Usbonds
#DXY Crisis or ..? #US10Y #EurUsd #Crude US 10 Year Bonds - #US10Y - Yield is surging above 3% these days while US #Crude Oil is hitting new 4 years high around 73 Dollar ,
this reminding me back to 2014 while #US10Y was likely on an effort to reach 3% and US #Crude was above 100$ , and the point is the Dexy #DXY was like on lows around 80 , and what happened ?
the #DXY - US Dollar Index got surged to hit a fresh high at the end of the year , #Crude got cut halved likey below 50$, and the #US10Y backed to below 2% - and #DXY started a rally of 15% from it's lows to it's highs ,
this freaking me off , is this going to happen again ? while #DXY starting a rally off to 95 - regardless this 95 level is such a strong resistance and it's what it is now 94.25 it has made a 7% rally since it's recent lows earlier this year on around 88 or so- and aiming to reach 100 and perhaps a dream of 105 again and the US Government 10 Year Bonds is on it's all time high above 3% and the #Crude at the same position ;
what do you think ? would #Crude #Oil got Crush losing it's 50% of value ? or #EurUsd as it the crisis may start in Italy would got plunged below 1.1 or #Gold would it crush to miss the 1250 and trade below whether it could be brief or not .
this might put these 3 on track for the rest of the year for us maybe we could save our lives before we sank on market's deep imaginations !
#SahabYazdan
#DXY
#US10Y
#Gold
US Government Bonds getting hotUS Bonds getting hot, not boring at all. Here 2, 5 and 10 Yr Yield comparison.
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US Bonds 10 Year Yield broke the boxUS Government Bonds 10 year yield already broke clusters and getting closer to the trend line, too many opportunities in the market but don't forget... buckle up!
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US 30yr T-Bonds Ideal EntryEntry plan is based on the US 30yr T-Bonds Topping Pattern .
Watching the fib retrace area for a high that would establish the right shoulder within the monthly head and shoulder pattern.
Quarterly bull cycle counts point towards a high during Q1 '18 which aligns with the monthly target of February '18. My trading account would welcome an earlier high with open arms but it's entirely up to the market.
Ideally I'd be able to hop in around $160-$161 after a rejection of that fib area and then ride the move down to my first target at $128 (2013 low). I'll probably take profit there and then go long back to the neckline of this pattern before the next move down to $89 (2000 major low). We still have awhile before we see price prepare to turn so this is a watch and wait.
My target reward:risk ratio is at least 5-6:1, again that depends on what price action appears.
I'll publish a more detailed plan as well as my entry if/when that time comes.
For more in depth analysis on this trade and others checkout my site, PatsTrades. Link is in my profile status box.
Thanks!
US 30yr T-Bonds Topping PatternThis is my favorite and the cleanest opportunity I have been able to find across all sectors/markets. I've been watching this develop for quite some time now and the evidence for a large sell-off into the future is piling up. The head and shoulder pattern on the quarterly/monthly is one of the best things in that pile.
We saw a false break to the upside during 2016 but then sold off hard to close below, forming a very large yearly high-test candle. We stalled at support during Q1 and have since rallied into Q2, establishing the neckline.
I'm now waiting for a retest of the fib retrace levels where a right shoulder would ideally form. If that does occur I think we'll see a continuation of this new long-term bearish trend that should head down to the Q4 '13 key low. If the stars align price will then bounce from there to establish a neckline within a much larger head and shoulder pattern with price pulling back to our current neckline and the fib retrace levels which would be sitting right on top of that area. We would then head down to retest the Q1 2000 low.
This entire theory could take between 5-10 years to play out but man is it the perfect candidate for the "big cahuna" title...
Checkout my website @ patstrades.com for more in-depth analysis on this trade and many others. The link can be found on my profile page in the status bar right below my picture.
Thanks for reading!
US10Y Weekly buy?We find different trendlines and an important support at this point. If the stock market keeps rising we might have a lower price, also because commodities and bonds trend inversely (1) we could have a small change in the trend, because both oil and gold have fallen.
1. Murphy, J. J. (2015). Trading with Intermarket Analysis: A Visual Approach to Beating the Financial Markets Using Exchange-traded Funds (Vol. 586). John Wiley & Sons.