TRUMP vs BIDEN : These 7 Charts Reveal AllThese charts will point out not only the difference between 4 year terms, but also the effect of the worldwide Coronavirus on different sectors.
Just so you know, I am not advising for or against either candidate solely on what they could do or have done for a certain industry. Instead, this post aims to inform and point out the market's response during each Presidential period. It's also important to consider the effect of Covid (marked by the purple line).
1) DXY / TVC:DXY
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the U.S. dollar's value relative to the majority of its most significant trading partners, including the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%).
Under President Trump, the DXY fell 14% the moment he took office. The DXY then recovered the 14% over the next two years, but dropped again as the Coronavirus crisis was declared a global pandemic in May 2020.
Under President Biden, the DXY rose from post-covid lows by 27%, then retraced 12% unto where it is now trading steadily.
I'll use the following chart below as a reference to how we will be measuring (the difference between inherited point to exit, as seen by the measuring tool).
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -13%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +19%
2) Consumer Confidence Index / ECONOMICS:USCCI
This Index index measures Americans' assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The consumer confidence remained fairly stable under Trump, but fell drastically with the announcement of the Covid pandemic. Biden inherited a declining consumer confidence, but the CCI managed to recover with 57.6% after hitting the lowest lows during the midst of the Coronavirus pandemic.
The CCI has not been able to recover to pre-covid highs, showing that consumers are not yet comfortable with the current state of economic affairs.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -19.5%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -2.4%
3) Inflation / ECONOMICS:USIRYY
Initially the inflation rate was fairly stable under Trump, and then started to fall drastically, dropping -95%... until Covid. Since Biden took office, the inflation rate increased by 550%, but managed to drop back down by 62% after peaking during covid.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -44.8%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +141%
4) S&P 500 / SP:SPX
Trump talked-up the stockmarket as a measure of his presidency when he was in office. (Not that the SPX is something presidents have much control over, but let's take a look at it anyway).
The s&p 500 index of big American firms is higher since Biden took office, but it rose twice as much during Trump’s first 1,000 days in office.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: +63%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +40.8%
5) United States Employment Rate / ECONOMICS:USEMR
In United States, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population. The USEMR was increasing steadily up to 2% when Covid hit.
Under the Biden administration, unlike many European countries, America decided to give money to workers, rather than pay companies to keep people in employment. The share in work fell, but America’s economy bounced back more quickly than Europe’s. Biden administration takes credit for a 4.8% increase since taking office.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: -14.5%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +4.8%
6) Unemployment Rate / FRED:UNRATE
Trump inherited a steadily decreasing unemployment rate from the Obama administration. The UNRATE continued to drop until -25.8% after which, again, covid. It is true that the Biden administration inherited a tough one here, and there has been a 15% increase after bottoming out during April 2023. Unfortunately, this chart seems to be steadily increasing.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: +36.4%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : -39%
7) Money Supply / ECONOMICS:USM2
US M2 refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily-available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits. Historically, when the money supply dramatically increased in global economies, there would be a following dramatic increase in prices of goods and services, which would then follow monetary policy with the aim to maintain inflation levels low.
Trump administration inherited a steeply increasing supply which kept increasing rapidly. Currently, under the Biden administration, the M2 seems to be moving towards an equilibrium.
Change from inherited point to exit:
TRUMP: +45%
BIDEN (inherited point to current) : +7.7%
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Note that these are not THE ONLY charts we can look at. In fact, I encourage you to post yours below! Which other measures are you looking at? Treasury, perhaps Bonds? Feel free to share them and lets compare!
