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Usd-jpy

USDJPY | SELL NOW AND BUY LATER? (maybe)Hey Everyone! I believe USDJPY can have both scenarios for the following reasons: SELL setup: - USDJPY has been very bullish recently and needs a strong rejection. - Even with NFP news outcome being positive the USD is currently falling slightly. - There is a good bearish channel and stoploss is covering our 100-200 moving averages. Buy setup: - After the likely rejection I believe a strong pullback to the psychological level 137.00 could trigger huge bullish pressure. - That's where the 200 moving average is sitting on the daily and the 4h is nearby which usually trigger a reaction in the market. - Overall market direction is also very bullish in favour for USD. My personal opinion: I would not sell, I would wait for that pullback and stay patient, but for those who love a little risk, could be a good trade-down. If moving averages do manage to break to the upside, this trade becomes invalid.
by FX-TradingLions
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISUSD/JPY has reversed from a high near 141, largely on the back of shrinking expectations that the Fed would hike in June. That is now priced with a 25% probability rather than a 70% probability attached to it last month. We have noted that the current environment should continue to see interest in carry trade strategies – where the Japanese yen scores poorly. However, USD/JPY looks overvalued relative to the terms of trade story – which is much better for the yen than a year ago. In addition, there is still the risk that the Bank of Japan surprises on 16 June by further normalising its Yield Curve Control policy. That would be a yen positive. And thus it would not be a surprise to see speculator investors trying to re-position short USD/JPY above 140 – even if such a strategy has already proved painful this year.
Short
by thunderpips
2
✨NEW: USDJPY ✨ SWING TRADE ✨SLO @ 144.05 ⏳ SSO @ 138.33 ⏳ TP1 @ 134.00 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 125.50 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 119.25 (shaving 25%) TP4 @ 110.75 (shaving 25%) TP5 @ 103.85 (shaving 25%) BSO @ 101.66 ⏳ BLO @ 99.66 ⏳ ADDITIONAL INFO: TP1 @ 134.00, before Pivot Low TP2 @ 125.50, at Mid-Pivot TP3 @ 119.25, at Major Support TP4 @ 110.75, above Upper Demand TP5 @ 103.85, above Lower Demand BSO @ 101.66, after Price Action drops below TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: As of June 1, 2023, the USDJPY is trading around 139.80. The RSI is overbought, which indicates that the market is due for a correction. The MACD is also starting to turn down, which could be another sign that the trend is about to change. ⚠️Be mindful that the moving averages are all sloping upwards, which is a bullish sign. Overall, the technical analysis for the USDJPY is mixed. There are some bullish signs, however the bearish signs seem to be forging ahead. Traders should be cautious and wait for a clear downtrend to emerge before taking any short trades. Here are some of the key levels to watch for: * SUPPORT: 139.45 ⚠️ For a more aggressive approach, you can place a Market Order to Sell once price opens and closes below Support * RESISTANCE: 140.65 ⚠️ For a more aggressive approach, you can place a Market Order to Buy once price opens and closes above Resistance If the price breaks below the support level, it could signal a change in trend to the downside. If the price breaks above the resistance level, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend. Here are some of the factors that could affect the USDJPY in the near future: * The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 15. * The Japanese government's economic data releases. Traders should keep an eye on these factors and adjust their positions accordingly.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
USDJPY - Potential Daily Retracement comingFundamental Analysis The Japanese Yen is doing great lately, thanks to a mix of factors. This makes the USD/JPY pair go down for the third day in a row. The official Chinese PMI numbers for May were not so good, which makes people worry about the global economy and look for safer options. The JPY is one of them, especially because the Japanese authorities might step in to stop it from falling too much. Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for international affairs, Masato Kanda, said they will watch the currency market closely and do what they need to do. He also said they won't rule out any option. On top of that, the US Treasury bond yields are going down too, which makes the US-Japan rate difference smaller and favors the JPY. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not so keen on the JPY rising too much, so that might limit its gains. Another thing that helps the USD/JPY pair stay afloat is the strong US Dollar. The USD Index, which measures the Greenback against other currencies, is near its highest level since mid-March that it reached on Tuesday. It is supported by the expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for longer. The markets think that the US central bank will raise interest rates by another 25 bps at the June FOMC meeting. The US economic data, such as the Chicago PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, will influence the USD demand. Also, pay attention to what the FOMC members say and how the US bond yields change. These factors will affect the USD/JPY pair too. And don't forget to check the overall mood of the market. It can give you some clues about the USD/JPY pair and help you find short-term opportunities. Technical Analysis As per the daily price action we believe USD/JPY, will very likely retrace to last broken high / Trenline zone (grey arrow) before seeing any true bullish move aiming for $144 price zone. That retracement could be deeper (see dotted grey arrow), and even more complex, i.e. through a corrective wave. Right now we are watching the current level for potential retracement, which could be a nice opportunity for a short.
