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Australian dollar pauses after strong gainsThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday, after posting sharp gains at the start of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7133, up 0.10% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Australia this week, but the data released this week is pointing upwards. The AIG Performance of Services Index for December and January punched past the 50-level into expansion territory, with a reading of 56.2, up from 49.6 beforehand. This was the first reading showing expansion in five months. This was followed by an excellent retail sales report for Q4, with gains of 8.2%, which was above expectations. Earlier today, the NAB Business Confidence survey in January jumped 15 points to +3, after a miserable -12 reading in December. However, the survey noted that business conditions weakened. With the government announcing that it will reopen the international borders and allow tourists in later this month, the economy should get a significant boost. At last week's RBA meeting, Governor Lowe said that a hike could be a year away or even longer, but the markets aren't buying it. Lowe is clearly in no rush to raise rates and may not have abandoned the view that inflation is transient and will ease in the near term. The markets, in contrast, are more hawkish and feel that high inflation will prompt the RBA to raise rates in the second half of 2022. In the US, we'll get a look at key inflation data on Thursday. The numbers could have an impact on the size of the expected rate hike next month. The markets have priced in a 33% chance of a 50-basis points hike. The Fed generally sticks to quarter-point moves, but may feel the need to inject a large hike in order to hit hard at inflation and res-establish credibility after taking heat for waiting too long to tighten policy. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7168 and 0.7258 There is support at 0.6987 and 0.6896 AUD/USD is near the 50% Fib of 0.7314-0.6968
by OANDA
High consumer price inflation is good for borrowers, right? Err…Another Market Myth Exposed The Nasdaq index has now declined by 10% from its November high , prompting the mainstream financial media to call it a “ correction ” whatever that means. I think they call it a bear market when it is down by 20% . Many stocks have already fallen by at least that amount, and realistically, it’s all semantics anyway. It’s early days, but what is curious, though, is that high yield , or junk , bonds continue to hold up. To be fair, junk bonds, as measured by the U.S.$ CCC & Lower-rated yield spread reached peak outperformance in June last year and have underperformed since, but yet there have been no signs, as yet, of any rush out of the sector. I heard an analyst on Bloomberg TV yesterday say that he was bullish of credit, particularly junk, because it does well in an accelerating consumer price inflation environment. The theory is that higher consumer price inflation means that companies can increase prices, thereby increasing revenue in nominal terms. At the same time, though, the amount the company owes via its bonds remains the same, thereby decreasing the debt’s real value and making it easier to service. It’s a win-win situation apparently, and that means junk bonds outperform. The opposite should be true under consumer price deflation. Junk bonds should underperform because, with nominal corporate revenues declining, the value of debt goes up in real terms, making it harder for corporates to service it. OK, I thought, channeling Mike Bloomberg’s mantra of, “ in God we trust, everyone else bring data ” let’s have a look at the evidence. The chart above shows the U.S. dollar-denominated CCC & Lower-rated yield spread versus the annualized rate of consumer price inflation in the U.S . Apart from the period of 2004 to 2006, there’s hardly any evidence to suggest that accelerating consumer price inflation is good for the high-yield corporate debt market. Junk bonds were only just being invented by Michael Milken in the 1970s, and didn’t come into popularity until the 1980s, but we can examine corporate bond performance by looking at the Moody’s Seasoned Aaa Corporate yield spread to U.S. Treasuries. Doing so, reveals that, in the first major consumer price inflation spike, between 1973 and 1975, corporate debt underperformed as the yield spread widened. In the second major consumer price inflation spike, from 1978 to 1980, corporate debt briefly outperformed but then underperformed dramatically, as annualized price inflation reached 13%. It goes without saying, of course, that this analysis is just looking at the relative performance of corporate debt under accelerating consumer price inflation. The nominal performance is another matter. Borrowers and lenders ( bond investors ) both got savaged in the 1970s with the Moody’s Seasoned Aaa Corporate yield rising from 3% to close to 12%. The conclusion we must reach is that the level of consumer price inflation does not matter to relative corporate bond performance. It does, however, matter for nominal performance . More semantics, some may say. What really matters is how it affects one’s wallet.
