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Usd-jpy

USDJPY broke above a 6-month Resistance level.The USDJPY pair gave us the buy entry we wanted last time (see chart below) almost 2 months ago and we took a successful trade: Right now it is above the 138.210 level, a Resistance that was in effect since December 01 2022. This is a short-term bullish break-out call, so we turn bullish again targeting Resistance Zone 1 at 142.000, which also happens to be the top of the 6-month Channel Up. After this leg is completed, we will short at least as low as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting an internal Higher Lows trend-line at 137.000. On the other hand, if the price breaks below that Higher Lows line first, we will sell the break-out and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 132.000. If selling escalates further and we the pair closes a 1D candle below the Channel Up, we will take a new sell targeting the January 05 2021 Higher Lows trend-line at 126.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US dollar has hit a fresh year to date high overnight against the yen at 138.87 as it continues to extend its advance from the low of 133.75 recorded on 11th May. Over that period the yen has been the worst performing G10 currency alongside the Scandi currencies of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone which have declined by over 2% against the US dollar. The recent move higher in USD/JPY has coincided with the ongoing adjustment higher in US rates. 2-year and 10-year US government bond yields have closed higher for seven consecutive days which is the longest run of higher closing prices since September of last year. It was also a period of yen weakness when USD/JPY was breaking above the 140.00-level for the first time since the middle of 1998. According to the latest CFTC report, leveraged funds have been paring back the size of their short yen positions this month although they still remain close to levels from back in autumn of last year when USD/JPY hit its current cycle high. The BoJ’s ongoing reluctance to tighten monetary policy further in the near-term combined with recent adjustment higher in US rates has triggered renewed upward momentum for USD/JPY. The move higher in US rates was encouraged yesterday by reassuring comments following a meeting between President Biden and House speaker McCarthy on the debt ceiling. After the talks, House speaker McCarthy stated that “the tone was better than any other time we have had discussions”. Both President Biden and House leader McCarthy acknowledged that the talks had been productive although they have not yet reached an agreement. President Biden stated that “we reiterated once again that default is off the table and the only way to move forward is in good faith toward a bipartisan agreement”. House leader McCarthy expects to speak with President Biden on a daily basis until a deal has been reached. The developments support market expectations that a compromise agreement will be reached to raise the debt ceiling before the so-called “X-date”. If those expectations are seriously challenged in the coming weeks then it could trigger a squeeze of short yen positions and a sharp move lower in USD/JPY. At the same time, the move higher in US rates was encouraged yesterday by comments from Fed officials. St Louis Fed President Bullard stated that he is “thinking two more moves this year” to put enough downward pressure on inflation. He is a wellknown hawk and a non-voter on the FOMC this year. The hawkish comments from St Louis Fed President Bullard were partially offset by relatively more cautious comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari who stated “we may have to go higher from here, but we may not raise rates quite as aggressively and as quickly as we have over the course of the past year”. He also believes it’s a close call as to whether the Fed raises rates further in June or skips that meeting. We would place more weight on his comments as he is a voter on the FOMC this year. June rate hike expectations have since edged higher again with the US rate market pricing in around 5bps of hikes.
Short
by thunderpips
2
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISDerek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets, EMEA & International Securities at MUFG, suggests that the recent trend seeing a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) may not last, due to the changing dynamics that drove the currency weaker in 2022. "We remain unconvinced that the trend in yen weakness can persist. The dynamics that drove the yen weaker in 2022 are changing and that will mean upside scope will be far less going forward," says Derek Halpenny. He further emphasises the significance of Japan's shifting trade data influenced by falling energy prices. "The turn in the energy markets that has seen the huge negative energy terms of trade shock start to reverse...we saw Japan’s trade deficit continue to shrink helped by falling energy prices," he adds. Japan's Trade Data Halpenny also details the notable decline in Japan's total imports, which fell 2.3% in April, the first drop since January 2021. "A shrinkage in the trade deficit was further helped by a 2.6% increase in exports. Japan’s energy import bill is now falling sharply – the annual change was -17.7% in April which contributed to 5.0ppts of decline in overall imports," says Halpenny. He also addresses the influence of US rate expectations on the yen, implying a potential reversal in the USD/JPY trend when this momentum fades. "Of course this underlying change for the yen will play second fiddle to rate expectations in the US which is the current driver of the move higher in USD/JPY but will add potential impetus the other way when the US rates momentum fades, which it inevitably will do going forward," Halpenny adds.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate has rallied on Thursday, amid hopes surrounding the US debt ceiling talks, strong US job data, and upbeat US data releases. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets, EMEA & International Securities at MUFG, suggests that the recent trend seeing a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) may not last, due to the changing dynamics that drove the currency weaker in 2022. "We remain unconvinced that the trend in yen weakness can persist. The dynamics that drove the yen weaker in 2022 are changing and that will mean upside scope will be far less going forward," says Derek Halpenny. He further emphasises the significance of Japan's shifting trade data influenced by falling energy prices. "The turn in the energy markets that has seen the huge negative energy terms of trade shock start to reverse...we saw Japan’s trade deficit continue to shrink helped by falling energy prices," he adds. Japan's Trade Data Halpenny also details the notable decline in Japan's total imports, which fell 2.3% in April, the first drop since January 2021. "A shrinkage in the trade deficit was further helped by a 2.6% increase in exports. Japan’s energy import bill is now falling sharply – the annual change was -17.7% in April which contributed to 5.0ppts of decline in overall imports," says Halpenny. He also addresses the influence of US rate expectations on the yen, implying a potential reversal in the USD/JPY trend when this momentum fades. "Of course this underlying change for the yen will play second fiddle to rate expectations in the US which is the current driver of the move higher in USD/JPY but will add potential impetus the other way when the US rates momentum fades, which it inevitably will do going forward," Halpenny adds.
