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Republican-led shutdown: What's at Stake for the USD?? Republican-led shutdown: What's at Stake for the USD?? We are four days away from a potential partial government shutdown, and negotiations among lawmakers have yet to produce a resolution. On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries meet in the Oval Office with the president and vice president to negotiate the conditions to keep the government operational beyond March 1. Senate Democrats have been expressing frustration, placing blame on House Republicans, particularly criticizing leader Mike Johnson, for the current impasse. Senator Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat, voiced displeasure, stating, "We're doing this every six months. This is bullsh*t.... we need to do what we were elected to do, fund the government, not shut it down," in an interview with CNN. If no resolution is reached, a partial shutdown is set to commence at 12 a.m. on Saturday. Notably, the last time the US government was on the precipice of a shutdown (Sept- Oct 2023), the USD kept strengthening against major partners like the Euro, with the USD being seen as a safe haven play. But last year, there were a few other factors that could have been compounding this USD-buying activity, including the US interest-rate differential and comments from some Fed members making it clear that policy won’t be changing anytime soon. This time, it's maybe not as clear that there are as strong a set of factors pushing for a robust USD.
by BlackBull_Markets
DXY - Bearish => Bullish 📈📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, DXY rejected the upper bound of the red channel and traded lower. Currently, DXY is hovering around the lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📈 For the bulls to take over, and start the next impulse that would lead to 105.2, a break above the last major high in blue is required. 📉 Meanwhile , DXY would be bearish and can still break the red trendline downward, in this case a continuation till the 103.0 support would be expected. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:DXY
by TheSignalyst
7
JPM, SOME UPSIDE AND A WHOLE LOTTA DOWNSIDEJPM might have a bad week? Maybe bad Feb? idk yet, however, from technicals, it seems like after 181 or so, and especially after $210, there isn't much upside showing. Likely meaning, the risk far outweighs the reward at those levels. IT could be big, and it could be fairly quick. if you're shorting, yeah, these are great times to consider entering. The downside shows all the way to $69 (nice) Does that mean enter short right now this minute? nah but be ready because things could really drop quickly in the coming month or so. idk maybe this?
NYSE:JPM
by nicktussing77
TARGET REACHED - And ongoing to Target 2 - 40,0042The trade analysis we had for Dow Jones couldn't have played out better. On paper and theory, this just rocked to its first target 37,242. But then, it entered into a trending market. This is where it's very tough for breakout traders to get in. This is very tough for reversal traders to trade. This is very tough for range bounded trades to buy and sell. So, all we can do is wait for the trend to continue up and form a new pattern. Or continue holding and raising the trailing stop loss each week. But it looks like the next target is set for 40,0042. I'll wait and observe as it feels top heavy and I don't really have a good strategy to get in right now.
DJ:DJILong
by Timonrosso
S&P500 INTRADAY LEVELS FOR 12/02/2024BUY ABOVE - 5030 SL - 5020 TARGETS - 5045,5060+ SELL BELOW - 5015 SL - 5020 TARGETS - 5008,5000,4992 NO TRADE ZONE - 5015 to 5030 Previous Day High - 5030 Previous Day Low - 5000 Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day. Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move. Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
SP:SPX
by Jagadheesh_JP
S&P 500 - INTRADAY LEVELS 09/02/2024BUY ABOVE - 5000 SL - 4990 TARGETS - 5015,5030,5045 SELL BELOW - 4985 SL - 4995 TARGETS - 4975,4958,4940 NO TRADE ZONE - 4985 to 5000 Previous Day High - 5000 Previous Day Low - 4985 Based on price action major support & resistance's are here, the red lines acts as resistances, the green lines acts as supports. If the price breaks the support/resistance, it will move to the next support/resistance line. White lines indicates previous day high & low, high acts as a resistance & low acts as a support for next day. Trendlines are also significant to price action. If the price is above/below the trendlines, can expect an UP/DOWN with aggressive move. Please NOTE: this levels are for intraday trading only. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
SP:SPX
by Jagadheesh_JP
13
S&P Kissed 5000 levelUSD: S&P 500 at 5000 US asset markets are having a good few weeks. Equity benchmarks are pushing up to fresh highs and last night's US 10-year Treasury auction saw decent demand. Leading the charge in US equities has been the big tech stocks. Just looking across the consensus price targets of the 'magnificent seven', the targets remain anywhere from 6% (AAPL) to 20% (AMZN) above last night's closing levels. The only one of the seven with a lower price target is Nvidia, where this year's 50% rally has overshot a price target largely there since last summer. Whether the psychological 5000 level in the S&P 500 now proves something of a hurdle remains to be seen. But from the equity analyst community anyway, the consensus is that there is more to come. After the Fed/Powell pushed back hard on a rate cut in March, and, the payrolls data reinforced the message, the market's attention is shifting to the May meeting probabilities. We believe the Fed’s hiking cycle is complete and that the Fed will remain on hold at the current Fed funds rate range of 5.25-5.5% until the first 25bp cut in May, after which we expect 25bp cuts in June, July, and September followed by quarterly cuts until the terminal rate range reaches 3.25-3.5% in September 2025, although the risks are skewed toward a June start to rate cuts. On balance sheet policy, we expect the Fed to announce that it will start tapering the pace of balance sheet runoff in May and to end runoff in 1Q25.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Elite_Forex
USACAD, 4x but not 4x more like four and for and x and exTrends marked Price Targets marked All of these trends are fairly strong on their own but it looks like this wants to head down before up maybe to 1.08? 1.22 in the near term sound reasonable? This chart was requested. I don't pay much attention to this chart so let me know if I'm missing something I'd normally pick up had I been monitoring this more frequently. But, I think I got all the important trends and longer term price targets. again, I was hesitant to draw a line, but I think it better shows the downside potential. I wouldn't follow it, I'd expect it to be incorrect, instead focus should be with the trends and price targets.
