NZDUSD: High CPI and Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.56400 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.56400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD (US Dollar)
NZDUSD preparing massive rebound on the 5-year Support Zone.The NZDUSD pair rebounded last week exactly at the top of the 5-year Support Zone. This is the 3rd time in total and first since October 10 2022.
As you can see, both previous times that this Support Zone was touched, the price reacted with an immediate rebound and skyrocketed to the long-term Resistance Zone (0.65150 - 0.65850). Also on both those bottoms, the 1W RSI broke below the 30.00 oversold barrier and rebounded.
This time, we have the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) to consider as the first long-term Resistance, so our Target is just below a potential extension of it at 0.6200.
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Bitcoin below $96K – Miners trigger a sell-offThe price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has dropped more than 3% in the past 24 hours, closing around $96,000 amid aggressive selling by miners. Over 2,000 BTC have been transferred to centralized exchanges since Bitcoin’s recovery to GETTEX:98K , intensifying downward pressure on the market.
This price decline is driven by miners’ efforts to reduce their reserves in response to market instability. At the same time, Bitcoin mining difficulty has increased by 5.6%, signaling new challenges for the industry and adding pressure on the cryptocurrency’s value. Typically, asset transfers to centralized exchanges indicate a readiness to sell, whereas transfers to custodial wallets suggest long-term holding.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has repeatedly dropped below the $100K mark, influenced by uncertain U.S. trade policies and negative macroeconomic signals from the Labor Department report. A brief recovery failed to sustain bullish momentum, leading to large-scale sell-offs and further price declines, keeping altcoins under constant pressure.
As a significant part of institutional Bitcoin demand, miners continue to shape market dynamics. However, over the past seven days, selling activity has slowed as investors anticipate a potential price rebound.
FreshForex analysts forecast that BTCUSD retains the potential for recovery and even new all-time highs, while Standard Chartered suggests Bitcoin could reach $500K by 2028.
USDZAR Analysis: A Buy Setup in FebruaryThe USDZAR daily timeframe for February presents an "open low" structure, indicating a potential BUY SETUP . This structure signifies that the market has maintained a bullish sentiment, starting with low prices early in the month and showing an upward trajectory. Traders should note this trend and align their strategies accordingly, as it suggests strong buyer activity. February’s price action offers opportunities for long positions, supported by additional technical indicators confirming the market’s direction.
A significant confirmation of buyers’ presence in the market came with today’s TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross. The TDI cross, a widely-used momentum indicator, reflects strengthening bullish momentum. This confirmation aligns with the ongoing bullish structure, giving traders confidence in pursuing long positions on USDZAR. Such setups are especially valuable for traders monitoring currency pairs with volatile price movements like USDZAR.
Adding further support to the buy setup is the presence of a clear bullish divergence. This divergence began forming on Friday, January 24th, and continues through the current market low. Divergences between price action and momentum indicators often signal potential reversals or continuation of trends. In this case, the bullish divergence reinforces the likelihood of price moving higher, aligning with the broader market structure.
For precision in trade execution, traders should look for buy entries on lower timeframes. This strategy ensures optimized entry points while minimizing potential drawdowns. Target zones for profit-taking are critical for a structured trade plan. The first take-profit target for USDZAR is set at 18.59211 , providing an initial benchmark for closing partial positions or locking in profits. The second take-profit target, slightly higher at 18.67943 , offers a secondary level for maximizing gains as the bullish trend unfolds.
Proper risk management remains a cornerstone of successful trading. Traders should assess their risk-to-reward ratios carefully, setting stop-loss levels to protect against unexpected market reversals. Managing position sizes relative to account equity is essential for mitigating potential losses while capitalizing on this promising USDZAR buy setup.
XAU/USD (Gold) - H1 Chart - Channel Breakout (12.02.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2835
2nd Support – 2797
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$USDZAR short idea This week's price movements seems to favour bearish momentum from the USDXXX pair, however the outlook remains two sided. With the CPI event and fed speech after NY open, we're bound to see significant changes in the market. Points of interest remains 18.57986, 18.49814, 18.35750 and 18.23590.
GOLD - Price can continue to move up inside rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to trades inside flat, where it at once broke $2745 level, but soon fell back to support area.
Next, price bounced up to the top part of flat and then corrected back to support area, where it some time trades.
After this, Gold exited from support area and soon exited from flat and continued to move up inside rising channel.
In channel, price corrected to support line and then in a short time rose to $2850 level and broke it.
Then price reached resistance line of channel and fell to support area, after which it continued to move up.
So, I think that Gold can make a correction and then continue to move up to $2945 resistance line of channel.
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EURUSD Ahead of Inflation DataYesterday, EURUSD continued its upward movement, reaching 1,0381.
Later today, U.S. inflation data will be released.
