USD-BTC
dxy go roof time to go regularDollar hits 16-month high as inflation fears set it up for best week since June
TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar headed for its best week in almost five months against major peers on Friday, amid bets for earlier Federal Reserve interest rate hikes after data this week showed the fastest U.S. inflation in three decades.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, hit a fresh 16-month high of 95.266, on track for a 1.05% gain this week, the most since the period ended June 20.
The euro slipped back to a 16-month low at $1.1436, and sterling dipped to $1.3354, its weakest level this year.
"We close out the week with the USD thoroughly breaking out," Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, wrote in a client note. "I am seeing signs of an impending mean reversion play in the USD, but in this flow, dips are a buying opportunity."
Data on Wednesday showed a broad-based rise in U.S. consumer prices last month at the fastest annual pace since 1990, calling into question the Fed's contention that price pressures will be "transitory" and fuelling speculation that policymakers would lift interest rates sooner than previously thought.
Markets now price a first rate increase by July and a high likelihood of another by November.
"We still think market pricing has room to firm further, especially in 2023, which can further support USD," Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Kimberley Mundy wrote in a client note.
By contrast, "interest rate futures are too aggressive in pricing in (European Central Bank) rate increases for next year considering ECB policymakers are not budging from their ultra‑dovish guidance," giving scope for further euro weakness, she said.
Traders will be watching inflation readings from a University of Michigan survey, along with JOLTS job openings data later in the global day.
New York Fed president John Williams speaks at an online conference, potentially offering a glimpse of how policymakers are reacting to the red-hot inflation print.
European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane also speaks on a panel at a separate event.
The dollar rose as high as 114.30 yen on Friday, the strongest since Nov. 1.
It touched a three-week high of 0.92295 Swiss franc.
Swiss National Bank governing board member Andrea Maechler said at an event late on Thursday the Swiss franc remained in demand as a safe haven investment with market uncertainties elevated due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar sank as low as $0.7277 for the first time in more than a month.
The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as $0.69965, a level not seen since Oct. 14.
In crypto, bitcoin traded just south of $65,000, down from a record $69,000 earlier in the week.
Ether changed hands at around $4,800,within sight of the all-time peak of $4,868.79 reached Tuesday.
ETH Market Commentary 23.09.2021After an impressive breakout, the next leg now follows (there was also the simpler ETHBTC play where buyers have succeeded and are ready to play the next deflection).
On the ETHUSD side, buyers have created a chance for Q4 to attack the highs. Sellers did not want to hold past the C leg which is screaming in advance that sellers are really only masked buyers and the direction decisively favours the topside.
So now with this deflection from the C lows, the previous highs have been taken unlocking tempo for buyers. The next leg is impulsive on account of the trap and unwinding. The position should reach $3,600 in the coming sessions comfortably with $4,000 the next target in scope.
ShortHi guys
Bitcoin seems to have a correction ahead, given that we experienced a tight price movement in the uptrend and the price has come out of an flag uptrend, which if it stabilizes below this pattern, the probability of correction is high, but it is a small risk.
Be sure to consider your loss and profit margins.
Thank you for supporting me with likes and comments.
US Dollar - Should fall soon - Good for BTC and stocksUS Dollar index (DXY) shows the USD is close to the end of a bearish wedge (green lines). This is similar to the last bearish wedge (blue lines). USD should fall soon, possible with further news of infrastructure bill, debt ceiling solved, etc.
When USD falls, everything priced in USD goes up, including BTC, stocks, and commodities like gold and silver. Should be a strong Q4 for everything. Analyst Tom Lee from Fundstrat calls it "the everything rally".
DXY is a false US Dollar indicator, use BTC instead ! Short .94?The DXY, or US Dollar Index, is calculated based a baskets of six US ICE trading partners. Those partners, the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc all practice debasement to some degree, often "less bad" than the US. Right now, I would short the USD on the resistance at 0.94 but I'd rather long BTC.
Here's why...
Federal banks can't stop printing to support the system or it will crumble. FIAT debasement is an assured things since it the only politically acceptable solution.
We'll deal with rising cost of good and decrease availability of goods because they become too expensive and unaffordable. And we'll have the masses saying "I should have bought some bitcoin $50K!"
The charts indicates DXY might go down which could correlate with Bitcoin's breakout this quarter. Enjoy the roller coaster! I might get the time to check the FIAT pairs on DXY to see what each of the chart indicates and if anyone has done that, let me know
The basket is EURUSD, JPYUSD, CADUSD, GBPUSD SEKUSD and CHFUSD
Final note: Some Forex traders have noticed strong reverse correlation between the USD and CHF (Swiss Franc), pay attention to that CHFUSD although the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has to print Francs to buy Euro so the CHF doesn't skyrocket. So DXY is a comparing a basket of manipulated FIAT currencies. Your 25 cents chocolate bar will be worth $5 pretty soon!
SOLUSDTThe current price will drop to the purple line.
If the candlestick closes below the purple line, our first support will be the green line and then the canal floor.
If the price can break the channel ceiling, our first resistance will be the yellow line and our second resistance will be the red line
........
No one but God knows the future, we only state the possibilities
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Good luck