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Usd-jpy

USD/JPY Potential Long Setup !Based on technical analysis, the 4-hour timeframe is currently showing a rejection of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the first support level (S1) of the daily pivot points. These factors indicate a potential bullish trend reversal in the near future. However, before initiating a long position, it is important to observe whether the price will close above the daily pivot points. If it does, it would suggest a stronger upward momentum, thereby increasing the probability of a successful trade. Furthermore, the overall trend is currently bullish, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. It is important to note that technical analysis is not a guaranteed predictor of future price movements, and risk management strategies should be implemented to minimize potential losses. In conclusion, based on the rejection of the EMA and S1 daily pivot points in the 4-hour timeframe, combined with a bullish overall trend, setting a long position after the price closes above the daily pivot points may present a favorable trading opportunity. However, careful consideration of risk management is imperative.
Long
by Bobby-BCT
USD/JPY sticks to BoJ-inspired strong gainsSTRATEGY LONG The Japanese yen depreciated past 134.5 per dollar, sliding back toward its weakest levels in seven weeks as the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy and made no adjustments to its yield curve control. However, the BOJ said it will remove forward guidance that pledges to keep interest rates at current or low levels. Latest data showed that core consumer prices in Japan’s capital, Tokyo, accelerated and exceeded forecasts in April, keeping the pressure on the central bank to adjust its current monetary settings. Externally, firm expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in May continued to weigh on the yen, though recession fears and renewed concerns about the banking sector in the US limited the currency’s decline. The USD/JPY pair builds on its strong intraday rally and climbs to its highest level since March 10, around the 136.40 region during the early North American session. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips following the release of the US macro data and trade around the 136.00 mark, still up over 1.5% for the day. This, along with a sharp intraday decline in the US Treasury bond yields, keeps a lid on any further gains for the Greenback. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse - as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets - lends some support to the safe-haven JPY and acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair amid slightly overbought oscillators on hourly charts. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong gains for the third successive week, also marking the fifth week of a positive move in the previous six. BULLISH FACTS When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative Stagflation to take USD even higher Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety US at war means a stronger dollar Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid There is no alternative to the US dollar No recession for America's labor market, more dollar gains eyed Fed Chair Powell prioritizes fighting inflation, and ready to see negative growth BEARISH FACTS US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged America on verge of losing petrodollar privilege Other regions may need to continue their crusade for inflation, reducing spreads of debt securities yields Combination of lower Fed rate expectations and improved risk sentiment is quintessentially negative No more Fed hikes, potentially lethal to the US Dollar US economy to slip into recession, Fed eventually cut rates quicker than peer institutions Sticky inflation? What is sticky is the downtrend Fed will start cutting interest rates quicker than foreign central banks Backing the US disinflation process and lower US rates Shock growth shows worker supply is rising, inflation to fall, USD to retreat End to monetary tightening should bring the USD's gains to an end Incremental news outside of the US growing more positive Fed to end its tightening cycle and US economic trend to worsen
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
Analyzing 8 Currencies: A Weekly Forex Breakdown & InsightIn my trading strategy, I analyze eight custom currency indexes on the 30-minute time frame to capture short-term market movements. I utilize pivot points, Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and various technical analysis techniques to develop a bullish or bearish bias for each currency. By examining the interactions between these indicators and price action, I can better understand the direction of the market and identify high-probability trading opportunities that align with the prevailing market sentiment. By focusing on the strength and weakness of major currencies and aligning our trades with the overall market mood, we aim to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of forex. Here's how I use these charts! Custom Currency Indexes: I've created custom indexes for eight major currencies: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, and CAD. These indexes help me monitor the strength and weakness of each currency relative to the others, giving me valuable insights for my forex trades. Market Sentiment: I also pay attention to the overall market sentiment, which is generally considered "risk-on" when AUD, NZD, and CAD are showing strength, and USD, CHF, and JPY are showing weakness. This risk-on mood indicates that traders are more willing to take on risk, favoring higher-yielding currencies like the AUD, NZD, and CAD. Analyzing Currency Pairs: When looking for trading opportunities, I analyze both the relevant currency indexes and the market sentiment. For example, if I'm considering a trade on the AUD/USD pair, I would look at the AUD index and the USD index to gauge the strength and weakness of the currencies. Matching Up with Market Sentiment: If the strength and weakness of the currencies in the pair align with the overall market sentiment (e.g., AUD is strong and USD is weak in a risk-on environment), it may be a good time to take the trade. If the currency strength and weakness do not match up with the market sentiment, it might be better to stay out of the trade. In summary, my forex trading strategy combines custom currency indexes, market sentiment, and analysis of individual currency pairs. By considering these factors together, I aim to identify favorable trading opportunities in line with the prevailing market conditions. __________________________________________ My current bias for each currency on the 30 minute chart. May 7, 2023 USD: The USD is clearly experiencing a downward trend. Recently, there has been a significant refusal to breach a resistance zone, causing it to fall below all of my EMAs. I believe the downward momentum is likely to persist. GBP: Recently, the pound has gained considerable upward momentum and appears to be preparing for a sustained movement in the same direction. EUR: The EUR has lately broken through long-term trends and support levels, indicating a potential continued decline. While I maintain a bearish outlook, I am closely monitoring price movements. I have observed an RSI divergence on the 30-minute chart, which I consider a warning to be wary of additional declines until a substantial pullback occurs. JPY: Recently, the JPY has broken a short-term trend and a head & shoulders pattern. The price is now below all of my EMAs and is moving in accordance with the longer-term downward trend. CHF: The CHF has recently broken a long-term trend and support level. Currently, the price is retesting the previous support as potential resistance. Based on this price behavior, I anticipate further declines. AUD: While the AUD is experiencing an upward trend, it is encountering notable resistance levels that could exert downward pressure. Nevertheless, I will maintain my bullish stance until evidence suggests otherwise. NZD: The NZD has recently displayed strong bullish momentum, and my inclination is towards an upward direction. However, exercise caution as the price action has formed a bullish continuation pattern, but there are indications of decelerating momentum, suggesting a possible pullback in the near future. CAD: The CAD has experienced a substantial upward surge lately. Although I am currently bullish, the price appears somewhat extended and is approaching a recent high, which could lead to some selling pressure.