by financialflagship
USDJPY Upside PotentialHey Traders! 👋 For Day 21/100 of our challenge, we will look at USDJPY upside potential this week. Technicals: - Currently on pivot area (expecting support to form) - But price is still creating LLs-LHs - Better to go long above 139.600 - Target previous high 140.800 Fundamentals: - Market to price in higher probability of rate hikes as positive data continues to support this narrative - BoJ remains with dovish policy and no changes are foreseen in the near-term
Long
by rob_WRLD_
USDJPY correction time; RSI/BBAND/STOCH/HAIKEN ASHIInstructions: 1)The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the asset is temporarily overbought/oversold, suggesting a possible trend reversal. 2) Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the asset is currently in an upper/lower resistance/support zone. 3) The Forex Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) helps identify buy and sell moments based on comparing the current price with the price range over a specific time frame. 4) In addition, I use Heiken Ashi candles, which help to see the trend in a smoother and smoother way. Intervals: H1: 1) RSI near the 70 level and the indicator is falling 2) Price bounced off the Bollinger band 3) Stoch above 80 and the sell line (red) is on top of the buy line (green) 4) Red candle Haiken Ashi Notes: Additional confirmation will be the red Haiken Ashi candle on the H4 interval. Conclusions: Based on the analysis of the RSI, Bollinger Bands, Stoch and the Heiken Ashi candles, it appears that the USDJPY asset may be at a turning point. Stop Lose: Above the top of the Bollinger Band +10/15pips. SL will be set at break even after a 10/15pips gain.
Short
by Manticore_Investments
USD/JPY can ascend further🌟The USDJPY is in a Bullish phase by reaching a PRZ zone 🌟 Bullish signals are: - Bullish Cup & Handle - Dynamic Support zone - Pivot R1 weekly - Ascending Triangle ⭐ Note if the PRZ is broken downwards with the strength of Bearish candles from bottom Of the PRZ zone , this analysis of ours will be failed. ⏮️Previous Analysis⏮️ ✅If this post was useful for you, like it ❤️ and if you think it is useful for your friends, be sure to send it to them. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 🌍Thank you for seeing idea . Have a nice day and Good luck.
Long
by CobraVanguard
10
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US dollar (USD) has staged a comeback against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and Euro (EUR) over the past few weeks, but foreign exchange analysts at MUFG still consider that medium-term depreciation is the most likely outcome. The bank considers that the US Dollar exchange rates are overvalued, especially against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and net capital flows are likely to be less supportive. It also considers that the Euro-Zone and Chinese outlooks are more favourable, especially given that gas prices have declined sharply. MUFG also expects the Fed will cut rates before the ECB while the Bank of Japan will tighten policy. Monetary policy will inevitably be a key aspect. Although the immediate debate is still surrounding the potential for further interest rate hikes, MUFG expects the debate will switch to the potential for a Federal Reserve policy reversal as the US economy deteriorates. According to the bank; “ The Fed will be cutting rates prior to the ECB. Inflation in Europe is stickier due to energy and food prices and the Fed will have much more scope to respond once economic conditions in the US weaken further from here. ” After an extended period of quantitative easing, MUFG also expects that the ECB quantitative tightening programme through bond sales will put upward pressure on longer-term yields and support the Euro. Global Growth Trends Still Favourable MUFG notes that previous forecasts of an extended UK recession have been revised away and the Euro-Zone has also been resilient. As far as China is concerned it adds; “ Recent data has disappointed, in particular on the manufacturing side of the economy, but pent-up domestic demand likely has further to run which will act as a source of global growth this year. ” Although market sentiment has been more cautious, it expects overall growth dynamics will not favour the US dollar as Asia rebounds. A related issue is the key area of energy prices. The jump in energy costs last year was a key reason why agencies such as the IMF and central banks were so negative surrounding the European economic outlook last year. Gas prices have, however, declined sharply with a slump from over 90% from the peak and close to 2-year lows. Gas storage levels are also at very high levels in historic terms ang MUFG expects storage levels will hit 100% in the summer. In this context, lower gas prices will improve the growth outlook and strengthen the trade outlook. The Bank of Japan has resisted tightening monetary policy, but MUFG notes that the economy is strengthening and inflation has increased. According to MUFG; “ we maintain that YCC has passed its sell-by-date and while it remains unclear whether price stability at 2% can be achieved, the BoJ will still move to widen the band or scrap it completely. ” The bank expects that the yen will strengthen sharply if the Bank of Japan lets yields increase which will drag the dollar lower. Negative Long-Term US Debt Dynamics The immediate focus is on the US debt ceiling and political brinkmanship ahead of early June when the US Treasury will run out of cash. These short-term dynamics are mixed for the US dollar with concerns over the economy, but potential defensive support if risk appetite deteriorates. MUFG focusses on the underlying debt dynamics and the potentially unsustainable situation. MUFG notes that the budget deficit in the first seven months of fiscal 2022/23 amounted to $928bn from $360bn the previous year. On a longer-term view, in considers the debt dynamics will be potentially negative for the US currency. De-Dollarization Hype Although MUFG considers that the de-dollarization rhetoric is rather more hype than substance, there is still the risk that long-term confidence in the dollar will decline with scope for some further increase in Euro and yuan central bank reserve holdings. MUFG also notes that there has been strong central bank gold buying and it expects this trend will continue. The bank also sees a risk that the US use of financial sanctions will discourage official players to hold reserves in the dollar due to fears over asset freezes. MUFG notes that there has been an extended period of Wall Street out-performance, but expects this trend will reverse and net capital flows will be less supportive for the US currency. It adds; “ We see a renewed drop in US equities as investors position more assertively for US recession. ” Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has posted a 32-year high and the German DAX index has hit a record high. It also sees scope for a sustained rebound in emerging-market equities after an extended period of under-performance. It adds; “ A reversal of the current period of deep EM undervaluation poses downside risks for the USD in the medium-term. ” Long-Term Peak, Dollar Overvalued MUFG notes that the dollar last year reached the highest level for over 20 years. It also notes that at the October peak the currency index was 2 standard deviations stronger than the average over the past 40 years. It adds; “ Similar extreme levels of USD overvaluation were last recorded in the early 2000’s and mid-1980’s and subsequently proved to be long-term bearish turning points for the USD. ” The bank also considers that the dollar is substantially overvalued, especially against the yen, increasing the likelihood of mean reversion.
Short
by thunderpips
USDJPY Next move!(bearish)Hello Traders In bigger picture(TF daily) the price is making an ABC correction. In smaller TF Wave B is completing and trend still bullish in 4hr TF. RSI has been reached in overbought zone so we should expect a small correction. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Short
by FortunaInvestments
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISForeign exchange analysts at Goldman Sachs still expect that the US Dollar to lose ground over 2023 as a whole, but expect this will take longer than expected previously due to US and global developments. It notes; “Our underlying view for FX markets this year is that we are likely to see only a “bumpy deceleration” for the Dollar, because slack in the US economy is still limited, and we are still “waiting for a challenger.” The 3-month Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate has been revised higher to 140 from 132 previously while the 6-month forecast has been revised to 135 from 125. The 12-month forecast remains at 125.0. From a longer-term perspective, Goldman still expects that the dollar will lose ground, but it considers that the short-term perspective has changed slightly. It adds; “we think the recent rally in the broad Dollar more appropriately reflects the fine balance facing currency markets at the moment.” Goldman points out that the US economy has performed more strongly than expected after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March. According to Goldman; “In the US, recent data on credit conditions have been a bit better than feared. And cost pressures have eased somewhat but remain a top priority, so that a number of Fed officials have said they still see some risk that rates may ultimately have to rise further.” Another key element for exchange rates is that dollar selling necessitates the buying of another currency. In this context, Goldman is less confident that there are attractive alternatives. The narrative earlier in the year was of a strong rebound in China and notable resilience in the Euro-Zone. Both these elements have come into doubt over the next few weeks. The Bank of Japan has also not engaged in any shift in monetary policy with the ceiling for the 10-year yield held at 0.5%. The delay in tightening policy has undermined the yen in global markets. Goldman adds; “Dollar depreciation usually coincides with strong activity in the rest of the world, not US underperformance. We think recent developments all support this view, and should also support some further Dollar strength over the near term.” The 3,6 and 12-month Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate forecasts are unchanged at 1.05,1.05 and 1.10 respectively.
Short
by thunderpips
USDJPY broke above a 6-month Resistance level.The USDJPY pair gave us the buy entry we wanted last time (see chart below) almost 2 months ago and we took a successful trade: Right now it is above the 138.210 level, a Resistance that was in effect since December 01 2022. This is a short-term bullish break-out call, so we turn bullish again targeting Resistance Zone 1 at 142.000, which also happens to be the top of the 6-month Channel Up. After this leg is completed, we will short at least as low as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting an internal Higher Lows trend-line at 137.000. On the other hand, if the price breaks below that Higher Lows line first, we will sell the break-out and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 132.000. If selling escalates further and we the pair closes a 1D candle below the Channel Up, we will take a new sell targeting the January 05 2021 Higher Lows trend-line at 126.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US dollar has hit a fresh year to date high overnight against the yen at 138.87 as it continues to extend its advance from the low of 133.75 recorded on 11th May. Over that period the yen has been the worst performing G10 currency alongside the Scandi currencies of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone which have declined by over 2% against the US dollar. The recent move higher in USD/JPY has coincided with the ongoing adjustment higher in US rates. 2-year and 10-year US government bond yields have closed higher for seven consecutive days which is the longest run of higher closing prices since September of last year. It was also a period of yen weakness when USD/JPY was breaking above the 140.00-level for the first time since the middle of 1998. According to the latest CFTC report, leveraged funds have been paring back the size of their short yen positions this month although they still remain close to levels from back in autumn of last year when USD/JPY hit its current cycle high. The BoJ’s ongoing reluctance to tighten monetary policy further in the near-term combined with recent adjustment higher in US rates has triggered renewed upward momentum for USD/JPY. The move higher in US rates was encouraged yesterday by reassuring comments following a meeting between President Biden and House speaker McCarthy on the debt ceiling. After the talks, House speaker McCarthy stated that “the tone was better than any other time we have had discussions”. Both President Biden and House leader McCarthy acknowledged that the talks had been productive although they have not yet reached an agreement. President Biden stated that “we reiterated once again that default is off the table and the only way to move forward is in good faith toward a bipartisan agreement”. House leader McCarthy expects to speak with President Biden on a daily basis until a deal has been reached. The developments support market expectations that a compromise agreement will be reached to raise the debt ceiling before the so-called “X-date”. If those expectations are seriously challenged in the coming weeks then it could trigger a squeeze of short yen positions and a sharp move lower in USD/JPY. At the same time, the move higher in US rates was encouraged yesterday by comments from Fed officials. St Louis Fed President Bullard stated that he is “thinking two more moves this year” to put enough downward pressure on inflation. He is a wellknown hawk and a non-voter on the FOMC this year. The hawkish comments from St Louis Fed President Bullard were partially offset by relatively more cautious comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who stated “we may have to go higher from here, but we may not raise rates quite as aggressively and as quickly as we have over the course of the past year”. He also believes it’s a close call as to whether the Fed raises rates further in June or skips that meeting. We would place more weight on his comments as he is a voter on the FOMC this year. June rate hike expectations have since edged higher again with the US rate market pricing in around 5bps of hikes.
Short
by thunderpips
2
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISDerek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets, EMEA & International Securities at MUFG, suggests that the recent trend seeing a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) may not last, due to the changing dynamics that drove the currency weaker in 2022. "We remain unconvinced that the trend in yen weakness can persist. The dynamics that drove the yen weaker in 2022 are changing and that will mean upside scope will be far less going forward," says Derek Halpenny. He further emphasises the significance of Japan's shifting trade data influenced by falling energy prices. "The turn in the energy markets that has seen the huge negative energy terms of trade shock start to reverse...we saw Japan’s trade deficit continue to shrink helped by falling energy prices," he adds. Japan's Trade Data Halpenny also details the notable decline in Japan's total imports, which fell 2.3% in April, the first drop since January 2021. "A shrinkage in the trade deficit was further helped by a 2.6% increase in exports. Japan’s energy import bill is now falling sharply – the annual change was -17.7% in April which contributed to 5.0ppts of decline in overall imports," says Halpenny. He also addresses the influence of US rate expectations on the yen, implying a potential reversal in the USD/JPY trend when this momentum fades. "Of course this underlying change for the yen will play second fiddle to rate expectations in the US which is the current driver of the move higher in USD/JPY but will add potential impetus the other way when the US rates momentum fades, which it inevitably will do going forward," Halpenny adds.
Short
by thunderpips