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USD (US Dollar)

USDJPY POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on USDJPY The price broke out of a strong intraday resistance zone, although the Trend remains bullish and the set Trendline keeps the price on the higher part of the market. The price is developing, and I am waiting for a retest of the previously broken resistance and used as support before I look for a LONG trade. A BUY opportunity is at the top above the weekly Low at 1.04480. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Trade Responsibly! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by Adefxc
INRUSD - Indian Rupee Collapse UPDATEMy initial post on INRUSD was back on Sept 2022 more than 2 years ago. My update is more of the same going forward. INR will continue to collapse despite its nominal economic growth. When the economy is very small relative to its population, the growth rate doesn't matter as if a major economy like the US has similar growth. It's like comparing apples to oranges. But I certainly understand how people can be misled. That's why I am trying to explain it to you here today.
Short
by RealMacro
EURUSD: Still bearish long term. Don't buy a falling knife.EURUSD remains heavily bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.500, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 21.396) as the 1 month Channel Down remains intact. The current 4H rebound is the bullish wave of the Channel and technically once the 4H MA50 is hit, it will turn into a bearish opportunity again. We are waiting for that signal to sell towards the bottom of the Channel (TP = 1.0200). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
The Golden Journey: Historic Milestones and a Glimpse into 2025Gold Price Analysis: A Historical Overview and Future Outlook Gold has always played a crucial role as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty. Over the years, its price movements have been shaped by various global events. Let’s take a step-by-step look at the key historical moments and their implications for the future. [ b]Historical Highlights:- March 2008: Financial Crisis Escalation Gold prices surpassed $1,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by the Global Financial Crisis. Key Factors: - The collapse of Bear Stearns fueled fears of systemic financial instability. - Aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts weakened the U.S. dollar, increasing gold’s appeal. Impact: Gold surged as a safe-haven asset during one of the most critical financial crises of the modern era. October 2008: Global Financial Crisis Peak Gold prices dropped to $681 per ounce initially due to forced liquidation but rebounded later, stabilizing around $730-$800 per ounce. Key Factors: - Forced selling to meet margin calls during the crisis. - Central banks introduced aggressive interventions, including interest rate cuts, to stabilize the economy. Impact: Despite short-term declines, gold regained its safe-haven status as market uncertainty persisted. Profits and Losses of New York Stock Exchange Broker-Dealers 2000 to 2008: Cost of the 2008 Financial Crisis : August 2011: All-Time High Amid Global Economic Uncertainty Gold reached a record high of $1,917 per ounce amid the U.S and Eurozone debt crisis and concerns about the U.S. economy. Key Factors: - Investors were concerned about the U.S. economy after the S&P downgrade of U.S. credit from AAA to AA+ earlier in August. - The 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis was one of a series of recurrent debates over increasing the total size of the U.S. national debt. - Safe-haven demand surged as central banks maintained low interest rates. Impact: This period underscored gold's reliability during global economic turmoil. November 2015: Multi-Year Low Gold prices dropped to $1,050 per ounce, the lowest since 2010. Key Factors: - Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike reduced gold’s appeal. - Low inflation diminished its role as a hedge. Impact: The decline highlighted gold’s sensitivity to monetary policy and inflation expectations. August 2020: Record High During COVID-19 Gold hit an all-time high of $2,075 per ounce, driven by the global economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Key Factors: - Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus from central banks and governments. - Weak U.S. dollar and negative bond yields boosted demand. Impact: Gold cemented its status as a hedge against both inflation and economic uncertainty. September 2022: Aggressive Rate Hikes Gold dropped to around $1,615 per ounce as the U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. Key Factors: - Rising bond yields and a strong U.S. dollar reduced gold’s appeal. - Geopolitical Uncertainty. mpact: This period reflected the inverse relationship between gold and rising interest rates. October 2024: Record Peak Gold surged to a new all-time high of $2,790 per ounce due to heightened geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts. Key Factors: - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. - Central banks’ easing policies and inflation fears supported the rally. Impact: This continued gold’s bullish momentum, driven by its safe-haven demand. Future Outlook for Gold in 2025 Key Expectations: 1. Bullish Momentum to Continue: - Gold is likely to remain on an upward trajectory, potentially breaking the $3,000 per ounce barrier. - Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns will continue to drive demand. 2. Consolidation and Corrections: - Gold may face short-term corrections, with support levels at $2,600-$2,500, before resuming its bullish trend. 3. Critical Drivers: - Geopolitical Tensions: Persistent global conflicts will boost gold’s safe-haven appeal. - Monetary Policy: Central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve, will influence gold prices. A pause or reversal in rate hikes will support bullish momentum. - Inflation Hedge: Rising inflation expectations will sustain demand for gold as a store of value. Key Levels to Watch: - Resistance Levels: $2,800, $3,000, and beyond. - Support Levels: $2,600, $2,500, and $2,300. Summary: Gold has consistently demonstrated its value as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. With its recent surge in October 2024 and the ongoing macroeconomic conditions, the outlook for 2025 suggests further bullish potential. However, investors should be prepared for short-term corrections before the continuation of its long-term upward trend. Gold's remarkable performance over various timeframes highlights its strength: - In 2024 alone, gold rose by 27.25%, marking a stellar annual performance. - Over the past 5 years, gold has gained an impressive 79.25%, showcasing sustained upward momentum. - Over the past 10 years, gold has soared by 121.00%, reflecting its resilience and importance as a long-term asset. Disclaimer: The insights and expectations shared in this analysis are based on my personal experience and deep understanding of the market. While these projections are grounded in my expertise, it is important to exercise caution and perform your own research before making any investment decisions. Remember, the market carries inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SroshMayi
