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Usd-jpy

USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSThe dollar is expected to fall and the yen rise in April. Risk aversion prevailed in March on credit concerns about US regional banks and a major European bank, with the dollar/yen pair trading with a heavy topside to drop below 130 yen. Excessive concerns about the US financial system then eased on news that some regional banks would be bought out, so the dollar was bought again. However, the pair’s rally was quite muted compared to its rally towards 135 yen after the release of the US February consumer price index (CPI) data. With President Biden also saying the banking crisis was still not over, it seems this rally was merely due to a slight withdrawal of ‘excessive concerns,’ with investors still worried that tougher banking regulations might act as a new risk-off factor. Furthermore, though FRB chair Jerome Powell has said he envisages one more rate hike this year, the markets are split evenly when it comes to pricing in another hike, so it seems there are concerns about the negative impact of tightening on the financial environment. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also be meeting to set policy for the first time under its new structure at the end of April. Most observers believe the BOJ will stick to the status quo for now, but it is also possible the BOJ might announce a policy shift. The Japanese March CPI data is also set for release on April 21. If this points to stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures, a policy tweak/shift will become a more realistic possibility. Investors are starting to focus on FRB rate hikes, so if a BOJ policy shift does seem more likely, market participants will then focus on a future shrinkage of Japanese/US interest-rate differentials. Based on the above, it seems the dollar/yen pair will be susceptible to more downward pressure in April. However, the US also released some firm economic indicators in March. Inflationary pressures also remain high, as evinced by a comment by a FRB official that “inflation is still too high.” US interest rates rose and the dollar was bought at the start of March on hawkish comments by FRB chair Jerome Powell. Controlling inflation remains the FRB’s number one priority. With Mr. Powell also commenting that “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” some observers believe it is too early to start talking about rate cuts. With concerns about the financial system smoldering away, market participants will be focusing on comments by FRB officials ahead of the May FOMC meeting as they try to gauge the direction of monetary policy.
by thunderpips
4
Spotting a potential buying opportunity in USDJPYThe USDJPY pair has started to form higher highs, indicating a short-term uptrend. This is further supported by the price moving above the 100 and 200 moving averages on the 4-hour timeframe, as well as the 100 moving average on the daily timeframe. Currently, the price has reached the upper edge of the upward channel and has shown reversal candles. We are waiting for the price to re-enter a buy zone that corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend wave since March. Additionally, this buy zone is close to the convergence of the 100 and 200 moving averages on the 4-hour timeframe, the 100 moving average on the daily timeframe (in blue), and near the upward trend line and a local support level. If the price responds positively to these supports, the next target could be 134.9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
by Candlestick_OB
USD/JPY set to extend Friday's rally?A divergent them is in play between the Fed and BOJ which could help it recover some more of last week's losses. BOJ governor Ueda reiterated the central bank's ultra-dovish stance whilst US 1-year consumer inflation expectations spikes 0.8% pct point and the Fed's Waller delivered his latest hawkish remarks (inflation remains too high and we've not done enough to fight it). A bullish engulfing candle formed on Friday, making a potential swing low around its YTD low and monthly S1 pivot point. The OBV (on balance volume) has broken to a new cycle high ahead of price action to suggest bulls have the upper hand. - The bias is for a move to the 134.50 resistance zone, a break above which brings 135 into focus. - If prices pull back, we'd look for evidence of a swing low between 133.20/50 around the weekly and monthly pivot points - This could also incre4ase the potential reward to risk ratio
Long
by CityIndex
USD/JPY breakdown. Expecting Uj to reach 134.500 - 134.600 level before making any sudden movements from price action. Price could make another retest near 133.800 for another buying opportunity. Decisions that were made from the federal revere last week will cause the buyers to keep pushing the dollar (DXY) in long positions. Overall, Uj is slowly breaking the resistance area that it has tested multiple times throughout the beginning of the year along with a strong uptrend-line. Place stops in appropriate areas that are suited to your trading capital.