Short
by thunderpips
2
Joe G2H Trade@ Buying USDJPYTrade Idea: Buying USDJPY Reasoning: Pullback into newly formed support on the daily. Entry Level: 138.104 Take Profit Level: 139.58 Stop Loss: 137.50 Risk/Reward: 2.4/1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Long
by Signal_Centre
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISYen Undervalued, Yuan to Lose Ground Danske Bank continues to expect that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy this year, although the timing remains very uncertain. While a key argument against the Euro is that the currency is overvalued, it considers that the Japanese currency is substantially undervalued. According to Danske; “Overall, USD/JPY seems fundamentally overvalued and combined with potential monetary policy tightening; we expect the cross to drop below 130 on a 6-12M horizon. If inflationary pressures in Japan continue to persist, it will increasingly build pressure on the ultra-dovish stance that the BoJ has. Danske expects the Chinese yuan will lose ground due to broad dollar gains. A weaker Chinese currency would also act as a barrier to Euro gains.
Short
by thunderpips
Buy Opportunity on USDJPYOur trade relies on fundamental analysis, and technical analysis only serves as our entry point. Currently, the US is undergoing a process of quantitative tightening. Today we have the FOMC meeting, expecting to result in a 25 basis point rate increase. A rate increase of 50 basis points or continued rate hikes would be seen as a hawkish signal. Most likely it will result as expected considering the data history , but we will keep an eye on FOMC Press Conference where we will see a high volatility and the deciding factor on where the prices will go. Meanwhile, Japan is maintaining its monetary easing policy, and the new BOJ governor, Ueda, announced in a recent speech that they plan to slowly continue their yield curve control to support a healthy economy. This has led us to take a long-term dovish stance on the JPY. Shifting our focus to the technical analysis, We are currently awaiting a retracement to the 61% Fibonacci level. However, we should remain vigilant as there is a possibility that the price may break and reject till the 134.1 level. RSI Upward divergence in the lower timeframes.
Long
by keechi
9
USDJPY: Triangle dictating the trendThe USDJPY pair is inside an Ascending Triangle on the 1D timeframe, supported by the 1D MA50 and with the technicals bullish (RSI = 59.741, MACD = 0.520, ADX = 20.018). The price is approaching R1 (138.215) and as long as it remains below it (while also the 1D RSI gets rejected on the 70.000 overbought level) we sell and target the HL of the Triangle (TP = 132.400). Buy above the R1 and target the R2 (TP = 142.200). If we close under the HL of the Triangle, sell and target the S1 (TP = 127.300). Below the S1 target the S2 (TP = 122.000). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
3
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in the first quarter and the return of some Chinese tourists may have meant a further uptick in the services sector, exports and manufacturing likely remained weak on the back of weakness in global demand. If domestic consumption weakens substantially despite the government travel subsidies and high winter bonuses, it could continue to highlight the risk of a recession. April CPI will also be released on Friday which will likely confirm that price pressures remain concerning. Tokyo CPI for April had come in above expectations despite the falling commodity prices and the base effect. Bloomberg consensus expects national CPI for April to come in at 3.5% for the headline from 3.2% previously while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected to rise to 4.2% from 3.8% in March.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in the first quarter and the return of some Chinese tourists may have meant a further uptick in the services sector, exports and manufacturing likely remained weak on the back of weakness in global demand. If domestic consumption weakens substantially despite the government travel subsidies and high winter bonuses, it could continue to highlight the risk of a recession. April CPI will also be released on Friday which will likely confirm that price pressures remain concerning. Tokyo CPI for April had come in above expectations despite the falling commodity prices and the base effect. Bloomberg consensus expects national CPI for April to come in at 3.5% for the headline from 3.2% previously while the core-core measure (ex-fresh food and energy) is expected to rise to 4.2% from 3.8% in March.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds to our constructive medium-term outlook for the yen. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by the end of central bank tightening and a transition toward easing, as well as a U.S. recession in the second half of 2023.
Short
by thunderpips
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds to our constructive medium-term outlook for the yen. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by the end of central bank tightening and a transition toward easing, as well as a U.S. recession in the second half of 2023.
Short
by thunderpips
USDJPY Bearish momentum extension if MA50 (1d) breaksThe USDJPY pair is on a bearish trend after failing to break Resistance (1). There is a Rising Support since the January 16th Low and if broken can lead to a Rectangle creation. Trading Plan: 1. Sell if the price closes a (1d) candle under the MA50 (1d). 2. Sell again if it closes a (1d) candle under the Rising Support. Targets: 1. 132.000 (the Rising Support). 2. 130.000 (Rectangle bottom). Tips: 1. RSI (1d) being under its MA line is an early bearish signal before the MA50 (1d) validates it. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Short
by TradingBrokersView
5