Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement an could drop from this level to our tke profit.
Entry: 1.0354
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that line sup with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0420
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0263
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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USD (US Dollar)
USDZAR sailing in turbulent Trump tidesLast week has been a rollercoaster for the ZAR after gaping up and touching a high of 19.00 in the early hours of Monday morning following the news of Trumps executive order. The rand however regained its footing as the news got digested which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day MA currently at 18.45. It seems as if an ABC corrective wave has taken place which is indicative of another 5-wave impulse higher for the pair.
The 50-day MA at 18.45 and the current yearly low of 18.30 serve as the critical levels to watch on the pair. A failed break below 18.30 will create a double bottom at this level which will leave the rand stranded ready to be pulled higher towards 19.22.
A break below 18.30 will however allow the rand to pull the pair out of the current upward channel and test the 200-day support at 18.12. This move will invalidate my current idea on the pair.
The main event to watch for the week is the US CPI print for January, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like it did back for the December print. US inflation has been ticking higher since October last year, almost right after the Fed started their cutting cycle and anything other than an inline or lower than expected CPI print will have the USDZAR packing and making its way above 19.00 since it will indicate that the Fed will stay higher for longer.
Gold NEW ATH to $2,912?! (1H UPDATE)4H chart has hit our resistance zone & rejected. But, on the smaller TF we're currently seeing a re-distribution schematic play out on Gold ahead of its sell off which means we MIGHT see 1 more new ATH. Re-distribution schematics normally take place in between Wave 3 high, Wave 4 low & Wave 5 high.
This sell off schematic normally builds up within a 'Flat Correction' channel, which traps in early sellers & late buyers into the market. This is why it's a hard pattern to recognise.
⭕️POI 1: $2,857 - $2,848
⭕️POI 2: $2,826 - $2,817
GBPUSD (2H) - Short-Term ConsolidationFX:GBPUSD
📶 Technical Analysis:
Weekly Chart:
🟡 The price has been in a bearish trend since September 2024, with current levels near a strong support zone around 1.2100.
Daily Chart:
🟢 The bearish trend is confirmed by moving averages (MAs) and the formation of lower lows and lower highs. After testing the weekly support at 1.2100, a correction has occurred.
🟢 The price has double-tested a strong resistance level around 1.2500.
4-Hour Chart:
🟡 After strong bearish momentum at the start of 2025, the market has shifted into a bullish trend, but it is now in a neutral consolidation range between 1.2500 resistance and 1.2380 support.
🟡 There was a fake break of support caused by Trump's tariff policy.
2-Hour Chart:
🟠 A clear neutral formation has emerged, with high volatility since the beginning of February.
🔤 Summary:
🔴 Break above 1.2500: Could signal the start of bullish momentum.
🟢 Break below 1.2380: Could signal a shift to bearish momentum.
🟡 Until then, the price is likely to remain in a neutral zone.
🟡 Fundamental analysis is mandatory to understand the driving factors behind this pair. Watch the market expectations and economic indicators closely.
🟡 I am watching for clear technical formations and signals in the near future, mainly oriented for a short position if a clear opportunity arises.
EURO - Price can bounce up from triangle to $1.0430 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price rose to the resistance area, after which it dropped to support area inside wedge.
Euro turned around and started to grow near support line of wedge and later it reached $1.0390 level and broke it.
Next, price rose to resistance line of wedge and then made a correction movement to $1.0390 level and exited from wedge.
After this, price broke $1.0390 level and made a strong gap, after which it started to grow inside a triangle.
In this pattern, Euro rose to resistance line, some time traded near, and then in a short time fell back to support line.
In my mind, Euro can bounce up from support line to $1.0430, exiting from a triangle and breaking resistance level.
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EURUSD 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 - Weekly Analysis - US CPI/PPI/PowellThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Mixed Labor Market Signals
The February 7 NFP report showed 143K new jobs (below expectations of 170K), signaling potential cooling in the labor market. However, strong wage growth (0.5% MoM, 4.1% YoY) and a 4% unemployment rate (down from 4.1%) suggest lingering inflationary pressures.
Markets may interpret this as a "Goldilocks" scenario: cooling job growth could delay Fed rate hikes, but elevated wage inflation keeps stagflation risks alive.
Tariff Volatility and Trade Uncertainty
Trump’s tariffs (10% on China, delayed 25% on Canada/Mexico) dominate market psychology. While tariffs are a negotiation tool, their sudden implementation and reversal create uncertainty. For example:
Automotive and energy sectors face direct risks due to integrated North American supply chains.
Consumer goods (e.g., electronics, produce) may see price hikes, amplifying inflation fears.
Retaliatory measures from China add to global trade tensions.
Week major news events
Fed’s Powell testifies
ECB Lagarde Speech
US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales
EU GDP
Given the forecasts and the recent NFP report showing slower job growth, market sentiment could be cautious. If the CPI and PPI readings come in higher than expected, it could reinforce concerns about inflation and lead to USD Strength. Investors might seek safe-haven assets.
Conversely, if the CPI and PPI readings are in line with or lower than expectations, it could provide some relief to the markets and support a more positive sentiment which will lead to Weaker USD.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after a volatile week.
🔹Price still looking bearish to target the Weak INT low to target the Weekly unmitigated demand. Ultimately targeting the Swing Weak Low.
🔹Noticing that the Bearish INT Low didn’t pullback to at least the INT Structure EQ (50%) so there is a chance that price could hold the current Weekly Demand to fulfil the i-BOS pullback phase which will require MTF to confirm this scenario.
🔹Expectation is set to Bearish continuation targeting the Weak INT Low and the unmitigated Weekly Demand.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH.
🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase.
🔹Expectations is price to continue Bearish to target the Weak INT Low and hopefully we get a confirmed close which is fulfilling the Weekly target of continuing Bearish.
🔹Notice that if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish.
Economic Events for the Week
EURUSD: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
It feels like EURUSD may continue falling,
following a strong bearish reaction to the underlined
key daily/intraday resistance.
A breakout of a neckline of a double top pattern on a 4H
give a strong bearish confirmation.
Next support - 1.0295
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USDCAD - Is History Repeating Itself?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 USDCAD has been overall bullish , trading within the rising wedge pattern marked in blue.
Today, USDCAD broke above its previous major high (marked in red).
🏹 As it retests this previous high, it will also intersect with the lower blue trendline, which acts as a dynamic support level.
📚 According to my trading style:
As #USDCAD approaches the red zone, I'll be watching for bullish reversal setups—such as a double bottom pattern, a trendline break, and more.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
LTC - Dino coin will make itHey,
I believe we're nearing the bottom for LTC in this cycle, setting up for the next major move higher.
It might take some time to play out, but I expect to see momentum picking up in Q2/Q3.
LTC is a dinosaur token—one that doesn’t get much love anymore—but I still see it reaching $300+ within the next 6 to 12 months.
USD JPY Monthly Prospective Analysis up to 2060 (updated)This is the idea combined with elliott wave theory(I forgot to mention in the previous upload, but, in my chart, the number 2 wave corresponds to the 3 in the elliott and the 3 to the 5. The number 1 wave is the same as the 1 in the elliott). Up to 2027 the trend is down, bounced at around 85 and then going up all the way to reach around 170 (maybe does not reach 200 yen this time, that would be accomplished more than about 50 years later). Hope to live long to see if its correct!
Gold ATH to $2,912?!We are currently seeing a re-distribution schematic play out on Gold ahead of its sell off. Re-distribution schematics normally take place in between Wave 3 high, Wave 4 low & Wave 5 high. This sell off schematic normally builds up within a 'Flat Correction' channel which traps in early sellers and lead buyers. This is why it is a hard pattern to recognise.
GBPUSD on the top of the Bearish Megaphone. Low risk sell entry.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bearish Megaphone structure.
The price got rejected 2 days ago on its top.
A crossing under the Rising Support will be a selling validation much like December 18th.
This break out hit Support A before rebounding.
Stay bearish as long as the Megaphone holds and target 1.2100 (Support A).
