USDCHF Will the Downtrend Break or Bounce? Full Trade Plan TodayUSDCHF – Will the Downtrend Break or Bounce? | Full Trade Plan Today 🔥
🌍 Macro Overview
USDCHF remains in a short-term bearish correction, reflecting current macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding US interest rate expectations and safe-haven demand for CHF.
USD is under pressure after softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data last week, increasing speculation that the Fed may cut rates in Q3.
CHF continues to benefit from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and fragile European growth.
However, the key support around 0.8318 has acted as a major demand zone. If bulls react strongly here, we could see a technical rebound in the short term.
📉 Technical Analysis (H1–H2)
USDCHF is trading within a descending channel, showing lower highs and lower lows.
Price is now testing the lower boundary of the channel around 0.8318, which also aligns with a key liquidity area.
EMAs (13 and 34) still slope downward, but momentum is slowing — a possible signal that sellers are losing strength.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
🔺 Resistance Zones:
0.8395 → Recent swing high & supply zone
0.8459 → Medium-term structural resistance
🔻 Support Zones:
0.8318 → Major confluence zone (channel bottom + demand block)
0.8230 → Final support level before deeper drop
🎯 Trade Setups
✅ Scenario A – Bullish Reversal from Support (Preferred):
Entry (Buy): 0.8318 – 0.8322 (after bullish rejection confirmation)
Stop Loss: 0.8288
Take Profits: 0.8395 → 0.8430 → 0.8459
✅ Scenario B – Bearish Breakdown Below Support:
Entry (Sell): 0.8300 – 0.8310 (only if price closes below 0.8310 on H2)
Stop Loss: 0.8340
Take Profits: 0.8260 → 0.8230 → 0.8200
⚠️ What to Watch Today:
Market may see higher volatility during the US session, especially with housing data (Existing Home Sales) and Fed speakers lined up.
Watch for clean price action around 0.8318 — no need to rush entries until confirmation appears.
This is a reactive market, not a predictive one. Let price speak first.
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