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Usd-cad

USDCAD potential for drop! | 21st June 2022On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will rise from our 1st resistance where the 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support at 1.28598 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci projection is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
3
USDCAD moving higher 🦐USDCAD on the daily chart is trading below a weekly resistance. After the FED decision to increase the interest rates we can see some more bullish development and a test of the 1.33 area can be expected. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and check for a possible break above the structure. IN that case, i will search for a nice entry point according to the Plancton's strategy rules. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Long
by InkyGrip
USDCAD H4 Potential drop | 15th June 2022On the H4, with expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1.27639 in line with the horizontal pullback support from our 1st resistance at 1.29710 where the pullback resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for our 2nd resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1
USDCAD H4 Potential drop | 15th June 2022On the H4, with expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1.27639 in line with the horizontal pullback support from our 1st resistance at 1.29710 where the pullback resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for our 2nd resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCAD Potential bearish drop | 14th June 2022On the H4, with expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1.27639 in line with the horizontal pullback support from our 1st resistance at 1.29019 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for our 2nd resistance in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCAD H4 Potential drop | 13th June 2022With price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support where the pullback support is. Alternatively, price may break and head to our 2nd resistance at 1.29710 where the horizontal pullback resistance is at. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCAD, H4 Potential bullish continuationOn the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our take profit at 1.28883 where the swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci projection , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection are from our buy entry at 1.27639 where the pullback support is. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head to our stop loss at 1.27196 where the overlap support is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
2
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In May the Fed delivered on hawkish expectations by hiking the Fed Funds Rate by 50bsp and also confirmed that the committee expects further 50bsp hikes to be appropriate. The fed also stuck to a familiar hawkish tone by downplaying the prospects of an imminent recession by explaining that even though the economy contracted in Q1, that household spending and business investment remained strong. The Chair also stuck to their guns regarding the rate path by suggesting that they think reaching neutral (currently estimated at 2.4%) before year-end would be appropriate and will assess the need for further hikes when they get there. There were however some less hawkish elements which saw a very classic ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction in major asset classes. The first one was on the Quantitative Tightening front where the bank decided on a phased approach for balance sheet reduction by starting the monthly caps at 30bn (treasuries) and 17.5bn ( MBS ) and pushing it up to the expected $60bn (treasuries) and $35bn ( MBS ) over a three-month timeframe. The second less hawkish element was comments from Chair Powell who took 75bsp hikes off the table saying the committee was not actively considering rate moves of that size. Interestingly, it seems STIR markets did not really believe the Fed as the probability of a 75bsp hike stood at >70% directly following the presser. All-in-all, the meeting provided a short-term ‘sell-the-fact’ opportunity, but also cemented the view that despite signs of a slowing economy and despite clear stress in financial markets, the Fed is sticking to their aggressive tightening for now. 2. Global & Domestic Economy The USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Expectations of a cyclical slowdown have been USD positive. However, we think a lot of the growth concerns might be reflected in recent USD appreciation already. Furthermore, the USD has not been responding positively to bad data like we’ve seen from the start of the year. More recently we’ve seen the USD depreciate on bad data which could suggest that the USD’s driver has temporarily shifted away from the growth focus and shifted towards a Fed focus as the worse the incoming data becomes the higher the likelihood of a less aggressive Fed in the months ahead. Incoming data will be watched closely in relation to the infamous ‘Fed Put’. If growth data slows but not enough to stop the Fed’s hawkish path it’s USD positive, but if the data cause a Fed pivot that’ll be a big negative for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis An overall bearish positioning change across major participant categories last week. Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That means we don’t want to chase the USD higher from here in the short-term. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In June the BoC delivered on market expectations by hiking rates by 50bps to 1.75% and kept its QT process intact. The statement-only decision was interpreted as more hawkish than expected with the bank saying it was ‘prepared to act more forcefully if needed’ to meet its inflation target. This saw markets implying either a few more additional 50bsp hikes or potentially opening the door to 75bsp hikes. The bank also delivered a hawkish tone regarding price pressures, noting that risks of elevated inflation becoming entrenched had risen and price pressures was persisting well above target. The biggest surprise was the lack of any real concern regarding growth. Instead, the bank was very optimistic about activity by noting it was strong and still operating above trend. The lack of concern about the clear slowdown in growth in their biggest trading partner, and the lack of concerns about debt levels and the housing market was a big surprise for us. Instead of sounding concerned about falling house prices and its possible effect on the economy, they welcomed the drop as a sign that their normalisation process is taking effect. To summarize, the bank remained much more hawkish than we anticipated and means our neutral bias for the CAD is taking a bit of a beating as CAD continues to trade at 9-year highs at the index level. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand , global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility . We remain cautious oil , but geopolitics are a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Positioning was more mixed last week for the CAD, but we continue to think that markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. As always though, timing those shorts will be very important.
by thunderpips
4
USDCAD Buy opportunity and counter trade if invalidatedThe USDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since last September (2021). So far it has had three clear Higher Highs and two Higher Lows. Right now the price is very close to that Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the pattern and when the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, it will be a confirmed buy. The last symmetrical position for the pair was in Jan 13 - 20 2022, where the price rebounded without making a solid Higher Low. That rise reached higher than the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, so using that model, we are setting a medium-term target of 1.28625 on this pair. On the other hand, be prepared to cut losses quickly if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Down, and sell instead towards the -0.618 Fib extension (1.21750). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
6
USD/CAD -07/06/2022-• Pair is bullish as long as it is above the weekly ascending trend line labeled in orange • Next target upside is at 1.2950 where price got rejected several times • Will bulls get a successful breakout this time ? • 2 scenario are presented in the chart above • 1st scenario: bulls successfully break the 1.2950 level and continue pushing prices higher • 2nd scenario: bulls fail again and prices start to fall after hitting 1.2950 • Bullish pattern on weekly chart: ascending triangle, which favors a bullish breakout past 1.2950 in the weeks ahead
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
USDCAD potential for drop! | 3rd June 2022On the H4, with price moving below our ichimoku cloud and the recent break of our horizontal support level which is in line with the 28.6% fibonacci retracement level, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1.24690 in line with the horizontal swing low support and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from our 1st resistance at 1.25775. Alternatively, price may break structure and head for our 2nd resistance at 1.26841. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet