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Usd-jpy

USDJPY Up 18%The USDJPY is now up 18% since breaking out from the major resistance at 125.85 from the June 2015 high. In the recent post for the USDJPY, price was up 11%, so it has seen good growth since then. The move is no surprise as price broke out from long-term consolidation, lasting almost 7 years. Following this strong current move, we can expect another period of long-term consolidation. This is why we want to catch the big moves as they happen. Price is now approaching the 150 round number which is a psychological level of resistance. We may see price hesitate around this level. Whether price will break beyond 150 or reverse will be down to who comes out on top, the buyers or the sellers. We have multiple positions in this forex pair. We are now managing our positions and will compound if and when the time is right. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
4
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.8%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). Another choppy week for the USD finishing 0.5% stronger on the week but keeping a small range. With a quiet week ahead on the data side, the USD is most likely going to get most of it’s momentum from overall risk flows. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.0% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The calendar is extremely light in the week ahead, which means overall risk sentiment could be the biggest source of momentum (which means keeping a close eye on further equity and bond market sell offs). Keep in mind earnings season gets a bit mor exciting this week and will be important to watch for risk. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. Japanese authorities intervened in the FX market in September by buying JPY and selling Dollars for the first time since 1998. The intervention saw some short-term downside of USDJPY , but as of Friday USDJPY almost reached 149 without any sign of further intervention action. The bias for USDJPY remains higher fundamentally speaking as yield differentials are still very wide, so unless authorities actively intervene the JPY can continue to weaken. The risk of buying is that we buy into interventions, which means risks are high. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI , lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF. Watch Core CPI on Friday. Any print above 3.4% would be the highest inflation in 40 years and could spark speculation of less dovish policy action from the BoJ and should be JPY positive. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI , better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying. Watch Core CPI on Friday. If Core CPI prints below 3.4% and BoJ officials talk down the rise as mostly transitory it could add further pressure on the JPY. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
by thunderpips
7
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.8%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). Another choppy week for the USD finishing 0.5% stronger on the week but keeping a small range. With a quiet week ahead on the data side, the USD is most likely going to get most of it’s momentum from overall risk flows. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.0% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The calendar is extremely light in the week ahead, which means overall risk sentiment could be the biggest source of momentum (which means keeping a close eye on further equity and bond market sell offs). Keep in mind earnings season gets a bit mor exciting this week and will be important to watch for risk. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. Japanese authorities intervened in the FX market in September by buying JPY and selling Dollars for the first time since 1998. The intervention saw some short-term downside of USDJPY, but as of Friday USDJPY almost reached 149 without any sign of further intervention action. The bias for USDJPY remains higher fundamentally speaking as yield differentials are still very wide, so unless authorities actively intervene the JPY can continue to weaken. The risk of buying is that we buy into interventions, which means risks are high. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI, lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF. Watch Core CPI on Friday. Any print above 3.4% would be the highest inflation in 40 years and could spark speculation of less dovish policy action from the BoJ and should be JPY positive. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI, better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying. Watch Core CPI on Friday. If Core CPI prints below 3.4% and BoJ officials talk down the rise as mostly transitory it could add further pressure on the JPY. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
by thunderpips
6
USDJPY 4hour Analysis October 16th, 2022USDJPY Neutral Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: No surprise that UJ is looking extremely bullish again this week. We’re far from an entry any way you cut it but ideally price action rejects at current resistance (149.000) and starts heading lower to form structure. If we see price action move similarly to the blue trade scenario then we will have a great entry opportunity. Anything else I'm not currently interested in. Trade scenario 2: The other likely scenario is that UJ does not reject at resistance but instead breaks above our 149.000 zone. We will have to re-analyze and come up with new scenarios if that happens.
Long
by ForexLeague
USDJPY Testing the top of its 5 month Megaphone. Rejection?The USDJPY pair rose aggressively last week, breaking above its September 22 High, the Resistance at the time. The price came on Friday as close as possible to the top (Higher Highs) trend-line of its 5-month Bullish Megaphone pattern. That alone would be enough to reject the uptrend and pull the price back on its own. But this isn't the only metric pointing towards a rejection. As you see on the RSI and MACD indicators below the chart, the 1D RSI also hit its 5-month Lower Highs trend-line. This is the 2nd Lower High within 5 weeks and when that happened previously, the pair priced its short-term top and pulled-back. Same with the 1D MACD, which just printed a Bullish Cross. As you see when a Bullish Cross took place that close to the Megaphone's top, the price formed a High and pulled-back. As for how deep a potential pull-back can go? The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the short-term target, with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being the medium-term, having formed the last bottom on August 02. Naturally the pattern is completed on the Higher Lows trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
5
usdjpy USD/JPY HITS A FRESH 34-YEAR HIGH AT 148.85 BEFORE TICKING DOWN The dollar takes a breather after reaching 148.85 high. Monetary policy divergence crushes the yen. USD/JPY: Potential top at 149.17/150.00. The dollar accelerated its rally against the Japanese yen on Friday to hit session highs at 148.85. The pair has surged beyond 3% in an eight-day rally, reaching its highest levels since 1990. YEN HAMMERED BY MONETARY POLICY DIVERGENCE The Japanese yen is dropping like a stone weighed by the monetary policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, and also the rest of the world’s major central banks. While the Fed is expected to hike interest rates by 0.75% for the fourth consecutive time in November, the Bank of Japan remains committed to its ultra-expansive policy, which makes the yen less attractive for investors. At this point, the pair has appreciated well above the level that triggered intervention by the Bank of Japan last month. So far the bank has remained inactive, however, the Japanese finance minister Suzuki reiterated on Thursday the government’s commitment to take action against excessive currency volatility. USD/JPY: POTENTIAL TOP AT 149.17/150.00 AREA – CREDIT SUISSE According to FX analysts at Credit Suisse, the pair might be near a potential top: “Our bias remains for a deeper push higher into the 147.62/153.01 zone with resistance above 147.62/68 seen next at 148.42 ahead of trend resistance from April at 149.17. With rare gap resistance from August 1990 seen at 149.31 and the psychological 150.00 barrier just above, we look for a potential top in this 149.17/150.00 zone.”
Long
by DrGhanizadeh
1
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE Japan’s government finally had enough in the past week by intervening to sell USD and buying JPY for the first time since 1998 two weeks ago. Officials were smart enough to keep details low, which has left JPY sellers cautious of more intervention. In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. The currency intervention doesn’t solve all of the currency’s issues, but it also means there could be more safe-haven appeal for the JPY, so seeing how risk holds up after Friday’s flush across major asset classes will be important to watch. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI , lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI , better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
by thunderpips
1
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE Japan’s government finally had enough in the past week by intervening to sell USD and buying JPY for the first time since 1998 two weeks ago. Officials were smart enough to keep details low, which has left JPY sellers cautious of more intervention. In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. The currency intervention doesn’t solve all of the currency’s issues, but it also means there could be more safe-haven appeal for the JPY, so seeing how risk holds up after Friday’s flush across major asset classes will be important to watch. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI , lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI , better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
by thunderpips
6
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE Japan’s government finally had enough in the past week by intervening to sell USD and buying JPY for the first time since 1998 two weeks ago. Officials were smart enough to keep details low, which has left JPY sellers cautious of more intervention. In recent weeks, yield differentials of course have been the biggest driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, right now the JPY is pressured as yields have soared for the sky, but the threat and risk of further intervention could keep weakness limited. The currency intervention doesn’t solve all of the currency’s issues, but it also means there could be more safe-haven appeal for the JPY, so seeing how risk holds up after Friday’s flush across major asset classes will be important to watch. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that push US10Y lower (less hawkish Fed, lower UC CPI, lower growth) could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any additional intervention from the BoJ or MoF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, higher US CPI, better growth) could pressure the JPY. Catalyst that triggers meaningful upside in Oil (deteriorating demand, increased supply) could trigger JPY downside. Reluctance from BoJ and MoF for intervening around the 145 level in USDJPY could spark speculative buying. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY due to yield differentials and the impact of a weaker JPY on the current account balance. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no currency intervention occurs, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower, especially with the risk of further currency intervention should the JPY continue to weaken. The best opportunities for now remain short-term focused on further intervention or strong moves lower in US yields.
by thunderpips
3
USDJPY 4hour Analysis October 9th, 2022USDJPY Bullish Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bullish 4hour Trend: Bullish Trade scenario 1: We are still bullish on UJ and it looks like we will continue with this trend through the week. Ideally, price action forms a higher low near 145.000 support with strong bullish variations to follow. Look to target higher toward our -27% fib level. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider UJ bearish again the first move we need to see is a break back below 145.000 support.
Long
by ForexLeague
USDJPY Potential for Bearish Momentum | 4th Oct 2022The USDJPY is in a strong bullish trend on the H4 chart. In addition, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Due to the uptrend, I'm looking for a sell entry at 144.887, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line is, and I'm expecting a pullback. The stop loss will be set at 145.900, the previous swing high. Take profit will be at 143.375, where the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci lines intersect. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
3
USDJPY Potential for Bearish MomentumOn H4, with the price rejecting the previous swing high level, we're looking for a potential pullback sell entry at 145.007 where the swing high sits to take profit at 142.570 where the 23.6% retracement sits. Our stop loss is placed at 145.971 where the previous swing high sits Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Can I tell you about: The BoJ InterventionThe USDJPY had been climbing strongly especially as the price broke above the 140.50 resistance level to an overall high of 145.90. However, before the high of 145.90 was reached, the price had been resisted by the 145-round number resistance level. On the 14th of September , as the USDJPY tested the 145 resistance level again, the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check, in apparent preparation for currency intervention. The signaling of the BoJ's intention to intervene in the Forex market saw the USDJPY trade lower towards the 142.50 support level. On 22nd September , with the release of the BoJ monetary policy decision maintaining at -0.1% and failing to indicate an intervention from the BoJ, the USDJPY traded with significant volatility but eventually traded higher towards the 145.90 price level. As the price hit the 145.90 price level, the BoJ announced that it had intervened in the foreign exchange market, to buy the yen for the first time since 1998, in an attempt to shore up the battered currency. This saw the UDSJPY plunge to around 140.36 yen. However, as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki declined to disclose how much authorities had spent buying yen, whether other countries had consented to the move, and with no subsequent signs of further intervention, the Yen has almost completely retraced the reactionary plunge. Currently trading below the 145 resistance level and the 78.60% fib level, the directional bias of the USDJPY is still heavily dependent on the strength of the USD and the overall volatility of the DXY. But it could be a while more before we see the USDJPY trade higher beyond the 146 resistance level.
by JinDao_Tai