Long
by GeoRiches
usdjpy could be a good buying opportunity📌 Potential BUY setup for USDJPY 👨‍💻 Technical: A lot of bullish momentum, weekly down, however, all other timeframes are moving up, recent daily break of moving averages suggests a further push to the upside. 🎯 For an ideal entry: There is a good chance that this trade would have a retracement back towards the moving averages before continuing further bullish pressure, so waiting might be an ideal entry at candlestick confirmation, giving you a better risk-reward in the long run.
Long
by FX-TradingLions
USDJPY | SELL SIGNAL!The USDJPY pair has been displaying a bearish sentiment in the recent trading sessions. The price action has been showing a consistent downtrend, with sellers dominating the market and pushing the price lower. This sentiment is further supported by increasing selling volume, indicating that traders are willing to sell at lower prices. Technically, the 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average, suggesting that the short-term trend is bearish and that the longer-term trend is also shifting towards bearishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also below the 50 level, which is considered a bearish sign. Market sentiment has been influenced by several factors, including concerns over the global economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and changes in monetary policy by central banks. These factors are causing investors to shift towards safer assets such as the Japanese Yen, which is negatively affecting the USDJPY pair. Unless there is a significant shift in market sentiment or fundamental factors, such as positive economic data from the US or a hawkish shift in the Fed's monetary policy, we can expect the bearish sentiment to continue. However, traders should keep an eye on potential support levels to determine if the trend will break or if a reversal may occur.
Short
by percifying
1
USDJPY Outlook 13 April 2023The USDJPY trades along the 133 support level and could see further downside as the DXY continues to weaken. However with the continual divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the BoJ, a rebound to the upside is likely to always be on the cards. If the USDJPY breaks strongly below 133 (and more crucially below 132.70) the price could trade down to 132. Looking for a possible test and rebound from the 132 round number support level
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY: Very clear levels to trade.The USDJPY pair is inside an Ascending Triangle on the 1D timeframe, around the 1D MA50 and with the technicals basically neutral (RSI = 56.011, MACD = -0.010, ADX = 22.352). Our trading plan is simple. Sell on the 1D MA200 and target the HL of the Triangle (TO = 132.000). Buy above the R1 and target the R2 (TP = 142.250). If we close under the HL of the Triangle, sell and target the S1 (TP = 127.300). Below the S1 target the S2 (TP = 122.000). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
USDJPY Outlook 11 April 2023With the overnight strength of the DXY, the USDJPY climbed steadily to the upside, as the price approached the 134 round number resistance area. Weakness in the Japanese Yen was also compounded by the statement from the new BoJ Governor Ueda, indicating that large scale monetary easing policy will continue. This was in contrary to the market anticipation that Governor Ueda could trim back on easing. While the USDJPY retraces from the resistance level, look for the price to bounce from either the 23.60% fib level which is also the 133 round number level, or more likely at the 132.60 price level which is the 38.20% fib level and the upward trendline providing support. Further upside on the USDJPY could see the price climb steadily toward the 135 key resistance level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY can break the 133? 🦐USDJPY after the test of the 137.500 area dropped with a series of lower low lower high until the 130 round zone. The market took the liquidity below the daily support and retest the 130.500 and started an impulse to the next resistance area which is the previous lower high. After the rejection by the 133 area the market retraced at the 0.786 Fibonacci zone and moved back to the daily resistance. According to Plancton's strategy IF the price will break above we can set a nice long order.
by InkyGrip
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSJapanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view the currency will likely outperform as tightening cycles eventually come to an end and central banks turn to easing. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by U.S. recession in H2-2023 as well as recent actions by the Fed, which have made U.S. dollar liquidity more readily available. And while the likelihood of a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy shift has perhaps diminished a little, if the global financial sector proves surprisingly resilient, the risk of a further policy adjustment from the BoJ could still reinforce the outlook for yen gains over the medium term as well.
