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Usd-jpy-buy

Is this the USD/JPY spring point? Looking at the Dollar vs. Yen on the higher timeframe going into this week looks like it could be in a perfect spot to catch some volume and ride a trend. When looking at multiple variables of the pair you can see reasons why I believe this may be time for the Dollar to fan its wings a little bit. Healthy trend is obvious to myself and my trading style, and to get into long positions I would be looking to attempt to fulfil a pullback that correlates with the previous two pull backs. If my prediction is right on this idea then we should pull right back into that recent bullish reaction and move to the upside. You can see the Fibonacci level drawn on the pair, and then the actual Dollar index and what I notice is a retracement backdown to the .50 mark until bullish momentum picked back up. The overlay printed is tracking higher value FRAMA areas and I have coded it to quit printing the overlay when the lines are crossing or overlapping to indicate an indecisive market and to keep out of "trend trades" in those conditions and focus more on a range strategy if I really must, and I see a trend trade opportunity rather than a retracement down to the range bottom. Even with heavy news last week, the Dollar stayed pretty strong in my own eye due to the fact some important numbers missed, and the impact was quickly recovered. I see this as high bullish impact, and we are in a big retail zone on a higher time frame bringing me to a bias being trapping traders in short positions slowly beginning of the week until the volume control is gained back and will go to take highs and create new ones. The Yen has been taking a beating and the bullish activity cant seem to hold when it does inject. I see a range if anything next week on the Yen index but if my analysis is correct we should see a lower high and a lower low created.
Long
by mbfxtrading
USD/JPY sticks to BoJ-inspired strong gainsSTRATEGY LONG The Japanese yen depreciated past 134.5 per dollar, sliding back toward its weakest levels in seven weeks as the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy and made no adjustments to its yield curve control. However, the BOJ said it will remove forward guidance that pledges to keep interest rates at current or low levels. Latest data showed that core consumer prices in Japan’s capital, Tokyo, accelerated and exceeded forecasts in April, keeping the pressure on the central bank to adjust its current monetary settings. Externally, firm expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in May continued to weigh on the yen, though recession fears and renewed concerns about the banking sector in the US limited the currency’s decline. The USD/JPY pair builds on its strong intraday rally and climbs to its highest level since March 10, around the 136.40 region during the early North American session. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips following the release of the US macro data and trade around the 136.00 mark, still up over 1.5% for the day. This, along with a sharp intraday decline in the US Treasury bond yields, keeps a lid on any further gains for the Greenback. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse - as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets - lends some support to the safe-haven JPY and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair amid slightly overbought oscillators on hourly charts. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong gains for the third successive week, also marking the fifth week of a positive move in the previous six. BULLISH FACTS When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative Stagflation to take USD even higher Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety US at war means a stronger dollar Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid There is no alternative to the US dollar No recession for America's labor market, more dollar gains eyed Fed Chair Powell prioritizes fighting inflation, and ready to see negative growth BEARISH FACTS US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged America on verge of losing petrodollar privilege Other regions may need to continue their crusade for inflation, reducing spreads of debt securities yields Combination of lower Fed rate expectations and improved risk sentiment is quintessentially negative No more Fed hikes, potentially lethal to the US Dollar US economy to slip into recession, Fed eventually cut rates quicker than peer institutions Sticky inflation? What is sticky is the downtrend Fed will start cutting interest rates quicker than foreign central banks Backing the US disinflation process and lower US rates Shock growth shows worker supply is rising, inflation to fall, USD to retreat End to monetary tightening should bring the USD's gains to an end Incremental news outside of the US growing more positive Fed to end its tightening cycle and US economic trend to worsen
Long
by DaveBrascoFX