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Uscrudeoil

Oil buyers step in at $72/bbl: Is the downside limited?The oil market has seen a lot of activity, with recent developments mostly easing worries about market tightness. In China, Covid-related restrictions have been reinstalled in major cities, triggering rare protests and consequently reducing outlook for oil consumption, in striking contrast to perceived moves to reopen the economy at the beginning of November. On the supply side, reports that the United States granted Chevron Corp permission to restart oil production in Venezuela, as well as Iraq's statement that it will add 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day of oil export capacity by 2025, weighed on oil prices. The oil future curve is no longer in a backwardation state. The price premium that spot WTI held over its future contracts ( 3A1! ; 4A1! ; 5A1! ) has been fully wiped away by the most recent leg of oil depreciation. In essence, the spot price of oil is currently trading at par compared to its 6-month future delivery, indicating that the market is not currently concerned about prompt supply. This condition has not been observed since January 2021, and it may be prudent to be wary of surprises at this time. Bad news is priced, but positive catalysts are still to come? With most bad news already priced in by the market, it may take something new to stop oil prices from falling. In October, the US White House signalled that it intends to repurchase crude to replenish its SPR stocks when WTI prices are at or below about $65/bbl and $72/bbl. Consequently, this area could present a strong price support and thus limit the downside relative to current market prices. Additionally, supply-side risks have not completely disappeared. The G7 has postponed a price ceiling on Russian oil, but Russia said that it may retaliate, restricting supply, if the G7 applies a price cap. In view of recent market developments, OPEC+ could also reinforce its very restrictive supply strategy on Sunday, December 4th. Dip buying to resume at $72? Technically speaking, oil has revised its lows for 2022 and is currently experiencing a negative year-to-date performance. The most recent wave of decline was dramatic, bringing the daily RSI close to oversold territory. In the past, massive selloffs in oil prices, with the daily RSI in oversold territory, produced some near-term price recovery. WTI prices are currently 14% and 30% below their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which appears overly pessimistic considering the persistence of upside risks. Given how sharp the recent downward trend was and the fact that a positive catalyst might happen soon, dip buying may start to come back at these levels.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by Capitalcom
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (11th October 2021)USOIL reached our short-term price target of 80 USD. Because of that we would like to update our idea. We would like to change medium-term price target of 82 USD to short-term price target. In addition to that we would like to set new medium-term price target to 85 USD. Our long-term price target of 90 USD remains unchanged. We continue to be bullish on WTI oil and we expect price to continue its climb. Technical analysis MACD is bullish. Stochastic is also bullish. RSI is bullish, however, it reached overbought condition again. We previously noted that such phenomenon is often followed by correction in price (we noted that before slump towards 75 USD occured). ADX continues to grow which suggests that trend is strenghtening. We continue to be bullish but we would like to see price stabilize at current level first. It is possible that USOIL will move in certain range for while before continuing higher. Support and resistance Short-term support appears at 79.76 USD. Another two supports below that sit at 76.95 USD and at 74.21 respectively. Next strong support sits around 65 USD while major support lies at 61.58 USD. Current short-term resistance sits around 82.50 USD. Another resistance level appears at 85 USD. Here is link to our previous thought from 7th October 2021: Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
US Crude Oil. Time to go long!? FakeoutAnother nice breakout fakeout trade here from the breakout fakeout master ; But how high will it go??? As with the parallel dow trade (see other post) breakouts rarely work. Its nearly always best to see that conditions are overbought or oversold and trade accordingly. The only problem is that I really need to sort out this telegram channel... I'm a high margin trader and so by the time I've posted a trade here for you folks I'm already in a trade and taken lots of profits off the table. That's the best way to trade these fakeouts hit the re-entry on a high margin account with a very fast move into profit, take that and look for a re-entry. There is still though room for profits in this trade. I just trade these fakeouts with swing trades. I will be trading each swing of the 5min and 1 min chart with lots of leverage, moving more to 5 min swings if and as the pattern gets bigger. Very profitable. If the low gets taken out no harm lots of profits have already been banked
OLong
by breakoutfakeout
Which way will oil break???Here we are at the crossroads, US crude oil has put in a lower high and lower low on the hourly charts and we could see another move downwards. This is an interesting trade as we could either see a continuation flag to the upside where we may break major resistance and pile on up to 28. Or we could see a cup and handle reversal pattern and see a retest down to 20-21. As such i'm on the sidelines waiting to see. At time of writing we just saw a breakout fakeout of the flag and so now we could see the cup and handle come into play. Or another go at the flag (5 min moving averages are indicating long trade). In these types of situations its easy to get burnt multiple times trying to trade breakouts. Better to wait until an explosive move comes in which would negate the other potential pattern.
TVC:USOIL
by breakoutfakeout
3
US Crude oil short. 30 min divergence playUS Crude oil has seen a bit of a run up to the trendline and has now put in a strong divergence on the 30 min chart and is overbought on the hourly. We also now have a lower high on the hourly charts and moving averages are still sloping downwards. We could see a retracement back down to the low of the triangle and a fakeout breakout before a move higher. These types of divergence plays are my A* trades with an 80-90%% success rate. I prefer them on the hourly chart as 30 min doesn't give much time movement potential however this one is worth a shot. There is some support though so if we take out the high or the MACDH turns positive bouncing of support I would expect a strong move higher. This nearly always happens when these divergence plays fail, so really its a win win situation. Either we get to short profits or we can reverse for a decent long.
TVC:USOILShort
by breakoutfakeout
2
Just see and decide Hi Guys Last night I warned "DO NOT HURRY YO BUY" because the channel 54-56 and the black trend line Less than 24 hours you see Why I told you that. Any way I suggest you if you bought, please set your SL at your entry point or at 53$ My reasons: 1- The Price could test the last down trend line (Yellow). The uptrending channel (Blue) is not sure yet. 2- The Price hit 53$ at 26-8-19 and 3-9-19 and could test again. 3- If The price hits 53$ and makes new trend line (Dotted) we could test the dotted line at many resistance points (1-1 , 2-2). After that we could have a more reliable channel as you see at the graph. 4- We did sell at last two days with respect lines A and B so we consider them also. So we have a star that all lines intersect each other at that. Guys! Take care about buying and your SL Have good trade
FX:USOIL
by Ali_Mastani
2