Possible Correction ?Due to Covid 19 the US30Y has drop. When things gets back to normal, should we expect an increase ?
Usbonds
U.S. 10Y and 1D MA200. End of the road for bonds?The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield has just made contact with the MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1D time-frame for the first time since December 2018! The closest it has come too after that was in January 2020. On both occasions that was the price top.
Additionally the RSI shows an interesting feature. A Double Top (red ellipse) signifies the start of a downtrend.
Time to sell this?
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US10Y: Consolidation leading to 0.900 - 0.950.The 10 YR Yield is posting the first red 1D candle after a strong bullish streak of 5 candles. The 1D chart turned bullish (RSI = 64.680, MACD = 0.012, ADX = 28.379) after 2 months. Assuming the 1D MA50 supports, the price may find enough momentum to consolidate in order to post the final push towards the 0.955 Resistance. Attention is needed as the 1D RSI is waving a bearish flag (only indicator to do so), so keep stops tight.
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Price Correlation MapIf you're following along you will see that I have continued my Correlation research, hit the follow and like button to show support
Following the topic of Correlation here is a visual of what is going on lately, this along a few Forex pairs is a great way to compare and contrast the full list of correlation.
Also US Oil and DXY I didn't add those on this chart because it was not flowing with the image I wanted to show, those are good to make on a separate chart with less noise.
10-YEAR US BOND YIELDS BREAKING DOWN - BEARISH for SPXUS 10-year Bonds have broken out of 2 triangles now and breaking down.
I count 5 waves in this massive triangle that formed between March 8th and June 24th with the final wave "e" itself being a triangle with 5 subways.
Remember - triangles - per Elliot rules - are found either as wave 4's, wave B's (middle of a correction) OR as wave E's as the final "wave" of another bigger triangle.
Since the breakdown out of these 2 triangles, the lower trendline of the larger triangle was tested at least 4 or 5 times from the underside, and each time was rejected - confirming the significance of this lower trendline and the subsequent breakdown in yields.
I anticipate this yield breakdown will accelerate to the downside with strong bearish implications for the SPX, Dow, etc.
An interesting observation is that the 10-year rose after making its low on March 8th - while the SPX made its low on March 23rd - 15 days later.
Bonds yields are not confirming the rise in the SPX since the 10-year broke down on June 24th and now we are 28 days later so the divergence is past due for the SPX to now play catchup to the 10-year and move down.
Cheers!
Cyrus
#US #Government #Bonds 30Y #Forecast #ShortWe are possibly looking at (and forecasting) a 3-touch sell-off on the US Government Bonds 30Y daily chart around resistance at 98'04'3.
Sell-off in about 1-14 days time.
R/R = 5.79% approx.
T Bond US analysisTreasury bonds seems want to go up, but I expect a consolidation before an enventual bullish breakout.
Generally, when treasury bonds go up, stocks market go down (but we must be careful because the big money printing (QE) by the FED could result in a hyperinflation on all markets)
US Bond could become bullishSince more than 1 month a bullish was formed, if we break up the red line, this could be a good long
BONDS OVER STOCKS 2020With equities looking increasingly volatility and valuations as frothy as ever, long term bonds have been quietly outperforming recently. I expect this trend to continue for foreseeable future and for us to rise 5-13% from here conservatively.
The global climate is shifting to reducing risk and buying safe haven assets. Therefore, 20 year bonds will likely continue to be a source that reaps the benefits of capital outflow from stocks and into US treasuries.
Long The Dips On BondsWith the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps to 50bps rate cut, longing 20 year bonds seems like one of the highest confidence trades in the market.
I am bullish on 20 year bonds specifically, and will continue to be until we see a rate hike which I believe is far, far away. We are likely heading into a global recession within the next 12-18 months, so I rather be on the long side of risk-off assets in anticipation of a move higher.
