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USA vs Japan- Everything is in chart. - Again an easy short, same as i predicted UK Bounce few weeks ago. - This is not a scalp but a Medium/Long term trade. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trading Parts : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short Zone : Now 149-150 ish TP1 : 127-126 ish TP2 : 116-117 ish SL : 165 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - You climb to reach the summit, but once there, you discover that all roads lead down. Happy Tr4Ding !
Short
by thecryer
4
A thought for all bullish callsSPX is up 4.5% since the start of 2023 and 14.5% since its lows in October 2022. As a result, we are noticing an increase in calls for recovery and the beginning of a bull market. However, we are skeptical about these calls. With 2022 full-year results from U.S. banks, we now know their net profit decreased dramatically from the previous year; in the case of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, we saw this trend also in net revenue. Now, we expect companies in other sectors to follow suit and show corporate underperformance in 2022 (versus 2021). We expect that to confirm our thesis about the economy progressing deeper into recession; due to that, we have strong doubts about the sustainability of the current rally. Accordingly, our price target for 2023 stays at $3400. Change in net income for particular U.S. banks - 2022 vs. 2021. Bank of America = -14% YoY JP Morgan Chase = -22% YoY Morgan Stanley = -26% YoY Citigroup = -32% YoY Wells Fargo = -38% YoY Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and sloping resistance. Currently, SPX trades slightly below the resistance. The breakout above the resistance will be bullish in the short term. We would look for a retest of the $4100 level in such a case. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and alternative resistance levels. A breakout above Resistance 1 will further bolster a bullish case for the index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
19
How did the U.S. biggest bank perform in 2022?During the summer of 2022, we laid out a thesis about the stock market progressing in the second stage of the bear market. We said that we would look for signs of corporate underperformance and downgrades in forward guidance within earnings statements for 3Q22 and 4Q22. In the 3Q22 earnings season, many companies began downgrading future outlooks and warning investors of a tough time ahead. For some sectors, inventories rose, and revenue streams showed a decline compared to the previous year's period. With the start of the new earning season, we will pay close attention to the new data, which may or may not confirm our thesis about the market diving deeper into a recession. Interestingly, the last Friday, multiple big banks on wall street announced their earnings statements. These names included JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Today, we will briefly examine the biggest U.S. bank - JP Morgan Chase & Co. This bank has $3.66 trillion in assets and has not posted a yearly loss for more than 15 years. Its earnings report is divided into five segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate and Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, Asset and Wealth Management, and Corporate. The bank’s Consumer and Community Banking segment showed gradual growth in net income and net revenue quarter after quarter in 2022. Furthermore, it maintained relatively stable noninterest expenses throughout the year. However, despite that, it posted a 29% less net income in 2022 versus 2021. In 4Q22, the Corporate and Investment Bank experienced a drop of 27% YoY (year over year) in net income. Additionally, in that same period, this division saw a decline in revenue by 9% YoY, and an increase in non-interest expenses by 10%. As for the full-year 2022, the Corporate and Investment Bank brought in 29% less net income versus 2021. Meanwhile, the Commercial Bank brought $1.4 billion in net income for the company in 4Q22, showing an increase of 15% versus 4Q21. Furthermore, it also enjoyed a rise in revenue by 30% versus 4Q21. Despite that, these two segments underperformed when compared to 2021. For the full-year 2022, the net income of this division dropped 20% versus 2021. The Asset and Wealth segment showed steady growth in net income quarter after quarter in 2022. However, it also suffered a drop of 8% in net income for the entire year 2022 versus 2021. The Corporate segment posted a net loss in the first three quarters of 2022 and a net gain in 4Q22. But for 2022, it is the only sector that posted a loss while still showing significant improvement from the last year. For the full-year 2022, JP Morgan Chase & Co. gained $37.7 billion in net income, which is down 22% versus 2021. Its revenue increased by 5.6%, and non-interest expenses jumped by 6.8%. Meanwhile, the company’s stock declined by 16%. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of JP Morgan Chase stock. The stock declined more than 16% in 2022. 2022 (full-year) vs. 2021 (full-year) Net income 2022 = $37.7 billion (vs. $48.3 billion in 2021; -22% YoY) Revenue 2022 = $132.3 billion (vs. $125.3 billion in 2021; +6.6% YoY) Noninterest expenses 2022 = $76.2 billion (vs. $71.3 billion in 2021; +6.8% YoY) Pre-Provision profit/loss 2022 = $56.1 billion (vs. $54 billion in 2021; +4% YoY) EPS = $3.57 4Q 2022 vs. 4Q 2021 (year over year) Net income 4Q = $11 billion (vs. $10.4 billion in 4Q21; +5.8% YoY) Net revenue 4Q = $35.6 billion (vs. $30.4 billion in 4Q21; +17%. YoY) Net interest income 4Q = $20.3 billion (+48% YoY) Noninterest income 4Q = $15.3 billion (-8% YoY) Noninterest expenses 4Q = $19.0 billion (+6% YoY)
