USD/JPY(20250424)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The United States hit a 16-month low in April. The total number of new home sales in the United States in March was an annualized to a new high since September 2024.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
142.82
Support and resistance levels:
144.93
144.14
143.63
142.01
141.50
140.71
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.63, consider buying, the first target price is 144.14
If the price breaks through 142.82, consider selling, the first target price is 142.01
USD (US Dollar)
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1278
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1149
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1428
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDTRY: 6.8 | SHORT 5k Pips | LONG 38k Pipsbuilding a SHORT position for the SHAKEDOWN
and BASE BUILDING towards 10.0 levels
-
#LongShort
===
Fundamentals:
it takes 20years to settle debt or unfinished obligations by a company country and aliens...
til then.. its currency be it fiat land or spirit is devalued as form of compensation
in layman; a person heavily in debt lacks BARGAINING POWER over MAJOR folks
-
see Germany's recovery
Haven play: Long yen back in focusAmid growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. equities and the US dollar, investors could be returning to a traditional defensive strategy: going long on the Japanese yen.
While some analysts believe the recent yen rally is not yet overstretched, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that Japan’s central bank is likely to push back the timing of further interest rate hikes, a factor that could limit the yen's potential to strengthen further. As such, we are looking at the support level of 140.00 and the bearish-yen sentiment seen today, and the potential resistance at 144.80.
Up next: a scheduled meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent later this week.
[USD\RUB] Enter email subjectHi Ivan, good day again.
I’ve had a look at your idea regarding the ruble. I'm afraid you still didn’t quite catch my sense of humor.
And unfortunately, you haven’t fully absorbed the program either.
But hey—you’re doing well! Your efforts show. And your ideas aren't the worst ones I’ve seen on LLC "Trading View". I can say that for sure. I've seen some crazy forecasts there.
You’ve already used a kind of Elliott approach and added RSI. I’m glad you picked that up quickly.
Now, back to the critique - there’s a lack of innovation, some fresh perspective, and generally, a bit more realism is needed.
I get that on TW everyone copies each other. But you need to develop new methods and theory, which means you need to form a clearer vision.
Ivan, drop by my office. I’ll help you, maybe we can brainstorm together.
I sketched a rough draft of an idea. I want to tell you about it-don’t get scared, just take a look at the attachment.
Subject: "Forming Long-Term Forecasts on Global Timeframes Using Transparent Overlay Method."
Check out the screenshots - you’ll see that by overlaying semi-transparent bars at the 1M level, we can estimate the chart’s behavior on 3M, 6M, and 12M timeframes.
It helps assess the realism of the forecast and the fluctuation levels within a given range.
Like, surely you understand that we’re unlikely to see seven consecutive red 3M candles at this stage. When building long-term forecasts, that sort of thing matters—even if no one seems to care.
Anyway, we’ll talk about it in person. Call me if anything.
Also—do you by any chance know how Oleg’s doing? I haven’t heard from him in a while. Has he at least figured out how to switch to 3M, 6M, and yearly candles yet?
Come together, both of you. I’ll go over everything again.
By the way, could you help me reinstall Outlook? For some reason all my settings vanished, the shortcut’s gone, and I can’t find any contacts. Or maybe bring over a tech person - maybe that’s why I’m not getting any emails.
Best regards,
Riva Trick
Heading into Fibonacci confluence?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as and overlap support.
Pivot: 65.19
1st Support: 61.85
1st Resistance: 67.84
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the price reverse from here?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.851.36
1st Support: 1,683.61
1st Resistance: 1,945.78
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?USD/ZAR is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 18.42633
1st Support: 18.12402
1st Resistance: 18.77859
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/MXN Continues to Fall Below the 20 Pesos per Dollar LevelOver the past five trading sessions, the USD/MXN pair has declined by more than 2%, as the Mexican peso continues to gain ground against the U.S. dollar. This bullish trend in the peso is partly driven by the ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar, as reflected in the DXY index, which has fallen to 99 points, its lowest level in the past year.
