the previous one. To confirm our bearish thesis, we will seek more downgrades in the outlook and decline in corporate profits. Furthermore, we will monitor the labor market, bank deposits, loan delinquencies, consumer spending, and rate of consumer savings (among other important metrics). Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the 1-minute chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the time when inflation and CPI data were released. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the 1-minute chart of SPX and the subsequent price action following the release of FOMC minutes. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Illustration 1.03 The illustration above portrays the daily chart of SPX and fan lines acting as resistance and support levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
31
NZDCAD Long-Short or Long and Short?On NZDCAD, we have the price located in the 0.8375 area. According to my view, there are three possible scenarios, two bullish and one bearish. The first aims at a break of the supply zone in the 0.84200 area. The second scenario aims to wait for a retracement of the price in the 0.82900 area, where there is a very effective demand zone that has generated further demand within it, which will be our entry point in case the market goes down. Finally, the last scenario expects the price to bounce off the supply zone before falling to the demand zone. Let me know what you think. Good trading to everyone, bye.
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Relationship of the Fed interest rate + SP 500 index Logarithm. The time frame on both charts is 1 month. It is worth considering as an indicator of large market cycles in general. I will not describe it, because I have already said a lot about it before. There is a correlation, which is logical, but not always. There are also reasons for this, which I have voiced before. Expensive and cheap money - the regulation of the growth and decline of the U.S. economy (the whole world). The Fed Funds rate , is the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the basis of which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other for short periods (usually overnight). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy setting body of the Federal Reserve, meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate can affect short-term rates on consumer loans and credit cards, as well as the stock market. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in a Federal Reserve Bank account. The amount of money a bank must keep in its account at the Fed is known as the reserve requirement and is based on a percentage of the bank's total deposits. The rate target set by the Federal Reserve is achieved through open market operations. Since the Fed cannot set the rate's exact value through such operations, the actual value may fluctuate near the target rate. The Fed Funds rate is one of the most important interest rates in the U.S. economy because it affects monetary and financial conditions, which in turn affect critical aspects of the overall economy, including employment, economic growth and inflation. SP 500 Index . S&P 500 (SPX) is a stock index whose basket includes 503 stocks of the 500 selected publicly traded companies with the largest capitalization on U.S. stock exchanges. The list belongs to and is compiled by Standard & Poor's. The index is published since March 4, 1957. Major trend (long term) SP500 index. The entire trend. 100th Anniversary Plot of the index during the "Great Depression." SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
SP:SPX
by SpartaBTC
19