USD-NOK
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownUSD/NOK is currently trading in a short-term channel down. The given patter was formed when the US Dollar lost value against the Norwegian Krone within the last week, thus resulting in a breakout of a more senior channel.
The rate halted at a two-month low of 7.7276 and has since recovered minor loses. Even though daily technical indicators flash bearish signals, the rate is expected to appreciate until the upper channel boundary near the 7.80 mark prior to resuming its downward momentum.
The upper channel line roughly matches the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 7.81—a level that could eventually reverse the US Dollar to the downside. The fall may be limited by the weekly and monthly S1s in the 7.67/68 area.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: TriangleThe US Dollar was depreciating against the Norwegian Krone for several weeks when this momentum downwards allayed, thus resulting in the formation of a descending triangle. The lowest point of the fall, t.i., the 7.7571 mark, is likewise the 2016/2017 low. The pair was also trading in a symmetrical triangle which was breached to the upside last week. The Greenback has not yet made a retracement from this junior triangle; thus, there is still some downside potential that could be realised in the nearest hours. Taking into account the slight up-trend (which was formed by the lower boundary of the junior triangle), the rate might halt at this line near the 7.8800 mark and reverse to the upside.
USD/NOK changes in favour of bullsThe US Dollar has appreciated substantially against the Norwegian Krone, jumping more than 80% within the last eight years. The ultimate high was reached in January 2016 when the pair managed to push up to the 8.9682 mark. Subsequently, the Greenback traded lower and entered a long-term consolidation period that confined the price in the 8.8000/8.0000 territory. However, the rate’s slight steepness downwards resulted in the formation of a falling wedge that has already provided three confirmations on each side.
Currently, the rate has reached the bottom boundary of the wedge pattern and is flashing some strong signals to a possible appreciation within the following months. Starting from technical oscillators located in the strongly oversold area and MACD being at an historical low, ending with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a Gann period line (drawn from 8.9682) situated near the current price level. It should be noted that the former taken from the ultimate low to high (at 4.9585 and 8.9682, respectively) has worked effectively at identifying possible areas of reversal. Even though trend indicators are still demonstrating the prevalence of a relatively strong down-trend, it is likely that the rate has not simply recovered from the latest monthly plunge of almost 8%.
In terms of a possible upside target, the US Dollar may shoot up as high as the 8.6000 mark where an intersection of the upper wedge boundary and a Gann period line is located. Moreover, the 55-, 100- and 200-day SMAs are likely to be situated in the same territory at the time.
Moving on to the hourly chart, it is apparent that the USD/NOK exchange rate is trading in a channel down in force since early July. The rate failed to hit the bottom wedge boundary and thus reversed in the middle of the pattern. In case the rate manages to reach the upper channel line, it may function as a strong signal that a breakout to the upside may be due.
By and large, daily technical indicators were rather clear in terms of the rate’s long-term appreciation; thus, the senior channel down is expected to be breached within the upcoming trading days. The price moving above the 100- and 200-hour SMAs may function as the necessary confirmation that this upward momentum is not a temporary correction, but a start of an intermediate up-trend.
Down Trend Confirmed The 14. of March it failed making new highs. Didn't get much support yesterday to stay at 10ema. Indications is leaning towards a short, but major moving averages is coming up, and one should be aware that it might mean it'll zig zag in the shorter term charts. Pretty lofty SL I have set for my self. Looking through the macro economics show that Norway isn't as strong as they used to be. Currently I believe more in the dollar.
USDNOK. Incredible BAT pattern and over-extended GartleyChek out a mega-BAT pattern which have been developing for almost 15 years! It completed by December last year but there is still a piece of a downtrend which can be taken.
Will short from 8.21 or by market
SL: 8.42
TP: 7.44
Long based on an overextended Gartley:
Entry point: 7.45
SL: 7.25
TP1: 8.02
TP2: 8.40
TP3: 10.00 (not based on these patterns)
USDNOK potential bearish cypher pattern Will be looking to enter a short position at 8.84658 if the cypher pattern holds up.
Stop loss is based on previous structure as indicated by the red line.
Take profit is based on Fibonacci levels.
Unfortunately the risk/reward isn't the best I've ever seen, but I will still be looking to take this trade.
Fundamentals
Aren't any particularly exciting fundamentals to support this cypher pattern, although based on the current consolidation of crude oil (Norway's economy depends strongly on oil exports) as well as uncertainty in the US economy, an up and down move is definitely not unreasonable.
WTI Crude Continues Down, Therefore NOK Continues UP! Bonjour,
Do you guys remember the trade in USD/NOK? If not, here is the link to remind you:
We've since taken a similar trade ... mainly based on the fact that WTI Crude is seeing more downwards pressure after a small rally.
Congrats to all of our members, and do you know if you should stay for profit target #2 or not? By joining our ever expanding trading family you'll know...
À bientôt,
Maxmillian DuPont
(www.myfxlifestyle.com)
Clear breakout in USD/NOKBonjour,
today our "VIP" members took an aggressive trade in the USD/NOK pair. After noticing the downwards trend bottoming out, we opened two long positions on a breakout @ 8.7525. Scaled out of the first position at 8.7925 and closed out the second at 8.8270.
Both positions were closed out early, it runs out. However, we stuck to your predetermined risk profile and rode this one out for a great trade that pocketed us 1145 pips in total. Congrats to all "VIP" members in the room today.
À bientôt,
Maxmillian DuPont
(www.myfxlifestyle.com)