by nicktussing77
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS (Global Conflict Summary EDITION)Per the council of foreign relations, these are the following current global conflicts. I've included a brief description of each conflict. It's important to understand these if you're planning or already are investing in defense stocks. Per TA, I've labeled bearish price targets, bullish price targets, relevant trends. It looks overvalued from analysis on ITA, but there is upside. I'd say that short term probably favors bulls (talking maybe weeks if not less), mid term probably favors the bears (multiple months), long term will likely favor bulls, but it will depend on the movement we see over FEB and March. Global Conflict Summary Americas Criminal Violence in Mexico The criminal violence in Mexico involves various organizations such as Sinaloa, Los Zetas, Tijuana/AFO, Juárez/CFO, Beltrán Leyva, Gulf, La Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar, and Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generación (CJNG). The violence is attributed to the increase in crime rates and the limited interventions by the state and municipal police. Instability in Haiti The instability in Haiti involves the government, opposition parties, and the international community. The crisis revolves around the dispute over the presidential term and the government’s inability to control skyrocketing prices of commodities. Instability in Venezuela Venezuela is facing an unprecedented social and humanitarian collapse due to poor economic policies, political conflict, and the international community’s unsuccessful attempts to bring about positive change. The conflict involves the government under President Nicolás Maduro and opposition groups. Asia Instability in Afghanistan Since the Taliban reclaimed control of Afghanistan in 2021, the country has further plunged into political and economic instability. The conflict involves the Afghan government, the Taliban, and various local and international actors. Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea have antagonized competing countries. The key parties involved in this territorial dispute are China, the Philippines, and the US. North Korea Crisis North Korea could resort to nuclear weapons in a crisis as it is making significant progress toward implementing a more robust nuclear strategy. The crisis involves North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, and other international actors. Instability in Pakistan Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism and intolerance of diversity and dissent have grown, threatening the country’s prospects for social cohesion and stability. The conflict involves the Pakistani government, opposition groups like the Pakistan Muslim League and the Pakistan Peoples Party, and militant groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Conflict Between India and Pakistan Since 1947, India and Pakistan have been involved in a number of wars, conflicts, and military standoffs, with the Kashmir conflict serving as the catalyst for every war between the two states. The conflict primarily involves India and Pakistan, with the disputed region of Kashmir being a major point of contention. Confrontation Over Taiwan Tensions are rising over Taiwan as China’s power and assertiveness grows, competition between the U.S. and China spreads, and the Taiwanese people develop a distinct identity increasingly disassociated from the mainland. The key parties involved in this conflict are China, Taiwan, and the US. Civil War in Myanmar The civil war in Myanmar escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d’état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests. The conflict involves the National Unity Government, People’s Defence Force, Chinland Defence Force, Chin National Defence Force, Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, and other ethnic armed organizations against the State Administration Council and Tatmadaw. Europe and Eurasia War in Ukraine The war in Ukraine involves Ukraine and Russia. The conflict is over the sovereignty of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, which Russia annexed in 2014. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involves Armenia and Azerbaijan. The dispute is over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is governed by ethnic Armenians. Middle East and North Africa Conflict in Syria The conflict in Syria involves the Syrian government, opposition groups, and various international actors. The civil war began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring protests and has since escalated into a multi-sided conflict involving numerous factions and foreign powers. Instability in Iraq The instability in Iraq involves the Iraqi government, various ethnic and religious groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from sectarian tensions, political instability, and the presence of ISIS. Israeli-Palestinian Conflict The Israeli-Palestinian conflict involves Israel, Palestine, and various international actors. The conflict is over the sovereignty of the Palestinian territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Sub-Saharan Africa Conflict in the Central African Republic The conflict in the Central African Republic involves the government, various rebel groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from political instability, ethnic tensions, and control over the country’s rich natural resources. Conflict in Ethiopia The conflict in Ethiopia involves the Ethiopian government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and various ethnic and regional groups. The conflict stems from political tensions, ethnic disputes, and disagreements over the country’s system of ethnic federalism. Please note that this is a brief summary and does not cover all aspects of the conflicts. For more detailed information, please conduct further research.
