Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.4106
1st Support: 1.3949
1st Resistance: 1.4300
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD (US Dollar)
Potential bullish rise?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.5692
1st Support: 0.5579
1st Resistance: 0.5798
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,790.01
1st Support: 2,721.96
1st Resistance: 2,929.89
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 71.56
1st Support: 66.57
1st Resistance: 74.65
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 151.90
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 151.08
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 153.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bearish drop off overlap resistance?USD/CHF is rising toward the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.9009
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 0.9057
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.8919
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce?USD/CAD is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4146
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.0472
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.4280
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0520
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that line sup with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.0576
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.0458
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EUR/USD Breakout Imminent? Key Resistance in Focus!📊 EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis – Bullish Breakout Incoming? 🚀
🔹 Key Levels:
Resistance Zone (Blue Box): Around 1.0450 - 1.0500
Support Zone (Red Box): Around 1.0250 - 1.0300
200 EMA (Red Line): Acting as a dynamic resistance near 1.0663
🔹 Price Action & Structure:
Price is testing a strong resistance zone (blue box) after multiple failed attempts.
A clean breakout above this level could trigger a bullish rally towards 1.0600 - 1.0700 (next resistance).
If rejected, a pullback towards 1.0300 before another attempt is possible.
🔹 Market Sentiment & Bias: ✅ Higher lows forming = bullish pressure building. ✅ Break and retest scenario likely, as indicated by the projection. ✅ 200 EMA remains a key target for bulls.
📈 Potential Trade Setup:
Breakout above 1.0500 → Buy opportunity
Rejection → Short-term pullback before another attempt
🎯 Bullish Confirmation Above 1.0500 📊💹
HelenP. I Euro may correct to trend line before continue to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. From this chart, it's clear that the price initially moved upward within a rising channel. At one point, it briefly dipped below the 1.0260 level but quickly recovered and pushed higher. After hovering around this level for a while, the price resumed its upward movement within the channel. Later, the Euro reached Support 1, which aligned with a support zone, and consolidated there for some time before breaking through. The price then climbed to 1.0520 before reversing and starting to decline. In a short span, it dropped back to Support 1, broke below it again, exited the channel, and fell further to the trend line, forming a strong gap and breaking through Support 2 along the way. However, the price soon reversed sharply, rallying back to Support 1 before correcting below the trend line. Following this correction, the price began to climb below the trend line, and after some time, EURUSD managed to break above both the trend line and Support 1. Currently, it is continuing its upward movement near the trend line. In my view, EURUSD is likely to drop back to the trend line before resuming its upward trajectory. With that in mind, I’ve set my target at 1.0560. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 - Weekly Analysis -EU ZEW - US FOMC/PMIThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 17-21 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment Weekly Chart AnalysisDaily Chart Analysis4H Chart AnalysisEconomic Events for the WeekRelated PostsLatest Weekly Analysis
Market Sentiment
Inflation Data Mix
U.S. CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected, signaling lingering inflation pressures.
However, softer underlying PPI components linked to the Fed’s preferred PCE metric raised hopes for a moderation in inflation next week.
Fed Policy Expectations
Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts later in 2025, despite the Fed’s current "wait-and-see" stance.
A softer PCE report next week could solidify bets on easing monetary policy, supporting risk assets like the Euro.
Trump’s Tariff Strategy
Markets dismissed Trump’s reciprocal tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than a prelude to a trade war.
Investors expect delays in implementation, reducing immediate fears of economic disruption.
Geopolitical Optimism
Progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swap discussions) eased global risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal.
Reduced geopolitical tensions benefit the Eurozone economy, indirectly lifting the Euro.
Central Bank Divergence
The ECB may cut rates further in 2025, but improving Eurozone data and reduced trade-war risks provide short-term EUR support.
The Fed’s cautious tone limits USD upside, creating a balanced tug-of-war.
Short-Term Bias
Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
This balance of factors suggests choppy but upward-leaning trading for EUR/USD.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week.
🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase.
🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low.
🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH.
🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase.
🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure.
🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback.
🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price could pullback to the recent Daily Demand before continuing Bullish.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.
🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move.
Economic Events for the Week
Euro will break resistance level and continue to grow nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. A few days ago, the price was trading within a range. It dropped to the seller's zone but immediately rebounded to the upper boundary of the range. Shortly after, the price began to decline, falling below the resistance level, breaking it, and exiting the range pattern. Following this move, the price dropped to the support line and continued to hover near it. Occasionally, it bounced back toward the resistance level but quickly reversed downward. The Euro continued to fall, reaching 1.0175 and breaking through the support level, which aligned with the buyer's zone. From there, it began to climb near another support line. Later, the price broke the support level once again but then rallied to the resistance level, breaking through that as well. Afterward, EUR formed its first gap, followed by a sharp drop to the buyer's zone, creating a second, stronger gap and breaking the support line. Subsequently, the Euro started to climb within an upward channel, where it formed a third gap. At the moment, it remains in this upward trajectory. Based on this, I believe the Euro will continue to rise within the channel and eventually break the resistance level. Once the breakout occurs, I expect the price to maintain its upward momentum, so my TP is set at 1.0550. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (UPDATE)Gold prices have plummeted today, down 460 PIPS so far. Price remains within a range if you look at price on the left, so I'll be keeping an eye to see how market closes & if price will push back up again.
If price does push up, I do have a possible buy scenario in play. For now we just let price do its thing & create a structure.
NZDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.57400 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.57400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
AUDUSD Is Close To The Daily ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.64000 zone, AUDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.64000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCAD (4H) - Bearish Break of Consolidation ZoneOANDA:USDCAD
📶Technical Analysis:
Weekly Chart:
🟠 Price is in a long-term bullish trend, confirmed by a trendline formed since 2021 and 3 MAs aligned bullish.
🟡 Price tested major resistance at 1.4600-1.4700, which was previously tested in 2016 and 2020.
🟢 Strong pullback after testing resistance, indicating a potential bearish reversal pattern.
Daily Chart:
🟢 Strong bearish candle on the daily chart confirms that the weekly resistance holds.
🟡 Price volatility influenced by Trump's tariff decision.
🟢 The bearish momentum on the daily chart confirms the trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
🔴 The next strong support is around 1.3900, where the price has failed to break five times.
4H Chart:
🟡 Price has been consolidating since Dec 2024 between 1.4450 (resistance) and 1.4300 (support).
🟡 Price initially broke above the range due to tariff news but quickly returned to the consolidation zone.
🟢 Strong bearish candle broke through the lower support at 1.43, signaling potential bearish continuation.
🟢 The break of support suggests a bearish outlook, with the next targets near 1.3900.
🟢 The Moving Averages (MAs) are crossing, indicating a potential shift to a bearish trend.
🔤 Summary:
🟡 Waiting for a retest of the broken 1.43 support level to confirm the bearish trend continuation.
🟡 Expecting a correction in the bearish trend with the formation of additional signal candles that confirm the bearish momentum after the retracement.
🟡 Watch for the formation of bearish candles after the correction, either near the broken support level or EMA levels for confirmation before entering the bearish trade.
XAUUSD (2H) - Strong Bullish TrendOANDA:XAUUSD
📶Technical Analysis:
🟢 Early February, the price tested the resistance zone at 2880.0, forming an all-time high. This level was retested twice before the strong breakout on February 10, pushing the price to a new all-time high around 2940.0.
🟢 After the new high, the market entered a correction phase, testing the support level at 2880.0 again. On February 12, the price revisited this zone, forming a strong bullish candle with a large lower shadow. This candle suggests a morning star pattern, a classic trend reversal signal, with buyers stepping in after the retracement.
🟢 The morning star pattern was followed by another bullish candle, confirming the potential reversal and support holding at 2880.0. This indicates that the market is likely to continue its bullish trend if the support level at 2880.0 holds.
