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Usd-cad

USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.3% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). As STIRs reprice lower, we are expecting that to act as a possible short-term negative driver for the USD. Even though lower STIRs should be negative for the USD, as a lot of hikes have been baked in, the growth concerns sparked further risk off concerns this past week, which supported the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (this week’s ISM Services and NFP) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Apart from this past week, the USD has reacted cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad ISM Services PMI or NFP data this week could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close prior highs which acted as local tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed due to higher recession risks. The opposite side to that though is that further concerns about the economy sees more safe haven inflows into the Dollar. Positioning is stretched, so we would prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalyst that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly optimistic and hawkish. We’ve missed most of the move higher in the CAD as our bias has kept us cautious, but the risks are still present and with the currency close to 9-year highs (at the index level) we are looking for opportunities to trade it lower on bearish catalyst. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. With more market participants noticing cracks in the housing markets, a less dramatic decline in house prices could ease some of those concerns and provide some upside. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, big enough upside surprise in CPI or incoming jobs data (showing the jobs market is holding up good) that triggers further hike expectations could provide some short-term upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth, inflation or jobs) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. In recent communication, Governor Macklem started to mention some hiccups in housing. Big downside surprises in house prices could trigger speculation of a less hawkish bank and trigger downside for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of good news priced in for the CAD and yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips
USDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 8th July 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 1.29525 where the horizontal pullback support and fibonacci confluence are to our 1st resistance at 1.30780 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may not break 1st support and head for 2nd support where the horizontal swing low support is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by Rockqet
USDCAD set to stall at or break key resistance?Hello to our subscribers and the TradingView community welcome to Wednesday’s update. With oil tumbling and the USD jumping, we can only think of one pair that benefits from those two moves. The USDCAD is highly driven on both fronts, and the CAD is a commodity currency that generally tracks oil’s fortunes. The USD, well yeh enough said. Last night we saw key moves on oil and the USD. Oil shed up to 10% and briefly traded below the $100 level. The USD shot higher, the index trading above 106.50. Looking at the daily USDCAD chart below, we can see that price continues to trade in a new fast trend after buyers took control on the 8th of June. Since then, we have seen one reaction that set up demand and an HL late in June. Buying has continued into July, with traders retesting key resistance and supply areas that have stood since May. The recent resistance and supply lines up with a longer-term level of supply /resistance that runs back to November 2020. This is our line in the sand that buyers must break to continue the current trend. If we see a break above these levels, it could be game on with 1.31 and 1.32 or higher a possibility. Fail, and we would look for a new move to possibly retest the 1.2850 area. It’s really up to buyers and mainly USD momentum to continue to drive the current buyer move. The Fed minutes are due out today at 04:00 am AEST, and they could play a role in the current short-term USD pulse. Good trading.
by Eightcap
USDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 6th July 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 1.30064 where the horizontal pullback support is to our 1st resistance at 1.30799 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may break 1st support and head for 2nd support at 1.29529 where the horizontal pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
3
USDCAD Potential drop | 4th July 2022On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the 1st resistance at 1.29529 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.28039 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may reverse off the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 1.30112 where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
USD/CAD Outlook (4 July 2022)Approach the USDCAD with flexibility... The USDCAD has been reacting to the 1.29 level with volatility. Through Friday's trading session, the USDCAD broke above 1.29 due to strength in the DXY. Current trading lower from the resistance of 1.29, I am anticipating further upside on the USDCAD with recent weaker than expected economic data releases for the CAD Price could retest the 1.28 support before rebounding up, or, a downward move could be stalled to break higher from 1.29.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
USDCAD H4 Potential Drop | 1st July 2022On the H4, with price recent break of the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the 1st resistance at 1.29124 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.28224 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may reverse off the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 1.30077 where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCAD H4 Potential drop | 30th June 2022On the H4, with price recent break of the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the 1st resistance at 1.29124 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.28224 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may reverse off the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 1.30077 where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
USDCAD H4 Potential drop | 30th June 2022On the H4, with price recent break of the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the 1st resistance at 1.29124 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.28224 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may reverse off the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 1.30077 where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCAD Potential for bullish rise | 29th June 2022On the H4, with price bouncing off the stochastic support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our buy entry at 1.28647 where the horizontal pullback support is to our take profit at 1.30128 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 1.27189 where the horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
USDCAD Potential for bullish rise | 29th June 2022On the H4, with price bouncing off the stochastic support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our buy entry at 1.28647 where the horizontal pullback support is to our take profit at 1.30128 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 1.27189 where the horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
USDCAD, Potential Bullish RiseOn the H4, with price expected to bounce off ichimoku support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our buy entry at 1.28620 where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 1.30205 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for stop loss at 1.27177 where the horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
USDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 27th June 2022On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the stochastics indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 1.28647 where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st resistance at 1.30128 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for 2nd support where the horizontal pullback support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
Outlook on USDCAD: Bearish play seenOn the monthly and weekly time frame, prices tested and reversed off a key resistance zone at 1.3080 with bearish order flow seen on the H4 time frame, as price broke the recent market low at 1.2920. On the H4 time frame, a pullback to the resistance zone at 1.300, in line with the graphical resistance level, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support target at 1.2750. This demand zone lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension levels. Stochastics is also facing resistance at 97.81 with bearish divergence seen which supports our bearish bias.
Short
by shermzT
USDCAD DOWNTREND FORMATIONThe USD/CAD currency pair had broken the support of the Triangle chart pattern on the 4H graph, indicating a bearish movement for the instrument. That movement is also confirmed by the MACD and the RSI indicators. If the movement continues, the pair will probably test its levels of 1.2773 On the other hand, if the price reverses, it might test its previous levels of 1.30005 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Short
by legacyFXofficial
1
USDCAD UNDER PRESSUREAs we can see in the dollar-Canadian pair, there is a head and shoulders formed on the 4-hour frame, the neck was broken, but the price has not returned to test it. It is better to look for a retest and then enter selling for this pair. Next Thursday, we have important news on the Canadian dollar, which is the GDP. Let's see what this week has in store for us. . . Important rules: 1: Use a small lot 2: Don't be greedy 3: Stick to the goals 4: Don't add deals to losing trades 5: Stick to your stop loss Good Luck To Everyone .
Short
by zaidhatem
2