US10Y US bonds shortSo finally it looks like we will go to zero and very soon. huge spike lower, now we need to go and test it, I can imagine some kind of emergency cuts and QE starting just around the corner
Bond yields rising, divergence shows a slight 2020 SPX pullbackThe S&P 500 has been on a tear in 2019, rising nearly 30%, from low of the year to high it has surpassed the 30% growth mark. However, there has been a prevalent divergence between bond yields in the US and the SPX, which are correlated to move the same way. This means there could be a convergence in the near future to get back to the "regular" pattern.
Over the past few months bond yields have been climbing slightly, but year to date there has been a 23% drop in the 30 year and 31% drop in the 10 year. About the same amount as the S&P has risen. Those bond yields have risen about 15% since September while the S&P 500 has risen exponentially. This means we are expecting a pullback in the S&P 500 since the bond yields have started to do their part and slowly rise. We are not expecting a 30% gain in bond yields, not a 30% drop in the S&P 500 but a moderate move to regularity. Based on the monthly, the S&P 500 could pullback 9.5% to the 2926 level where the impulse for the move higher happened. The volume is extremely weak on all time highs which is another indicator. From there the upside potential is 3500+ based on a Fib extension.
If the S&P 500 pulls back we do expect another rise of 15+% ideally in bond yields. This can be contributed to eased tensions between China and the US and a hold on rate cuts from the US Fed.
Trade war escalation Bonds could stay overbought for a while due to flight to quality and low rates around the world and reach even 1% in the event of an escalation of the trade war between the USA and China. Nevertheless risk reward in holding US Treasuries is poor,
US 10YR: Time to buy Bonds.Regardless of the fundamentals that are dominating the global economic scene (trade wars), there is an interesting long term, and rather cyclical from the looks of it, pattern developing on the U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield.
The pattern is a declining Head and Shoulders formation on 1W. The last two times that the same pattern emerged (in 2017 and in 2015 - 2016) the price broke higher very aggressively, surpassing the peak/ head of the formation. In 2017 the patterns duration was around 280 days while in 2015/2016 around 460 days. We are currently on the 360th day of the running pattern. Purely from a long term technical perspective it may be the right time investing in these bonds.
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United States Headed Towards A Recession? The ten year yield peaks about 6 months to 14 months before two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a technical recession). Right now, from our peak in this current cycle we are 6 months divorced from a peak in the yield. Moreover, 3 year over 10 year yields inverted recently a signal that a recession is in the not too distant future. However, massive stimulus in the form of quantitative easing has significantly pushed down the 10 year yield distorting this market. Moreover, the 3 year over 10 year only inverted for around five trading days and is no longer inverted whereas the same ratio inverted for several months in 2000 and 2007. Overall, we are probably not going to see recession from Q2 into Q3 of 2019, but it is in our future whether its later this year or 2021.
Treasuries Going Higher StillDespite the roller coaster in the stock markets, the treasuries could still be pricing in a contraction in the economy. The higher the 10 Year and 30 Year Treasury prices go, the lower the rates get on the longer end of the yield curve.
With the current setup in the US 30 Year T-Bond, there is support on the Minor Pivot Stack and the Monthly Pivot Range high. This is a setup I call an Almost Super Pivot Stack, which is higher probability trade setup.
There will need to be confirmation though, of enough strength to warrant a long position.
Hence, go long the March contract of the Ten Year Treasury if the price exceeds 146'01, then place your stop loss at 144'25 and a profit target at 148'22, for a good risk reward trade.
Use the CBOT contract, symbol USH2019, with any NFA registered U.S. futures broker, both regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Long US 10year Treasury Bond $ZNWith WTI declining nearly %30 in a short time span and global growth slowing. Investors are long US TBONDS as they are willing to tolerate lower yields from bonds in anticipation of lower inflation and slowing growth.
Bonds rising will have a wide ranging market influence. From yields falling, to equities under performing to Japanese investors seeking domestic risk investment and therefore halting capital exports.
This will mark a turning point in the business cycle for month to come and will challenge active and passive investors and money managers to rethink their portfolios, possibly even rotate into other assets. We are still in the infancy of this turning point , tops and bottoms are ripe for picking.
[LW] BONDS looking for a rallyI'll try to catch a bigger swing with Larry Williams on 30y US Bonds. He predicts bigger rally at around Xmas
