Get started

Usd-jpy

Joe G2H Trade@ Buying USDJPYTrade Idea: Buying USDJPY Reasoning: Pullback into newly formed support on the daily. Entry Level: 138.104 Take Profit Level: 139.58 Stop Loss: 137.50 Risk/Reward: 2.4/1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Long
by Signal_Centre
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISYen Undervalued, Yuan to Lose Ground Danske Bank continues to expect that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy this year, although the timing remains very uncertain. While a key argument against the Euro is that the currency is overvalued, it considers that the Japanese currency is substantially undervalued. According to Danske; “Overall, USD/JPY seems fundamentally overvalued and combined with potential monetary policy tightening; we expect the cross to drop below 130 on a 6-12M horizon. If inflationary pressures in Japan continue to persist, it will increasingly build pressure on the ultra-dovish stance that the BoJ has. Danske expects the Chinese yuan will lose ground due to broad dollar gains. A weaker Chinese currency would also act as a barrier to Euro gains.
Short
by thunderpips
Buy Opportunity on USDJPYOur trade relies on fundamental analysis, and technical analysis only serves as our entry point. Currently, the US is undergoing a process of quantitative tightening. Today we have the FOMC meeting, expecting to result in a 25 basis point rate increase. A rate increase of 50 basis points or continued rate hikes would be seen as a hawkish signal. Most likely it will result as expected considering the data history , but we will keep an eye on FOMC Press Conference where we will see a high volatility and the deciding factor on where the prices will go. Meanwhile, Japan is maintaining its monetary easing policy, and the new BOJ governor, Ueda, announced in a recent speech that they plan to slowly continue their yield curve control to support a healthy economy. This has led us to take a long-term dovish stance on the JPY. Shifting our focus to the technical analysis, We are currently awaiting a retracement to the 61% Fibonacci level. However, we should remain vigilant as there is a possibility that the price may break and reject till the 134.1 level. RSI Upward divergence in the lower timeframes.
Long
by keechi
9
USDJPY: Triangle dictating the trendThe USDJPY pair is inside an Ascending Triangle on the 1D timeframe, supported by the 1D MA50 and with the technicals bullish (RSI = 59.741, MACD = 0.520, ADX = 20.018). The price is approaching R1 (138.215) and as long as it remains below it (while also the 1D RSI gets rejected on the 70.000 overbought level) we sell and target the HL of the Triangle (TP = 132.400). Buy above the R1 and target the R2 (TP = 142.200). If we close under the HL of the Triangle, sell and target the S1 (TP = 127.300). Below the S1 target the S2 (TP = 122.000). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
3
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in the first quarter and the return of some Chinese tourists may have meant a further uptick in the services sector, exports and manufacturing likely remained weak on the back of weakness in global demand. If domestic consumption weakens substantially despite the government travel subsidies and high winter bonuses, it could continue to highlight the risk of a recession. April CPI will also be released on Friday which will likely confirm that price pressures remain concerning. Tokyo CPI for April had come in above expectations despite the falling commodity prices and the base effect. Bloomberg consensus expects national CPI for April to come in at 3.5% for the headline from 3.2% previously while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected to rise to 4.2% from 3.8% in March.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in the first quarter and the return of some Chinese tourists may have meant a further uptick in the services sector, exports and manufacturing likely remained weak on the back of weakness in global demand. If domestic consumption weakens substantially despite the government travel subsidies and high winter bonuses, it could continue to highlight the risk of a recession. April CPI will also be released on Friday which will likely confirm that price pressures remain concerning. Tokyo CPI for April had come in above expectations despite the falling commodity prices and the base effect. Bloomberg consensus expects national CPI for April to come in at 3.5% for the headline from 3.2% previously while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected to rise to 4.2% from 3.8% in March.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds to our constructive medium-term outlook for the yen. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by the end of central bank tightening and a transition toward easing, as well as a U.S. recession in the second half of 2023.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds to our constructive medium-term outlook for the yen. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by the end of central bank tightening and a transition toward easing, as well as a U.S. recession in the second half of 2023.
Short
by thunderpips
USDJPY Bearish momentum extension if MA50 (1d) breaksThe USDJPY pair is on a bearish trend after failing to break Resistance (1). There is a Rising Support since the January 16th Low and if broken can lead to a Rectangle creation. Trading Plan: 1. Sell if the price closes a (1d) candle under the MA50 (1d). 2. Sell again if it closes a (1d) candle under the Rising Support. Targets: 1. 132.000 (the Rising Support). 2. 130.000 (Rectangle bottom). Tips: 1. RSI (1d) being under its MA line is an early bearish signal before the MA50 (1d) validates it. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Short
by TradingBrokersView
5
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds to our constructive medium-term outlook for the yen. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by the end of central bank tightening and a transition toward easing, as well as a U.S. recession in the second half of 2023.
Short
by thunderpips
1
USD/JPY Potential Long Setup !Based on technical analysis, the 4-hour timeframe is currently showing a rejection of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the first support level (S1) of the daily pivot points. These factors indicate a potential bullish trend reversal in the near future. However, before initiating a long position, it is important to observe whether the price will close above the daily pivot points. If it does, it would suggest a stronger upward momentum, thereby increasing the probability of a successful trade. Furthermore, the overall trend is currently bullish, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. It is important to note that technical analysis is not a guaranteed predictor of future price movements, and risk management strategies should be implemented to minimize potential losses. In conclusion, based on the rejection of the EMA and S1 daily pivot points in the 4-hour timeframe, combined with a bullish overall trend, setting a long position after the price closes above the daily pivot points may present a favorable trading opportunity. However, careful consideration of risk management is imperative.
Long
by Bobby-BCT
USD/JPY sticks to BoJ-inspired strong gainsSTRATEGY LONG The Japanese yen depreciated past 134.5 per dollar, sliding back toward its weakest levels in seven weeks as the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy and made no adjustments to its yield curve control. However, the BOJ said it will remove forward guidance that pledges to keep interest rates at current or low levels. Latest data showed that core consumer prices in Japan’s capital, Tokyo, accelerated and exceeded forecasts in April, keeping the pressure on the central bank to adjust its current monetary settings. Externally, firm expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in May continued to weigh on the yen, though recession fears and renewed concerns about the banking sector in the US limited the currency’s decline. The USD/JPY pair builds on its strong intraday rally and climbs to its highest level since March 10, around the 136.40 region during the early North American session. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips following the release of the US macro data and trade around the 136.00 mark, still up over 1.5% for the day. This, along with a sharp intraday decline in the US Treasury bond yields, keeps a lid on any further gains for the Greenback. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse - as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets - lends some support to the safe-haven JPY and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair amid slightly overbought oscillators on hourly charts. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong gains for the third successive week, also marking the fifth week of a positive move in the previous six. BULLISH FACTS When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative Stagflation to take USD even higher Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety US at war means a stronger dollar Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid There is no alternative to the US dollar No recession for America's labor market, more dollar gains eyed Fed Chair Powell prioritizes fighting inflation, and ready to see negative growth BEARISH FACTS US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged America on verge of losing petrodollar privilege Other regions may need to continue their crusade for inflation, reducing spreads of debt securities yields Combination of lower Fed rate expectations and improved risk sentiment is quintessentially negative No more Fed hikes, potentially lethal to the US Dollar US economy to slip into recession, Fed eventually cut rates quicker than peer institutions Sticky inflation? What is sticky is the downtrend Fed will start cutting interest rates quicker than foreign central banks Backing the US disinflation process and lower US rates Shock growth shows worker supply is rising, inflation to fall, USD to retreat End to monetary tightening should bring the USD's gains to an end Incremental news outside of the US growing more positive Fed to end its tightening cycle and US economic trend to worsen
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
Analyzing 8 Currencies: A Weekly Forex Breakdown & InsightIn my trading strategy, I analyze eight custom currency indexes on the 30-minute time frame to capture short-term market movements. I utilize pivot points, Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and various technical analysis techniques to develop a bullish or bearish bias for each currency. By examining the interactions between these indicators and price action, I can better understand the direction of the market and identify high-probability trading opportunities that align with the prevailing market sentiment. By focusing on the strength and weakness of major currencies and aligning our trades with the overall market mood, we aim to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex. Here's how I use these charts! Custom Currency Indexes: I've created custom indexes for eight major currencies: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, and CAD. These indexes help me monitor the strength and weakness of each currency relative to the others, giving me valuable insights for my forex trades. Market Sentiment: I also pay attention to the overall market sentiment, which is generally considered "risk-on" when AUD, NZD, and CAD are showing strength, and USD, CHF, and JPY are showing weakness. This risk-on mood indicates that traders are more willing to take on risk, favoring higher-yielding currencies like the AUD, NZD, and CAD. Analyzing Currency Pairs: When looking for trading opportunities, I analyze both the relevant currency indexes and the market sentiment. For example, if I'm considering a trade on the AUD/USD pair, I would look at the AUD index and the USD index to gauge the strength and weakness of the currencies. Matching Up with Market Sentiment: If the strength and weakness of the currencies in the pair align with the overall market sentiment (e.g., AUD is strong and USD is weak in a risk-on environment), it may be a good time to take the trade. If the currency strength and weakness do not match up with the market sentiment, it might be better to stay out of the trade. In summary, my forex trading strategy combines custom currency indexes, market sentiment, and analysis of individual currency pairs. By considering these factors together, I aim to identify favorable trading opportunities in line with the prevailing market conditions. __________________________________________ My current bias for each currency on the 30 minute chart. May 7, 2023 USD: The USD is clearly experiencing a downward trend. Recently, there has been a significant refusal to breach a resistance zone, causing it to fall below all of my EMAs. I believe the downward momentum is likely to persist. GBP: Recently, the pound has gained considerable upward momentum and appears to be preparing for a sustained movement in the same direction. EUR: The EUR has lately broken through long-term trends and support levels, indicating a potential continued decline. While I maintain a bearish outlook, I am closely monitoring price movements. I have observed an RSI divergence on the 30-minute chart, which I consider a warning to be wary of additional declines until a substantial pullback occurs. JPY: Recently, the JPY has broken a short-term trend and a head & shoulders pattern. The price is now below all of my EMAs and is moving in accordance with the longer-term downward trend. CHF: The CHF has recently broken a long-term trend and support level. Currently, the price is retesting the previous support as potential resistance. Based on this price behavior, I anticipate further declines. AUD: While the AUD is experiencing an upward trend, it is encountering notable resistance levels that could exert downward pressure. Nevertheless, I will maintain my bullish stance until evidence suggests otherwise. NZD: The NZD has recently displayed strong bullish momentum, and my inclination is towards an upward direction. However, exercise caution as the price action has formed a bullish continuation pattern, but there are indications of decelerating momentum, suggesting a possible pullback in the near future. CAD: The CAD has experienced a substantial upward surge lately. Although I am currently bullish, the price appears somewhat extended and is approaching a recent high, which could lead to some selling pressure.
by natron
2
Potential bullish breakout in play on USD/JPYTokyo has just opened and we see futures traders shorting the yen with decent volume, which suggests institutions have a bearish bias today on the local currency. This has pushed USD/JPY up to a 4-day high, and keeps a bull-flag breakout in play on the 1-hour chart. The flag projects a target around 135.50, but we're looking for prices to retrace towards the 113.17 high for a potential long to increase the reward to risk ratio. Note that the sideways oscillation formed a triple bottom around 134.63, before a higher low formed around 135 / 200-bar EMA to show an increase in bullish activity - which favours an upside break from its sideways range.
Long
by CityIndex
USDJPY to find support at trend line?USDJPY - 24h expiry Trend line support is located at 134.00. The trend of higher lows is located at 129.80. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. The Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 135.00 will confirm the bullish momentum. We look to Buy at 134.05 (stop at 133.55) Our profit targets will be 135.25 and 135.50 Resistance: 135.00 / 135.50 / 135.75 Support: 134.50 / 134.00 / 133.50 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA