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Usd-jpy

USDJPY Potential for Bearish Continuation| 18th August 2022On the H4 chart, prices seem to have pull back a little but the overall trend is still bearish biased. we're looking for sell entry around 135.484 where the 61.8% retracement and 78.6% projection is. If bearish momentum continues, it should hit the take profit at 131.711. alternatively, it will hit stop loss at 137.442 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their July meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), the Fed confirmed a more data-dependent stance at their July meeting, explaining that the pace of hikes is likely to slow as rates get more restrictive and as more data becomes available. STIR markets have repriced lower to reflect this, and the USD also took a bit of a knock on the back of the policy decision. With the Fed signalling data-dependence, the incoming growth, inflation and jobs data will be a key driver for USD price action where we expect a cyclical reaction to incoming data (good data being good and bad data being bad for the USD and US10Y ). Even though high inflation saw investors shun traditional safe havens like US bonds, the price action in the past few weeks saw US yields push lower as the growth story is starting to gain more traction. That means, even though the bias for the USD remains bullish (especially as a safe haven during cyclical slowdowns), the incoming data will be the biggest driver as markets will use it to assess the timing and length of the Fed’s current hiking cycle. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed’s data-dependent messaging pushing rates lower, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Any further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to levels that previously acted as local tops. Stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to shortterm corrections, especially with bad US data points. With a lot still priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about growth than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem a while away. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. However, the data dependence stance from the Fed means we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could impact the USD negatively, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice, any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, and a dual-growth narrative (one being good for the USD and the other being bad for the USD) we prefer short-term catalysts that offer short-term sentiment-based trades. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. If this continues it should continue to support the currency on any negative data surprises from the US, especially given the size of current JPY short positions. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the biasremains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities . It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
1
USDJPY H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 136.00On the H4 time frame, prices are approaching the resistance zone at 136.00 which lines up with the Fibonacci confluence levels. We could see a reversal below the 136.00 resistance zone to our support zone at 131.80 which is also the graphical support zone. Failure to hold above the resistance zone at 136.00 could see prices push higher to the next resistance zone at 137.50. Stochastics is approaching resistance at 98.87 as well, supporting the bearish bias.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
USDJPY Potential for Bullish momentumOn the H4 chart, prices seem to have pull back a little to our buy entry level at 134.274 where our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement sits. if price continues with bullish momentum, it should hit our take profit at 135.622 where the 61.8% retracement and 78.6% projection sits. Alternatively, it will hit stop loss at 132.508 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY Potential for Bearish Continuation| 17th August 2022On the H4 chart, prices seem to have pull back a little but the overall trend is still bearish biased. we're looking for sell entry aroundf 134.582 where the 61.8% retracement and 100% projection is. If bearish momentum continues, it should hit the take profit at 131.731. alternatively, it will hit stop loss at 135.559 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDJPY Potential for Bearish Continuation| 16th August 2022On the H4 chart, prices seem to have pull back a little but the overall trend is still bearish biased. Price is moving toward the intermediate resistance at 133.908 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement , that will be the sell entry. If bearish momentum continues, it should hit the take profit at 131.785. alternatively, it will hit stop loss at 134.582 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY Potential for Bearish Continuation| 16th August 2022On the H4 chart, prices seem to have pull back a little but the overall trend is still bearish biased. Price is moving toward the intermediate resistance at 133.908 which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement, that will be the sell entry. If bearish momentum continues, it should hit the take profit at 131.785. alternatively, it will hit stop loss at 134.582 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD/JPY/CHF – The safe-haven currencies bounced on Monday, supported by a series of disappointing Chinese data releases, bolstering concerns surrounding the global economic outlook. Summarising the data releases from China, Reuters succinctly noted that “Chinese industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all fell short of analyst estimates in data published on Monday, as a nascent recovery from draconian COVID-19 lockdowns faltered.”
by thunderpips
6
USDJPY for a lower low 🦐USDJPY on the 4h after the recent low retraced at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The price after a long bull run might look for some more bearish retracement and is currently creating a potential break to the downside. How can we approach this scenario? We will wait for a break of the support area and in that case we will search for a possible short order entry according to the Plancton's academy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
2
USDJPY Potential for Bearish MomentumOn the H4, prices are still respecting the descending trend. we're looking to place a sell entry at 133.902 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement sits. if price continues the bearish momentum, it will bring price down to our take profit level at 131.503 which is also the 61.8% projection level. alternatively, if prices breaks the descending trend, it will hit the stop loss at 135.329 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY Potential for Bearish Continuation| 15th August 2022On the H4, prices are still respecting the descending trend and our sell entry is at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement 133.907 when prices pull back. Prices will continue with the bearish momentum, and we're looking to take profit at 131.785. Alternatively if prices fail to continue with the bearish trend, we are expecting prices to hit our stop loss at 134.525 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their July meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), the Fed confirmed a more data-dependent stance at their July meeting, explaining that the pace of hikes is likely to slow as rates get more restrictive and as more data becomes available. STIR markets have repriced lower to reflect this, and the USD also took a bit of a knock on the back of the policy decision. With the Fed signalling data-dependence, the incoming growth, inflation and jobs data will be a key driver for USD price action where we expect a cyclical reaction to incoming data (good data being good and bad data being bad for the USD and US10Y ). Even though high inflation saw investors shun traditional safe havens like US bonds, the price action in the past few weeks saw US yields push lower as the growth story is starting to gain more traction. That means, even though the bias for the USD remains bullish (especially as a safe haven during cyclical slowdowns), the incoming data will be the biggest driver as markets will use it to assess the timing and length of the Fed’s current hiking cycle. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed’s data-dependent messaging pushing rates lower, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Any further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to levels that previously acted as local tops. Stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to shortterm corrections, especially with bad US data points. With a lot still priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about growth than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem a while away. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. However, the data dependence stance from the Fed means we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could impact the USD negatively, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice, any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, and a dual-growth narrative (one being good for the USD and the other being bad for the USD) we prefer short-term catalysts that offer short-term sentiment-based trades. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities, so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. If this continues it should continue to support the currency on any negative data surprises from the US, especially given the size of current JPY short positions. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation, faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y remain elevated and the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the biasremains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities. It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
1
USDJPY 4hour Analysis August 14th, 2022USDJPY Bearish Idea Weekly Trend: Bullish Daily Trend: Bearish 4hour Trend: Bearish Trade scenario 1: Looking bearish on the daily & 4hour timeframe for UJ and we’re looking to continue with that bearish trend. Ideally price action breaks support at 133.000 and forms structure below. Look to target lower toward key support around 129.500. Trade scenario 2: For us to consider UJ more bullish we would need to see rejection off 133.000 support right now and start pushing higher.
Short
by ForexLeague
Week Ahead Stock prices went down a lot during trading on Thursday, but they went up a lot during trading on Friday. Because of the rally that happened during the day, the main averages set new highs for the first quarter as they closed. As the trading day came to an end, the main averages went up even more, and at the end of the session, they were at their highest levels of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 424.38 points, or 1.3% , to 33,761.05 . The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 267.27 points, or 2.1 %, to 13,047.19 , while the S&P500 rose 72.88 points, or 1.7% , to 4,280.15. The S&P 500 index went up by 3.3 % over the course of the week, giving it its fourth straight weekly gain. The Nasdaq and Dow both gained 3.1 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively. The current trend of stocks going up has continued, so the main averages are now much higher than they were in June and have reached their highest levels in the last three months. As a result of data showing that consumer and producer prices were lower than expected, there is hope that inflation has reached its peak, which has also helped Wall Street keep going. The U.S. Department of Labor (Labor Department) recently released a study that showed prices for goods brought into the U.S. from other countries fell more than expected in July. The prices paid for imported goods went down by 1.4 % in July, according to the Department of Labor. This was after an increase of 0.3% in June that was later changed to be higher. Since import costs hadn't gone down since December of 2021, this was a big change. Instead of the 0.2% increase in import prices that was first reported for the previous month, economists had expected import prices to drop by 1.0% . The survey also showed that the prices of goods sold abroad went down by 3.3% in July after going up by 0.7% in June. It was expected that export prices would go down by 1.1% . According to a University of Michigan study, consumer mood in the United States improved much more than expected in August. This made people more interested in buying things. According to the survey, the index that shows how consumers feel about the economy went up from 51.5 in July to 55. 1 in August. The average prediction of economists was that the index would go up to 52.5. After hitting a new all-time low of 50. 0 in June, the index of consumer sentiment kept going up in July, with a bigger gain than had been expected. According to another report from the University of Michiga n, inflation estimates for the next year dropped from 5.2 percent in July to 5.0 percent in August, but inflation estimates for the next five years went up from 2.9 percent t to 3.0 percent. Estimates of inflation for one year are at their lowest level since February, but Director of Surveys of Consumers Joanne Hsu pointed out that these estimates are still much higher than the 4.6 percent figure from one year ago. The main reason why the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index went up by three percent was that the prices of semiconductor stocks went back up after falling earlier in the week. The NYSE Arca Airline Index went up by 2.8% to a closing high that hadn't been seen in the market for two months. This shows that airline stocks were also very strong. The strong performance of networking stocks all day led directly to a gain of 2.6 percentage points for the NYSE Arca Networking Index. At the end of the session, the market index hit its highest level in well over three months. Gold stocks, chemical stocks, and brokerage stocks all moved up a lot, as did most of the other main market segments. Different Markets Friday's trading on stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region was a mixed bag, which shows how uncertain the region's economy is as a whole. After a holiday on Thursday, the Nikkei 225 Index in Japan went up by 2.6 percentage points , but the Shanghai Composite Index in China went down by 0.2 percentage poin ts. At the same time, on any given day, all of the major European markets were up. While the DAX Index in Germany went up by 0.7% , the FTSE 100 Index in the UK went up by 0.5%, and the CAC 40 Index in France went up by 0.1%. The value of Treasury's was able to make up some ground on the bond market after losing a lot during the previous session. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note fell by 3.9 basis points to 2.849 percent, moving in the opposite direction of its price. Along with the flood of housing statistics coming out next week, reports on retail sales and industrial output are sure to get a lot of attention. Traders will almost certainly keep a close eye on the minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting, hoping to learn something new about how interest rates will move in the future.
TVC:US10Y
by TayFx
USDJPY Potential for Bearish Continuation| 12th August 2022On the H4, prices are still respecting the descending trend and are testing the 50% fibonacci retracement . If prices continues with the bearish momentum, we are looking at price pulling back to our sell entry at 135.586 where the fibonacci 61.8% sits. if price were to continue with the bearish trend , it will hit our profit level at 131.434 which is also the fibonacci 61.8% projection. alternatively, price could pull back to our stop loss at 137.424 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY Potential for Bearish Continuation| 12th August 2022On the H4, prices are still respecting the descending trend and are testing the 50% fibonacci retracement. If prices continues with the bearish momentum, we are looking at price pulling back to our sell entry at 135.586 where the fibonacci 61.8% sits. if price were to continue with the bearish trend, it will hit our profit level at 131.434 which is also the fibonacci 61.8% projection. alternatively, price could pull back to our stop loss at 137.424 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDJPY Potential for Bearish MomentumOn the H4, prices are still respecting the descending trend and are testing the 50% fibonacci retracement. If prices continues with the bearish momentum, we are looking to place a sell order at 133.512 and take profit at 131.691 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection sits. Alternatively, price could hit the stop lost the the previous swing high 135.371 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY Potential for bullish riseOn the H4, with price moving within an ascending channel and expected to bounce off the stochastic support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to buy entry at 134.288 where the pullback resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking entry structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to take profit at 136.660 where the overlap resistance, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, price could drop to stop loss at 131.507 where the pullback support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
USD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their July meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), the Fed confirmed a more data-dependent stance at their July meeting, explaining that the pace of hikes is likely to slow as rates get more restrictive and as more data becomes available. STIR markets have repriced lower to reflect this, and the USD also took a bit of a knock on the back of the policy decision. With the Fed signalling data-dependence, the incoming growth, inflation and jobs data will be a key driver for USD price action where we expect a cyclical reaction to incoming data (good data being good and bad data being bad for the USD). Even though high inflation saw investors shun traditional safe havens like US bonds, the price action in the past few weeks saw US yields push lower as the growth story is starting to matter mor. That means, even though the bias for the US Dollar remains bullish (especially as a safe haven during cyclical slowdowns), the incoming data will be the biggest driver as markets will use it to assess the timing and length of the Fed’s current hiking cycle. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed’s data-dependent messaging pushing rates lower, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Any further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to levels that previously acted as local tops. Stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to shortterm corrections, especially with bad US data points. With a lot still priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about growth than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem a while away. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. However, the data dependence stance from the Fed means we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it should impact the USD negatively, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice, any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, and a dual-growth narrative (one being good for the USD and the other being bad for the USD) we prefer short-term catalysts that offer short-term sentiment-based trades. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, yield differentials have been the biggest negative driver for the JPY with the BoJ keeping 10-year JGB yields capped at 0.25% with yield curve control while other central banks are hiking rates aggressively. Thus, the BoJ’s reluctance to shift on policy even with inflation starting to push higher remains a negative driver for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited in the current bear market compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports the bulk of their commodities , so very high energy prices has added to downside. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them. Having said that, US10Y and commodities have been reacting more and more negative to the current negative cyclical growth outlook, and as a result has seen big players trim their massive JPY shorts. If this continues it should continue to support the currency on any negative data surprises from the US, especially given the size of current JPY short positions. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation ) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation , faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY ) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation , better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their July meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. But take note of positioning which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside on big drops in US10Y & commodities . It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
1
USD/JPY:Price ready for a new Long Impulse ! LONG The USD/JPY after an important retracement has pullback in confluences of the 131.000 support level, 61.8% Fibo and the 200 Moving average where the price reacts with a strong Bullish impulse. Now the price is around the value of 135.000, the stochastic it's over the oversold area and the RSI turned bullish. The Forecast of Ichimoku è Bullish and all these clues give us a sign for a new Long setup for this strong currency pair.
Long
by FOREXN1
18