NYSE:JPM
by Tradersweekly
9
Martin Luther King Jr. Day - Market AnalysisKey events: US – Martin Luther King, Jr. Day UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks The recently released CPI is prompting investors to question the Fed's plans to raise the overnight rate above 5%. The market doesn't seem to care, and after this data coincides with the forecast, yields are falling across the curve. Thus, 2-year Treasury yields have fallen to their lowest level since October, with room to fall substantially. If the Fed really does intend to raise rates that much and maintain tight financial conditions, then it appears that the market is not listening to the central bank and not paying attention to what it wants. This only suggests that the Fed's forward guidance is no longer working. The Fed will have to dig into its toolbox to convince the market that it is serious. The central bank may have to talk about accelerating the pace of balance sheet reduction or outright sales of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The market indicates that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end, with the belief that the central bank will be forced to cut rates as soon as 2023. However, the Fed continues to insist that it plans to raise rates above 5% and leave them high and financial conditions tight for a long time. The 2-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level since early October. This is the first weakening in months. Apparently, the rate cut is now embedded in the quotes of not only the federal funds rate futures market. As a consequence, the Fed will be forced to use balance sheet talk as a last resort to ensure that rates remain elevated and the dollar remains strong enough to prevent a stronger-than-acceptable Fed easing of financial conditions. The market, on the other hand, is trying to figure out how much pressure it can put on the Fed to maintain tight financial conditions. If the central bank is serious, sooner or later it will try to fight back. Otherwise, the Fed will lose control of the public discourse and won't be able to tell the markets what direction it thinks they should go. Talk of a higher overnight rate is no longer having the desired effect, so the next option for the Fed is balance. If it doesn't use that option, the markets will take it as a signal that the Fed is okay with easing financial conditions and thus gives the markets permission to continue the rally.
TVC:US02Y
by FOREXN1
7
SPX (S&P500 Index) - Potential Breakout Before Earnings 01/2023 The SPX (S&P500 Index) price is attempting to breakout above $4000, as earning season kicks off on 1/17/2023. Bullish scenario: Inverse Head-and-Shoulder price pattern breaks out above $4000 resistance neckline zone. Resistance targets would then be $4085, $4300, $4600. Bearish scenario: Double-top price pattern rejects price and drops back down to $3900, $3800, $3600. The bottom of the yellow descending wedge trendlines could be an area of support. Note: be aware of any corporate earnings, breaking/global/fundamental news that could override technical chart setups. Fibonacci retracement levels were selected from 3/2020 to 1/2022.
SP:SPX
by NoFomoCharts
1
AMZN LONG expectation Instrument: AMZN Optimum technical indicator: OBV EMA 20 Current signal: LONG Technical indicator win-rate: 47% Days for backtesting: 2220 Timeframe for testing: 1D Forecast day price: 89,8700 Enter point: 90,000 Take-profit: 94,000 Current stop-loss: 86,6913 Multiple for stop-loss strategy ATR(14): 1,1 Average trades per month with optimum technical indicator: 3 Average time for 1 trade with optimum technical indicator: 7 Average profit per 1 trade: 1,76% Projected annual return w/o leverage: 30,2% Technical analysis applicability for 3325 technical strategies: 97% Technical analysis recommendations: Long: 36% Short: 59% Neutral: 5% Stable long-term profit for FOREX, CRYPTO, Equity based on backtesting optimization algorithm. Instant analysis of 3.2K technical strategies
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Trading_investing_2021
Is it the bottom?The graph shows the fall in wage income relative to the rise in prices. We see a rapid decline in the income of citizens. Perhaps this is the effect of the January holidays, because. salaries haven’t yet arrived at the bank and therefore the 3rd week of January is the most depressing. This trend was observed in the period 1979-1981, and it was the bottom of social sentiment. There is one difference - in the past it coincided with the bottom in the stock markets, now, in our opinion, we haven’t reached it. What conclusion can be drawn from these statistics?