The dollar’s weakness stems from the growing political and economic uncertainty generated by the global trade war, triggering a broad wave of dollar selling as capital exits the U.S. If this trend continues, the Mexican peso could maintain its bullish momentum in the short term.
Lateral Range Breakout
Since November 2024, USD/MXN had been trading within a sideways range, with resistance at 20.94 pesos per dollar and support at 20.00. In recent sessions, bearish pressure broke through this support, and as selling momentum builds, this could mark the start of a more meaningful downtrend.
MACD
The MACD histogram remains below the neutral zero line, indicating strong bearish momentum based on recent moving average trends. If the histogram continues to show deeper negative values, selling pressure could intensify further in the short term.
RSI
Currently, lower lows in price and higher lows in the RSI suggest the presence of a bullish divergence—an imbalance in recent selling momentum. This could create an opportunity for short-term bullish corrections to emerge.
Key Levels to Watch:
20.33 pesos per dollar: A key resistance level, aligned with the 100-period moving average. A return to this area could reactivate the previous range.
20.00 pesos per dollar: Another important resistance, now acting as a potential retest zone after previously serving as support. This could be a target for short-term pullbacks.
19.33 pesos per dollar: A significant support level, aligned with the neutral zone from September 2024. A move toward this level could reinforce the consolidation of a consistent bearish trend in upcoming sessions.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 141.600 zone, USDJPY is trading in downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 141.600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish drop?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,419.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,458.51
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,355.45
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.9% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 140.98
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 140.24
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 142.41
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8114
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8067
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8241
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1490
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1559
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.1399
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
Has the Gold Rush Only Just Begun? A Bitcoin StoryIt is starting to look like we have entered a new trend on gold. Breaking out of the bullish trend, into a steeper one. The chart reminds me of the 1970's. Not the same but similar.
1970's US goes off the gold standard, money is now debt, USD becomes worthless when compared to gold (the time tested store of value that it is, of course)
Money printer go brrrr...
Now 2019. COVID, shut down the world, DWARF ALL OTHER LIQUIDITY INJECTION EVENTS COMBINED! I'm sensing a pattern.
It has amazed me at what we have got away with so far. Considering the magnitude of what Covid and the following response was. I honestly thought it would be much worse, but I don't think we have seen the full impact yet. I think it may take a decade or more before we see the extent of the fallout. Heck, or this could just be another step in the wrong direction that just continues us down the road of financial repression. Devaluing our currencies until they look closer to the yen while a majority of the population ie: the working class has no clue. Populism will continue to rise as people try to find the common enemy to blame/ hate because of their pent up rage, due things completely out of their control. The worst part is that they don't even know the real reason why this is happening.
Printing money (debt creation) is robbing from the future. Governments around the world have been stealing for decades. I only see one path ahead, and it's only going to get worse. The pot has been heating up, we are getting close to the boiling point. People are starting to realize how hot its getting.
I see, in the not to distant future, the possibility of a melt up in nominal terms. Time will tell, we will see how well the world governments handle this. Maybe they can manage this better than I expect. But if they cannot and the pace of the bull markets pick up into a parabolic trend due to the miss-management of debt. What goes up must come down. Asset bubbles will form and burst, as they do.
We are in a diabolical game of musical chairs.
All paths lead to Bitcoin, a redistribution of wealth to those willing to learn.
DXY Bearish Pennant Breakdown | More Downside Ahead?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken down from a well-defined bearish pennant pattern on the 4H chart, signaling continuation of the prevailing downtrend.
🔹 Technical Setup:
Pattern: Bearish Pennant
Breakdown Level: Below 99.00
Target: ~94.50 based on pennant pole projection
Confirmation: Clear follow-through after breakdown, low volume consolidation
🔹 Fundamentals:
Weak U.S. economic data and dovish Fed expectations continue to weigh on the dollar.
Rising gold and commodity prices further support DXY downside.
📌 Outlook: As long as DXY trades below 99.00 resistance, bearish momentum is likely to extend toward the 94.50 target zone.
NOTE: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Always do your own research.