by natron
2
Potential bullish breakout in play on USD/JPYTokyo has just opened and we see futures traders shorting the yen with decent volume, which suggests institutions have a bearish bias today on the local currency. This has pushed USD/JPY up to a 4-day high, and keeps a bull-flag breakout in play on the 1-hour chart. The flag projects a target around 135.50, but we're looking for prices to retrace towards the 113.17 high for a potential long to increase the reward to risk ratio. Note that the sideways oscillation formed a triple bottom around 134.63, before a higher low formed around 135 / 200-bar EMA to show an increase in bullish activity - which favours an upside break from its sideways range.
Long
by CityIndex
USDJPY to find support at trend line?USDJPY - 24h expiry Trend line support is located at 134.00. The trend of higher lows is located at 129.80. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. The Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 135.00 will confirm the bullish momentum. We look to Buy at 134.05 (stop at 133.55) Our profit targets will be 135.25 and 135.50 Resistance: 135.00 / 135.50 / 135.75 Support: 134.50 / 134.00 / 133.50 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds to our constructive medium-term outlook for the yen. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by the end of central bank tightening and a transition toward easing, as well as a U.S. recession in the second half of 2023.
Short
by thunderpips
USDJPY turned around from its high levelUSD/JPY first tried to fall back yesterday after the U.S. economic data was released. The data suppressed the US dollar, while some safe-haven funds entered the Japanese yen. The USDJPY turned around from its high level on March 8 and closed down for the first time in four days. It continued to fall in the Asia trading session. Potential, pay attention to the current consolidation near the 136 mark. During the day, it will focus on the Fed’s decision to see the hike rate journey. Suppose Fed’s hike rate continuously, the USDJPY would return to the 137 level and try to test the 138 mark. Technically, the USDJPY breaks the 135.03 support and may test 134.20 support.
by ATFX_Global
Looking to buy USDJPYOur trade relies on fundamental analysis, and technical analysis only serves as our entry point. Currently, the US is undergoing a process of quantitative tightening. The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate increase. A rate increase of 50 basis points or continued rate hikes would be seen as a hawkish signal. Meanwhile, Japan is maintaining its monetary easing policy, and the new BOJ governor, Ueda, announced in a recent speech that they plan to slowly continue their yield curve control to support a healthy economy. This has led us to take a long-term dovish stance on the JPY. Shifting our focus to the technical analysis, We are currently awaiting a retracement to the 61% Fibonacci level. However, we should remain vigilant as there is a possibility that the price may reject the 134.78 level. We are also waiting to retest the trend line and the demand zone.
Long
by keechi
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSThe dollar is expected to fall and the yen rise. Risk aversion prevailed in March on credit concerns about US regional banks and a major European bank, with the dollar/yen pair trading with a heavy topside to drop below 130 yen. Excessive concerns about the US financial system then eased on news that some regional banks would be bought out, so the dollar was bought again. However, the pair’s rally was quite muted compared to its rally towards 135 yen after the release of the US February consumer price index (CPI) data. With President Biden also saying the banking crisis was still not over, it seems this rally was merely due to a slight withdrawal of ‘excessive concerns,’ with investors still worried that tougher banking regulations might act as a new risk-off factor. Furthermore, though FRB chair Jerome Powell has said he envisages one more rate hike this year, the markets are split evenly when it comes to pricing in another hike, so it seems there are concerns about the negative impact of tightening on the financial environment. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also be meeting to set policy for the first time under its new structure at the end of April. Most observers believe the BOJ will stick to the status quo for now, but it is also possible the BOJ might announce a policy shift. Investors are starting to focus on FRB rate hikes, so if a BOJ policy shift does seem more likely, market participants will then focus on a future shrinkage of Japanese/US interest-rate differentials. Based on the above, it seems the dollar/yen pair will be susceptible to more downward pressure in April. However, the US also released some firm economic indicators in March. Inflationary pressures also remain high, as evinced by a comment by a FRB official that “inflation is still too high.” US interest rates rose and the dollar was bought at the start of March on hawkish comments by FRB chair Jerome Powell. Controlling inflation remains the FRB’s number one priority. With Mr. Powell also commenting that “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” some observers believe it is too early to start talking about rate cuts. With concerns about the financial system smoldering away, market participants will be focusing on comments by FRB officials ahead of the May FOMC meeting as they try to gauge the direction of monetary policy.
Short
by thunderpips
A potential bullish uptrend for USD/JPY Currently, I am observing a potential bullish uptrend in the USD/JPY market, indicating that the price of the pair is likely to continue to rise under 61% my Fib level or to breakout for continuous short breakdown to 39mins chart during opening of London session. NOTE : It's important to keep in mind that relying on a single indicator cannot guarantee profitable trades as the market is constantly changing and unpredictable and consider other important factors such as fundamental analysis, market sentiment, and risk management when making trading decisions. Keep safe and Happy Trading 🙏
Long
by HeikenXin