FRED:LES1252881600Q
by Financial_Wave
Earn 5 times your risk with ITUBThe algorithm is proposing a trade in ITUB which seems quite interesting. A channel has been formed creating a kind of big flag. The most probable scenario is a bounce to the upper zone again but be ready for a retest of the lows, so if the channel breaks down you can also profit by shorting with a risk reward of 2. If the price bounce as expected, the risk reward is 5 so it's amazing in terms of ratios. You need just 1 trade to compensate 5 loses in similar trades.
NYSE:ITUBLong
by TopChartPatterns
Historical buy opportunity in DisneyThe algorithm is showing Disney in a very important historical support zone. In the chart you can see the historical channel and how the price is approaching the support line. Furthermore the 80$ is a key support that if it's lost could move the price to 43$ easily because there is no other serious support or historical volume. So, by buying slightly over 80$ or even 90$ you can use a very tight stop loss and unlock a potential of 60% to the first take profits or even 120% if the prices goes back to maximum price. Right now and leaving in the first take profits, you can risk 1$ to earn at least 6$ which is a crazy risk reward ratio for any trader.
NYSE:DISLong
by TopChartPatterns
U.S. Stock Market: What To Expect In 2023? 2022 has become the most volatile year in a decade: the world economy is going through tough times, central banks are struggling with high inflation, and the stock market has been under pressure from a bearish trend since the beginning of the year. Will the situation change in 2023 and what should investors expect? The main reason for the decline in the U.S. stock market this year has been higher inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) response to curb inflation. June saw record inflation data which broke a 40-year high and cemented a bearish trend in the market which had been going on since the beginning of the year. As history shows, the average bear market since World War II has lasted 14 months and resulted in declines of more than 30% from previous highs. The current trend has now lasted more than 11 months. From this, we can conclude that statistically speaking, we are two-thirds of the way through. In addition, one of the fundamental reasons why the market will show strong growth soon is the excess of money from investors. A serious bear market forms precisely when people start selling stocks when they are in need of money. Right now, investors are selling stocks simply because they are afraid of losing value. But such corrections always come to an end pretty quickly, replaced by an equally tumultuous rise. Investors are holding huge amounts of cash right now, and the money supply is at record levels. That gives confidence that markets will rebound quickly. Better now is the opportunity to buy companies with strong financial fundamentals at a discounted price. In addition, inflation in the U.S. continues to slow: November data showed a decline to 7.1%, which exceeded analysts' expectations. The dynamics of inflation and the rate of its slowdown are a certain signal of the Fed's successful policy, giving additional hope to stock market participants that the regulator will start easing its monetary policy this year. Basically, experts consider three scenarios for the U.S. economy this year: Optimistic Scenario. Economic activity continues to slow down, and the economy remains under pressure, but growth remains at 1%. Inflation slows at an accelerated pace, and the Fed may cut the rate to 4.25%, by the end of 2023. Moderate Recession. The economy may experience a mild recession during the first half of 2023, but by the second half of 2023, economic activity recovers, the Fed cuts the rate to 4.75%, and signals further easing of monetary policy while maintaining a downward trend in inflation. Stagflation. This scenario is based on a more sustained inflation trend in 2023, which encourages the Fed to take more aggressive steps and allows rates to be cut only to 5.5% at the end of 2023. However, the likelihood of this scenario developing is very low, as inflation is already showing a good rate of deceleration. At the same time, some believe that the U.S. can avoid a recession this year and go with the optimistic scenario. The stock market is supported by strong economic macro data and some issuers have already proven their ability to withstand a rate hike. The stock market has fallen on fears and expectations last year, but in such situations, fear quickly changes to euphoria. There is potential in the U.S. stock market, and we should not rule out the possibility that the S&P 500 index could gain 15% in 2023 from current positions.
SP:SPXLong
by FOREXN1
17