🟠 The next critical level for XAUUSD is 2940.0. If the price fails to break above this resistance, a short-term reversal or sideways movement may occur. Watching for price action and candles around this level will be key for future trades.
🔤 Summary:
🟢 Support: 2880.0 (tested on February 12)
🔴 Resistance: 2940.0 (previous all-time high)
🟡 Given the bullish candle patterns and support holding at 2880.0, the trend appears to be strong, and a continuation higher could be expected. However, caution should be taken at the next level of resistance around 2940.0, where the previous high was formed
EURUSD 14 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - EU GDP - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
1. Impact of CPI and PPI on Inflation Expectations
CPI Outcome: The headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), while core CPI increased to 3.3% YoY, signaling persistent inflationary pressures 10. However, the market reaction was muted due to mixed signals.
PPI Analysis: The headline PPI exceeded forecasts (3.5% YoY), but key components linked to core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) suggested a potential moderation. Analysts noted that softer PCE data next week could ease Fed tightening fears, supporting risk assets like the Euro.
Investor Positioning: Futures traders now price in 33 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, up from 29 basis points pre-PPI, indicating growing optimism about disinflation.
2. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Negotiation vs. Trade War
Tariff Announcement: Trump’s directive to formulate reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel/aluminum) was not immediately implemented, with a delayed enforcement timeline (potentially April). Markets interpreted this as a negotiation tactic rather than an escalation into a trade war.
Market Reaction: The USD weakened (DXY fell to 107.25) as investors focused on the negotiation window and avoided panic-driven safe-haven flows. The Euro benefited from reduced trade-war fears, rising to $1.0469 in early Asian trade.
3. Geopolitical Optimism and Risk Sentiment
Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Reports of potential territory swaps and Trump’s mediation efforts bolstered risk appetite. A resolution could alleviate Eurozone energy and supply-chain pressures, supporting EUR/USD.
Equity Market Stability: European stocks (e.g., Euro STOXX 50) pared losses, with sectors like utilities and healthcare outperforming. This resilience reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven.
4. Central Bank Dynamics
The ECB is expected to cut rates further (market pricing in 3 cuts in 2025), while the Fed maintains a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. However, softer PCE expectations may narrow this divergence, favoring EUR/USD.
5. Key Risks and Catalysts Today
U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production:
Forecasts suggest a 0.2% MoM decline in retail sales (first drop in 5 months) and slower industrial production growth. Weak data could amplify USD selling.
Tariff Negotiation Updates: Any hints of tariff implementation timelines or retaliatory measures from the EU/China may reignite volatility.
Final Sentiment Summary
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously Bullish for EUR/USD.
Support Factors: Soft PCE expectations, delayed tariffs, and geopolitical optimism.
Investors will monitor retail sales data and tariff rhetoric for intraday momentum shifts. A softer PCE print next week could solidify bullish sentiment, while tariff escalation remains the primary risks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.
🔹Currently price is sweeping Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High. A decent pullback is also expected if the Liq. is enough and market sentiment is aligning with the pullback (Requires market Fear/ Risk-Off).
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing structures continued Bullish with 2 Bullish BOS yesterday (High Volatility).
🔹The current 15m Bullish structures confirms for me the 4H Bullish Swing continuation and we are targeting high.
🔹After the recent 15m Swing BOS, we expect a pullback.
Current structure doesn’t have much clear demand zone (the 70% of the structure is a 4H Demand zone).
🔹Price expected to have a pullback to the recent demand identified (Not well positioned as it’s in premium) or to structure EQ (50%)/Discount to continue Bullish and target the Weak Swing High.
🔹I want to note that the 4H had swept Liq. above 30 Jan High which could initiate a decent pullback on price after that aggressive move up.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation of price to continue Bullish as long the Swing Low hold and pullbacks are contained within the structure.
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting of the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 50% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 1.0463
1st Support: 1.0377
1st Resistance: 1.0522
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