Previous chart:
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"Bitcoin Approaching Key Resistance – Breakout or RejectionThis BTC/USD chart shows a descending wedge pattern with a key resistance zone around 99,000. The price is currently approaching the upper trendline of the wedge, with a breakout potential if bullish momentum sustains. Multiple change-of-character (ChOCH) points indicate shifts in structure, with a bullish bias forming.
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance at 99,000 (breakout confirmation needed)
- Support around 97,270 and 95,873
- Potential breakout target above 100,000 if price clears resistance
A breakout above 99,000 with strong volume could signal further upside, while rejection at this level might lead to a retest of lower support zones.
HelenP. I Euro will correct to support level and then start growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some time ago, the price rose close to the resistance level but then made a small correction. After that, it quickly climbed to the resistance level again. The Euro broke this level, which coincided with the resistance zone, and traded near it for some time before breaking it once more and starting to decline. In a short time, the price dropped to 1.0380 and then rebounded back to the resistance level, after which it reversed and continued to decline. Soon, the price reached the support level, which coincided with the support zone, broke it, and made a strong gap down, falling to the trend line. Then, the Euro started to move up within a pennant pattern, where the trend line acted as a support. Soon, the Euro reached the support level and broke it once again, then made a retest and continued moving higher. Later, it climbed to the resistance line of the pennant pattern, turned around, and quickly fell to the support level before resuming its upward movement. Currently, the price is trading near the trend line, and I expect EURUSD, after a break out of the pennant, to correct to the support level. After that, it may reverse and start rising toward the resistance level. In this scenario, my target is set at 1.0465 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
USDCAD at a crucial support.USDCAD - Intraday
The selloff has posted an exhaustion count on the intraday chart.
We expect a reversal in this move.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 1.4350 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 1.4425.
We look to Buy at 1.4300 (stop at 1.4260)
Our profit targets will be 1.4400 and 1.4425
Resistance: 1.4350 / 1.4400 / 1.4425
Support: 1.4300 / 1.4275 / 1.4250
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Gold can reach resistance line again and then start to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price started to drop from the resistance line and quickly declined to the 2625 support level, aligning with the buyer zone before briefly dipping below it. After that, the price reversed and began to climb within an upward channel, eventually reaching 2625 again and breaking through both this level and the resistance line. However, Gold soon pulled back and consolidated within the buyer zone for a while. It then slightly corrected below this area before resuming its upward movement, ultimately breaking through the 2625 level. After a retest of the support level, Gold trended higher along the channel’s support line for an extended period before bouncing up to 2785, which aligned with a support area, followed by a minor pullback. Gold then dropped to the channel’s support line before making a strong impulse move toward the resistance line, breaking the 2785 level and successfully retesting it. Recently, the price has undergone a correction but continues to push higher. Based on this structure, I anticipate that Gold will rise toward the resistance line once again before reversing and heading down toward the channel’s support line. Given this scenario, my target is set at 2815, which aligns with the channel’s support. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
AUDUSD Has it found Support?The AUDUSD pair gave us an excellent sell signal on our September 18 2024 bearish call (see chart below), which went straight to the 0.63750 Target within the time-frame we expected:
This time we are looking at a potential Support rebound as the price appears to have made a bottom on the 2-year Channel Down Lower Lows trend-line. Based on the upcoming 1W MACD Bullish Cross and the 1D RSI symmetrical positioning, we might be starting a rally similar to October 31 2023 during the last Lower Low.
This rose by +3.82% before pulling back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again, so our short-term Target is 0.63500. Beyond that, we need to observe whether the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line holds or not, in order to engage in buying break-outs.
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Golden Pocket March Rally? Downside Gap Fill by 2/28? $SPYA break of the current High would invite a straight shot to the 1.61 Golden Pocket Above. Anything Below leaves room for Election Rally Gap Fill. Keep an eye on the fib. Don't try to be a HERO inside of the box. Wedge forming. March may lead to a large decline. Be wary.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?The Silver (XAG/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 31.73
1st Support: 31.20
1st Resistance: 32.55
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rebound?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 71.52
1st Support: 69.32
1st Resistance: 73.87
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.