by thunderpips
USDJPY Forming a bear flagHey Traders, USDJPY is forming a bear flag and now seems to be approaching an important weekly zone of 132 if we get a decent rejection i would target more lows. Fundamentally US data continue to print soft and signal no more rate hike from fed as inflation tensions are easing so the market is expecting more of a dovish upcoming monetary policies. JPY is considered also a safe haven along with CHF so i expect both to have a likelihood to outperform USD. Feel free to ask any question in the comment section. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSWhile the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view the currency will likely outperform as tightening cycles eventually come to an end and central banks turn to easing. Yen outperformance over time should also be supported by U.S. recession as well as recent actions by the Fed, which have made U.S. dollar liquidity more readily available. And while the likelihood of a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy shift has perhaps diminished a little, if the global financial sector proves surprisingly resilient, the risk of a further policy adjustment from the BoJ could still reinforce the outlook for yen gains over the medium term as well.
by thunderpips
USDJPY Reached our target. Critical move ahead.The USDJPY pair hit the sell target we set on our February 28 analysis as it got rejected on the 138.210 Resistance and dropped back to the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line: As long as this trend-line holds, it is more likely to see one more rebound first to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for short-term traders and then to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for medium-term traders. A closing (1D candle) below the dashed trend-line, will be a sell break-out signal for us and we will take the small loss on the buy and target instead the January 05 2021 Higher Lows trend-line. Similarly, a closing (1D candle) above the 138.210 Resistance will be a buy break-out signal, targeting Resistance Zone 1. Notice the 1D RSI being on a Higher Lows trend-line of itself. A rebound or break below it respectively enhances the probabilities of buy and sell trades respectively. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
USDJPY Outlook 6th April 2023The USDJPY has been trading steadily to the downside, primarily due to the weakness of the DXY. As the USDJPY found the 130.50 price area (78.6% fib level from the longer term) overnight, price rebound slightly but continued to consolidate at the 131.20 price level, with the resistance level at the 131.70 level (38.2% fib level) and the downward trendline possibly capping significant upside potential. Look for the USDJPY to retest the resistance level before trading lower again, with the key support level at the 129.80 price level.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY | Bearish Predicament Certainly, here's a revised version without adverbs and including the importance of waiting for price action: The USDJPY currency pair is currently trading at 131.200, but there are several indicators suggesting a potential downturn in the near future. The moving average ribbons indicate a bearish trend, which could signal a reversal in trend and a correction to the downside. Additionally, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator show overbought conditions, suggesting a weakening buying pressure and a possible shift towards a bearish sentiment. Furthermore, price analysis indicates that USDJPY may be headed for a decline as it has failed to break above the 132.000 resistance level and has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern, both of which are classic technical signals for a potential reversal. However, it's important to note that one should wait for price action to confirm future price movements and where the market wants to go before considering any trades. Overall, based on the above indicators, there's a possibility of USDJPY declining to 129.740 in the near future, but it's important to wait for price action to confirm the direction of the market before making any trading decisions.
Short
by percifying
2
Selling USDJPY Yesterday we commented that we are not looking for an entry on the EURUSD and are looking at other instruments with clearer movement. One of these instruments is USDJPY. The 133.10-133.20 sell zone was determined by a Fibonacci retracement. A 180-pips decline followed, which we expect to continue. All stops can now be placed above 133.20 or at entry levels if made on the bounce. The target for this move is 128.65 and is again one of the main instruments we will be trading today.
Short
by ForexTrendline
2
USDJPY Breakout and potential retraceHey traders, USDJPY was trading in an uptrend but successfully managed to break it out as the environment of USD continue weakening. Fundamentally there are high expectations on a less restrictive monetary policy from the US as inflation tensions have eased. in a second point JPY is considered a safe haven with current banking sector crisis. Technically we will be watching a potential retrace of the trend around 132.2 support and resistance zone. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
15