CBOE:ITA
by nicktussing77
US Government's Planned $118M Bitcoin SaleThe United States government's announcement of a planned $118 million Bitcoin sale has sparked discussions and debates within the crypto community. The planned sale comes in the wake of the Jan. 8 sentencing of Silk Road Xanax dealer Ryan Farace and his father Joseph Farace for money laundering conspiracy. While some express concerns about the potential impact of this sale on the market, market commentators argue that it's merely a drop in the bucket compared to the recent outflows from Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Grayscale's Dominance: The magnitude of the US government's planned sale becomes apparent when compared to the outflows from Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). According to Steven Lubka, managing director at Bitcoin exchange Swan Bitcoin, the government's sale of 2,934 CRYPTOCAP:BTC is nothing more than "peanuts" when considering that GBTC has sold a staggering 106,575 CRYPTOCAP:BTC worth $4.2 billion since its conversion to a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund on Jan. 11. The latest outflow, totaling 10,871 CRYPTOCAP:BTC on Jan. 24, underscores the dominance of Grayscale in terms of Bitcoin holdings. Comparing the Numbers: The planned government sale constitutes just 1.5% of the total estimated 194,188 CRYPTOCAP:BTC , equivalent to $7.7 billion, it holds from three seizures in criminal cases. This figure is still less than 1% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. The three major Bitcoin hauls and sales by the US government involve 94,643 CRYPTOCAP:BTC seized in January 2022 from the 2016 Bitfinex hack, 69,369 CRYPTOCAP:BTC seized in November 2020 from the Silk Road, and 51,326 CRYPTOCAP:BTC seized from Silk Road hacker James Zhong. Additionally, around 41,000 CRYPTOCAP:BTC is scheduled for offloading in four sales throughout 2023. Historical Perspective: The US government has a history of auctioning seized Bitcoin, with one of the most notable instances being the 2014 auction where venture capitalist Tim Draper acquired nearly 30,000 $BTC. However, recent trends indicate a shift toward selling seized crypto on exchanges instead of through traditional auctions. The last known sale of 9,118 CRYPTOCAP:BTC occurred in March 2023, emphasizing the evolving methods employed by the government to liquidate confiscated cryptocurrencies. Conclusion: While the announcement of the US government's planned $118 million Bitcoin sale has raised eyebrows, experts and market commentators are quick to downplay its significance. In the context of Grayscale's massive outflows and the overall scale of Bitcoin holdings by the government, the planned sale appears to be a minor event in the broader cryptocurrency landscape. As the crypto market continues to evolve, the methods of selling seized assets by the government are adapting, reflecting the maturation of the industry.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by DEXWireNews
2
QQQ TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETS, HOW MANY Q's SHOULD ONE HAVE?Technicals RSI is overextending, however, a little cool down would reset the indicators and trigger buy signals across the board. Bears should be looking for an entry, but not entering yet. Plan out a trade. Bulls should be locking in profits and looking to buy the dip. There are two super short term trends that are taking the price up. They are both rejection trends, which are trending in the bullish direction, in other words, price is going up following those trends. There is a huge rejection trend labeled. There is a mega support trend labeled. There is a strong support trend labeled, which should likely trigger a buy signal should it fall to that support or possibly dip under for a brief period of time. Above 480 starts to increase risk. it can go higher to 500, and then possibly even to 600. 500 is way more likely than 600 on this run. short term, again, could use a cool down to like 393. I would suggest to wait for this cool down to enter expecting bullish movement. With price falling to multiple strong support lines, it is a favorable trade. Price can keep going up. Don't expect it to go down. But understand, if it does, you'll be prepared for that movement, and have a trade with a high potential of profit. If you miss out on a run because you were caution, simply wait for a rejection point and jump in short. Ride the wave down, then enter your long position. In other words, don't chase the movement, let the movement come to you, let it move past you, then ride the movement in your desired direction. Linking my other QQQ posts and SPY posts I usually don't TA these because I tend to trade the 3x leveraged (FNGU FNGD is one of my favorites), and I tend to get predictions wrong on these two. Will link some old ones talking about spy to 480 in the election year. MY MISTAKE was I thought the election year was 2023, so it was way off.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by nicktussing77
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The British currency completely duplicates the situation with the EURUSD currency pair. Here, we also continue to stick to sales. The main target according to our previous trading ideas is the level of 1.25000 . Technically, and according to volume analysis, we have both an entry point and a resource in the form of bid-accumulations, due to which we assume a downward impulse will be generated. On Thursday, that is, today a large number of economic events from the EU and the USA are expected. . Therefore, most likely today will be decisive and the instrument will finally shoot down, as we expect. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Middle East escalation and a Surging US dollar In a significant escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, Iran fired missiles into Iraq, resulting in casualties. Reports indicate that at least one missile hit very close to the US Consulate in Erbil. Beyond the provocation towards the US, the act of firing missiles into a neighboring country by Iran is likely to prompt a response. Additionally, unsettling news emerged that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, are collaborating with Houthi terrorists in Yemen to target sailors on merchant ships in the Red Sea. As Asia's liquidity entered the markets, there was an upward movement for the USD. In contrast, major currencies such as EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, GBP, and JPY all experienced losses. Notably, despite the geopolitical tensions, US yields remained supported.
TVC:DXYLong
by Elite_Forex