Risk Off Dominates as concerns over China’s latest outbreak riseThe risk off tone dominated price action as growing concerns over China’s latest coronavirus outbreak remained in focus, keeping the antipodeans pressured while supporting safe havens.
Alongside the risk off tone, AUD was further pressured by comments from RBA Deputy Governor Bullock, who stated that although rates would rise further, they are nearing the point where they could “sit and wait” for a while.
Given the above, AUDUSD briefly slipped below the 0.64 handle, while AUDJPY fell below the 94.00 handle, and EURAUD reclaimed the 1.56 handle.
Looking ahead, today’s main event will be US CPI in the upcoming US session. However, there are also central bank speakers scheduled throughout the day, including BoE’s Ramsden and Tenreyro, Fed’s Mester and George, and BoC Governor Macklem.
Usd-jpy
USDJPY M30: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 145.90On the M30 time frame, prices are showing bullish order flow and a throwback to the support zone at 145.90, in line with the graphical resistance-turned-support zone and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level presents an opportunity to play the bounce to the next resistance zone at 147.60. This 147.60 resistance zone lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Prices are holding above the Ichimoku cloud as well, supporting the bullish bias.
USDJPY is taking a break? 🦐USDPY on the 4h chart after an incredible bullish run has retraced over a support around the 147 level.
The market is currently trading above the structure and during this week some big news such as FOMC today and the NFP on Friday might affect the US pairs.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for the price to break and close below the level and if that happen i will consider a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
USD/JPYUSD/JPY
The speculative volumes associated with the reaction to the NFP have already been closed, and the pair is forming a new protection zone. A short-term strong reaction to the US election results is possible, but fundamental targets above the 150 zone are still relevant. The probability of an upward reversal after a correction to the 145 zones is high.
Could the USDJPY reach 149 again?The USDJPY fell slightly overnight but continues to trade along the support area of 146.70.
As the price consolidates but fails to trade lower from this support level, look for a recovery in the strength of the DXY, which could cause the USDJPY to rebound higher, toward the interim resistance 148 to 149 price area.
However, if the price breaks below 146.00, the USDJPY could trade significantly lower toward the next key support and round number level of 145.00.
Yen ranges, despite recent volatilityThe USDJPY reversed from the high of 148.45 to reach a low of 146.60 due to the weakening of the DXY. The USDJPY is likely to continue trading within a wide range, similar to the previous week, with no clear directional bias.
If the USDJPY breaks above 148.80, it could continue climbing towards 150. However, it is more likely that the USDJPY could trade lower towards 145, especially if the price breaks below the near term support of 146.60.
USDJPY 4hour Analysis November 6th, 2022USDJPY Bearish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: Overall we have seen UJ be extremely bullish the last few months but now we’re seeing some 4hour bearishness with a ton of consolidation.
Ideally this descending triangle pattern holds and price action continues bearish again. Look for clear bearish conviction to enter short.
Trade scenario 2: For us to consider UJ bullish again we would first need to break some lower highs and start heading toward 150.000 resistance again.
USD JPY WEEKLY ANALYSISHere is a screenshot of my Daily:
Still a lot of trading opportunity to trade the triangle until price breaks, but id rather be patient for the big move when price breaks out.
Here is a screenshot of what My weekly:
I am looking to buy once price pushes pass 148.893
I am looking to sell once price drops below 145.893
USDJPY M30: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 147.20 On the M30 time frame, prices are testing the support zone at 147.20, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci level where we could see further upside to the resistance zone at 147.80. The 147.80 resistance zone coincides with the graphical resistance, descending trend line and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Failure to hold above the support zone at 147.20 could see prices push lower to test the next support zone at 146.80.
InvestMate|USD/JPY waterfall coming up💱USD/JPY waterfall coming up.
💱For some time now, since 21 October to be precise, we have seen a trend reversal on the USD/JPY pair.
💱The reversal was abrupt in nature, it was done through the monetary intervention that Japan made in order to stop weakening its currency.
💱Is there a chance that the uptrend that has been running on this pair since 3 October 2011 will be reversed?
💱Rather not, but a correction of the wave that has gained strength since January last year should finally take place.
💱I think we are in an ideal place to make such a correction.
💱This is due to the fact that Interest Rates in the US, have now been discounted and there is no longer as much of a push to raise them as a result of slowing inflation, and the not so terrible recession that most feared.
💱The market is still expecting one more interest rate hike tomorrow to the 4% level but given the positive sentiment and the already discounted news I think the decision may not have a significant impact on the price of the dollar with the Japanese yen.
