EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures.
Global Impact:
International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics.
Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment:
Strong NFP Data:
A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures.
Weak NFP Data:
A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term.
This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS.
🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low.
🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