FRED:BAMLH0A3HYCEducation
by ferGOD
NZD yawns as manufacturing index slowsThe New Zealand dollar has posted small gains in Friday trade. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7190, up 0.13% on the day. The pair is down 1.22% this week and is poised to have its worst weekly performance since mid-March. The BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index fell in April to 58.4, down from 63.6. Although this was a significant drop, investors do not appear to be concerned, as the response of the New Zealand dollar has been muted. The index still remains well into expansionary territory, above the 50-level which separates expansion from contraction. Global conditions have improved, which bodes well for the manufacturing sector. The New Zealand dollar plunged on Wednesday, as risk sentiment deteriorated after the US inflation report massively outperformed. This sent global equity markets and risk currencies like the New Zealand dollar sharply lower. The surge in inflation was a signal for many investors that higher inflation is here to stay, despite the Federal Reserve's insistence that the uptick in inflation is transient. How will the Fed respond to the dramatic inflation report? There seems to be some split in opinion within the Fed, which means that the market will be monitoring every Fed utterance with a fine-tooth comb. Fed member Robert Kaplan made headlines recently when he publicly called on the Fed to have a discussion about tapering, warning that there were "excesses and imbalances" in the economy and that the recovery was taking place faster than anticipated. The opposite stance was expressed by Fed member Lael Bainbaird, just one day before the bombshell inflation report. Brainard argued that inflation risks are a "transitory surge" and urged the Fed to remain patient and continue its ultra-dovish monetary policy. She pointed to the weak nonfarm payrolls report last week as an indication that the US recovery still has a ways to go, saying that, "today, by any measure, employment remains far from our goals.” Any hint by the Fed that it could tighten policy by reducing its QE purchases would be bullish for the US dollar. This means that comments from Fed policymakers in the coming days and weeks could have a significant impact on the direction of the US dollar. NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.7350. Above, there is resistance at 0.7417. There is support at 0.7166 and 0.7049
by OANDA
Pound flat after GDP data, US CPI nextThe pound is showing limited movement in the Wednesday session. In European trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4132, down 0.07%. On the fundamental front, US CPI is projected to come in at 3.6% year-on-year in April, up from 2.6% in March. If CPI outperforms, it could raise expectations that the Fed will move sooner to tighten policy. UK GDP numbers were a mixed bag, as the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2o21. At the same time, The monthly GDP outperformed. Analysts had expected the British economy to shrink in Q1, and this was the case, with a GDP read of -1.5%. This was slightly better than the forecast of -1.7%, but pointed to a bruising quarter, as the economy was hampered by lockdown restrictions and trade disruptions due to Brexit, such as the buildup of containers in British ports. The GDP report was also a "cup half full", as March GDP was stronger than expected, with a healthy gain of 2.1%. This easily beat the estimate of 1.3% and was well up from the February reading of 0.4%. The March expansion reflected businesses preparing for the first stage of the reopening of the economy, which occurred in early April. There was more positive news from the manufacturing front, as Manufacturing Production rose 2.1% in March, up from 1.3% and easily beating the forecast of 1.0%. The British economy is still some 8.7% smaller than prior to the Covid pandemic, but the March reading is an indication that the economy is headed in the right direction, and that bodes well for the British pound, which has been on an impressive streak. GPB/USD is up 1.13% this week and has soared in May, with gains of 2.34%. The pound avoided a potential pitfall early in the week, as the results of the Scottish election showed that the pro-independence SNP failed to garner a majority in parliament. This means that investors can count on political stability, and the pound responded with gains of close to one per cent on Monday. GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.4137, followed by resistance at 1.4269. There are support lines at 1.3859 and 1.3727.
by OANDA
Red-hot pound punches past 1.41, GDP nextThe pound is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4144, up 0.20%. The Scottish National Party (SNP) handily won the Scottish election, but investors sighed with relief as the pro-independence party came up just short of a majority. This means that plans for another referendum on Scottish independence may be delayed, which should ensure political stability for the time being. The pound responded with huge gains of close to 1.0% on Monday. The British government has given the green light for a further easing of health restrictions, as of May 17. The positive news on the Covid front has also been bullish for the streaking pound. Attention has shifted to UK GDP for the first quarter, which will be released on Wednesday (6:00 GMT). The market is bracing for a contraction in GDP. This would reflect the lockdown that was in effect for much of the first quarter and had a chilling effect on economic activity. The consensus stands at -1.6% (MoM) and -6.1% (YoY). Inflation concerns have been dominating the financial markets, sending equities lower and boosting the safe-haven US dollar. The US and China, the world's two biggest economies and both showing signs of rising inflationary pressures, which is causing jitters for investors. In China, PPI climbed 6.8% (YoY), above the 6.5% forecast and up sharply from 4.4% in March. The US releases April inflation numbers on Wednesday. The consensus stands at 2.3% for Core CPI (YoY), compared to 1.6% in March. If Core CPI matches or exceeds the estimate, investors may be of the opinion that the Fed may have to tighten policy sooner rather than later, which would be bullish for the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.4137, followed by resistance at 1.4269. There are support lines at 1.3859 and 1.3727
by OANDA
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