💱 Confirming my thesis on the lower intervals we can see that from the intervention to the bottom measuring this wave. We made a correction of 50% after which we started to slide sharply, this can be seen by the size of the candles accompanying the descent standing out against the upward ones.
💱Wondering where the price might go I made 2 measurements. 1 measuring the fibo from the covid bottom which shows that the first important correction level falls to us at 0.236 which is at the price level of 140. The 2nd measurement is measuring the overbalance of the largest correction in the uptrend impulse lasting from the covid bottom which results at 143.
💱It is up to you to make a verdict on which of these levels we will see final
💱 Taking a position at the current moment the stop order will be at 148.280 and the take profit at one to one or around 143 giving us a risk/reward ratio of 3.72
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
USDJPY 4hour Analysis October 30th, 2022USDJPY Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: Looking very bullish going into this week. UJ is performing exactly how we want it to after the recent bearish volume we’ve seen.
Price action is currently respecting 145.000 support and could be setting up for a nice long opportunity soon.
Going into this week look for further bullish rejection off of our 145.000 support zone and look to target higher toward 150.000 resistance.
Trade scenario 2: For us to see UJ as more of a bearish chart we need to see key support at 145.000 broken. If we see this look for lower highs below to confirm the bearish trend.
Will the BoJ continue to Diverge?YES!
The BoJ is expected to release its monetary policy report today, and all signs point to the BoJ maintaining its current stance. Keeping with the negative rates of -0.1%. The BoJ is the last major central bank yet to jump onto the interest rate hike path, diverging from the rest of the world.
Releasing an unchanged monetary policy report at the last BoJ meeting in September saw the USDJPY fluctuate by almost 190 pips at the 144.50 price level before climbing higher by 135 pips to reach 145.90.
If we see a similar price action this time around, the USDJPY could fluctuate significantly along the 146.50 price level before climbing higher beyond 147 to test as high as the 148.50 (50% Fibonacci retracement level).
However, the threat of further intervention from the BoJ still looms. As the USDJPY climbs higher, look for possible action from the BoJ, to take the USDJPY back toward the 145 price level, and beyond that, the 140.70 key support level.
The safest sell-stop order would be below 145, SL: 50pips TP: 350pips (Risk to Reward of 1:6.9).
A slightly more adventurous sell-limit order would be below 147 SL: 40pips TP: 170 pips (Risk to Reward of 1:4)
Did you hear what happened to the YEN?On Friday 21st October, the USDJPY had been climbing steadily, almost reaching the round number of 152.00. Then it reversed and spiked lower, from 151.50 reaching a low of 146.20.
This move was very similar to what happened on the 22nd of September, when the USDJPY climbed above 145 and almost reached 146 before crashing down to 140.35.
However, when the USDJPY came down in September, the BOJ did say that they had taken action to intervene and even announced that they had spent 2.84 trillion yen to prop up the yen. This time, in October, authorities from the Ministry of Finance have remained silent on whether they made any further attempts to support the currency including on Friday
With the BOJ policy decision on Friday (the intervention on 22 September was after the release of the BOJ policy decision). Look for further downside on the USDJPY, especially if the price breaks below the 147 support level, with 145 as the next key support level.
*Remember to check out my previous analysis on the Yen and the BOJ Intervention
USDJPY 4hour Analysis October 23rd, 2022USDJPY Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: Last week we saw a huge drop on UJ but it is still bullish, that’s how bullish overall we have been on higher timeframes.
Ideally, we would love to see some consolidation to get a clearer look at price action but all we have is volume so scenarios are scarce.
The most likely scenario is price action surging back to 150.000 with consolidation following.
Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider another scenario we would look for price action to fall lower with consolidation closer to our 145.000 support level.
USDJPY: Japan intervention is not enough to change major trend.Hey traders, as the monetary policy in the US remains aggressive we still see a possibility of continuation to the upsides on USDJPY unless fed becomes Dovish but it's still not going to happen as inflation in the US is still an issue and the main focus for the US is to control inflation, so what we can expect? more rate hikes, more USD bulls and potentially a continuation of USDJPY uptrend. hence in the coming week we will be monitoring USDJPY for a long term buying opportunity around 146 zone, remember to avoid using tight Stop losses in this type of environments since USDJPY movements will be more volatile and violent and respecting a proper risk management is always recommended so you avoid blowing your accounts, sticking to 1% risk with proper reward ratio will not allow allow the market to you knock you off.
if you have any question don't hesitate to ask in the comment section.