This news has a significant impact and will determine the next move for the USD.
If the pair continues to rise, the target will be to break previous highs and reach 1,0568.
Be cautious of misleading price movements and avoid emotional trading!
EURUSD 12 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - CPI, Powell & TariffThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
In my Weekly Analysis, tariffs continue to dominate the narrative, yet market reactions have become the primary focus. The critical question is whether investors have grown accustomed to tariff-related news—leading to muted responses—or if the persistent tariff war rhetoric will trigger renewed market anxiety.
Notably, Powell’s testimony yesterday failed to offer any fresh insights; however, there is hope that today’s session might shed some light on future policy directions. Additionally, the USD’s weakness observed at the close of trading yesterday appears to have been driven more by reports of a territorial swap in Ukraine’s peace deal—and possibly an initial leak of the CPI data—rather than by Powell’s remarks.
Today’s CPI report is expected to be a significant driver of market volatility. Investors are eagerly anticipating softer CPI numbers, which could encourage the Fed to consider not only an earlier rate cut but potentially two cuts this year, contrasting with the current market consensus of just one. While tariffs are clearly contributing to upward inflationary pressures and prompting a cautious stance from the Fed, the immediate volatility is likely to stem from the CPI data. The market will be closely watching whether the tariffs are being employed as a negotiating tactic—or if they signal an intentional escalation towards a trade war.
Markets face a tug-of-war between CPI-driven rate hopes and tariff-induced risks. While CPI may spark a tactical rally if soft, tariffs remain the swing factor – any escalation (e.g., new retaliatory measures) would overshadow short-term data. Position for choppy trading until Trump’s tariff strategy crystallizes.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs turning Bearish.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹At Swing Premium
2️⃣
🔹With yesterday PA, price failed to continue Bearish and created a Bullish i-BOS.
🔹Price reached the 4H supply as anticipated and mitigated the 15m Supply within the 4H to maybe initiate the Bullish INT Structure pullback phase and if the swing is going to continue Bearish there is a high probability to target the Strong INT Low.
🔹The current Bullish i-BOS aligns with the 4H Swing where we have also a high probability that we can target the 15m Strong Swing High.
🔹With the inconsistency of Time frames alignments, a clear direction is difficult to identify which requires a sit back and watch till we have a clear direction.
3️⃣
🔹From an intraday perspective, expectations are set to Bearish to facilitate the Bullish INT Structure pullback.
🔹Today’s CPI, Powell and Tariffs talks will have high volatility that could direct me tomorrow or next week for a clearer direction move.
Bullish bounce for the Cable?GBP/USD is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.2419
1st Support: 1.2389
1st Resistance: 1.2473
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish momemtum to extend?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,873.49
1st Support: 2,839.87
1st Resistance: 2,917.79
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?XAG/USD is rising towards the resistance which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 32.00
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 32.53
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 31.46
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which is a pullback support
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?GBP/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback support and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2413
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.2354
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 1.2524
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 153.24
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 154.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 56.4% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 151.06
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPUSD Possible IdeaDue to the pair consistently breaking lows and respecting highs on the daily timeframe, it was then evident that it is over all bearish. It recently broke the latest low on the daily timeframe, where it preceded to form a rising wedge to induce liquidity on both sides withing the daily range. Price has recently broke out of the wedge to the upside to mitigate a supply area just above it. This then could be the liquidity price could use to fuel its move to the downside to take out liquidity below the wedge as well as liquidity resting beneath our most recent low.
DXY Possible ideaDXY has been bullish for quite some time now. From what we can see, it has been breaking highs with momentum. It has recently retraced back just above an unmitigated demand zone, where lots of liquidity is currently hovering above. It could use this liquidity to fuel its move to the upside after it mitigates this demand area, breaking the latest weak high that awaits a liquidity run.
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0354
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0420
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 778.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0263
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (UPDATE)Gold has been absolutely crazy since market open last night! With a huge 350 PIPS move up on market open, price crashed back down 600 PIPS overnight. This impulse move down is a strong indication the top for Wave 5 could be in.
Time for market structure to form its corrective phase now📉
EURUSD Short term rebound possible.EURUSD is testing its 4hour MA50 after consolidating all day yesterday around the 1.0300 level.
Based on the 4hour MACD, we have a consolidation similar to January 16th-17th, which ended up forming Resistance B.
As we just formed the 2nd Bullish Cross on the 4hour MACD, we expect a similar rise to take place.
Buy and target 1.04375, which is the bottom of Resistance A.
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DOTUSD - Cup and handle filled with green candles tea ?Very simple trade idea ?
my average is around 4.5 and will leave next month probably
for now at very good support (0.236 fib + previous high)
can go more down to test that black trendline for example but at the end the target is 6.5 in a few days/weeks
stop loss depends if btc goes under 95.8
cheers