7
NZDUSD - The uptrend of the dollar is over?!The NZDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that range with appropriate risk reward. A valid break of the support area will provide us with the continuation of the downward path of this currency pair. At the beginning of 2025, the US dollar has continued its upward trajectory, solidifying its position as one of the leading global currencies. After delivering a strong performance in 2023 and 2024, the dollar has now risen by more than 1% against the euro and the British pound, outpacing other major currencies. From an economic news perspective, recent reports have had little impact on the market. While data on jobless claims, affected by holiday factors, were assessed positively, reports such as construction spending and manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. However, these statistics failed to create significant market movement, with US Treasury yields seeing only a slight uptick. According to data published by S&P Global, the US manufacturing PMI for December 2024 stood at 49.4, a slight decline from 49.7 in November. This figure remains below the 50-point threshold, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity. Nonetheless, there has been a slight recovery from the mid-month figure of 48.3. Manufacturing output in November declined for the fourth consecutive month, hitting its lowest level in 18 months. Additionally, new orders continued to fall, though at a slower pace compared to previous months. However, export orders experienced a steeper decline, primarily driven by economic weakness in Europe and Australia. In the employment sector, there has been modest yet positive growth for the second consecutive month, reflecting manufacturers’ efforts to retain their workforce. Input cost inflation has reached its highest level since August 2024, largely due to concerns over trade tariffs and potential protectionist policies. Approximately 25% of firms attributed their increased purchases to tariff threats, highlighting concerns over the inflationary effects of such policies. Despite current challenges, manufacturers are increasingly optimistic about the future. This optimism, which has reached its highest level in two and a half years, stems from reduced uncertainties following the elections and positive expectations of stronger economic growth and supportive government policies in 2025. However, the gap between current production levels and future expectations has reached its widest point in a decade, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. The main driver behind the strength of the US dollar is capital inflows. While the US economy appears robust, this alone does not explain the dollar’s growth. A confluence of positive factors has made US assets attractive, with the country’s stock markets outperforming other global markets. Currently, a significant portion of global capital formation is concentrated in the US dollar and its markets. Nevertheless, risks such as rising tariffs or restrictive fiscal policies could alter the dollar’s trajectory. For now, the market shows little concern about the Republican-led Congress, and the US dollar continues to assert its dominance in global markets. Donald Trump, the US President-elect, recently tweeted that tariffs have brought immense wealth to the country and that he plans to continue these policies after assuming office on January 20. Trump also referenced border issues, calling Joe Biden the “worst president in US history.” The chief asset strategist at HSBC Bank highlighted the hawkish messages from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting as a cause for concern. January is expected to be highly volatile, but these fluctuations could present intriguing investment opportunities.
Short
by Ali_PSND
DXY: HTF Analysis (72D)What’s Happening Now on the High-Timeframe? The DXY measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. On the 72-day chart, we’re seeing signs of a potential shift, but the overall trend is still in downtrend territory. Keep an eye on how the price reacts to these levels and stay ready to adjust your strategy! RESISTANCE (Areas where price struggles to rise above): If Resistance holds firm, Price Action could reach Support I (see below) If Resistance is strong, Price Action could short to Support II (see below) 118.53 (Sell Limit Order II): the 2nd resistance level for sellers 117.09 (Supply Zone): This is a hard ceiling for now, far above the current price. 113.50 (Sell Limit Order I): the 1st resistance level for sellers 110.29 (Resistance) If the price keeps getting stuck here, it might fall back down. SUPPORT (Areas where price might stop falling): 100.4180 (Support I): The first major safety net if the price drops. 95.8590: A deeper support that could attract buyers. 93.96 (Support II): The second major safety net if the price drops. 89.9269: A historical level where prices have bounced in the past. OSCILLATORS (Measure speed or momentum of price) Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 81.36, it suggests the price is overbought, meaning it’s been rising too fast and might slow down. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): At 134.004, it’s signaling a potential SELL since the price might drop soon. Momentum: Shows a weak SELL signal, suggesting the upward speed is losing steam. MACD: Shows a small BUY signal, meaning there’s still some upward energy left. MOVING AVERAGES (Track average price over time) Most moving averages (10-day, 20-day, etc.) show a BUY, meaning the price has been above its averages and is in an uptrend for now. Hull Moving Average: Shows a SELL signal, hinting at potential short-term weakness. KEY TAKEAWAYS The Good News (for buyers): The moving averages suggest that DXY is still in an upward move on shorter timeframes, with prices above key averages. The Bad News (for sellers): Oscillators like the RSI and Momentum show that the current upward push might be losing strength. The market might correct (fall) soon. If the price struggles to break 110.2990, it might fall back to 100.4180. A breakthrough above 112.5000 could lead to a move toward the 118.5326 zone. Even though we’re seeing some upward action now, the bigger trend is still downward. A reversal would need sustained movement above major resistance. If price falls: Look for potential rebounds around 100.4180 or 95.8590. If price rises: Be cautious as it approaches 112.5000, where sellers might come back in. Right now, DXY is facing challenges near 110.3990. If it can’t push higher, it’s likely to fall back to lower levels. Moving averages suggest strength, but oscillators are hinting at exhaustion. This mix of signals means you should be cautious and wait for clear moves.
ICEUS:DXY
by ProfessorCEWard
Apparently, bright days are ahead of DXYDXY has underwent a reversal: 1- A clean inverted head and shoulders 2- A dropping wedge break high (Which is a reversal at the end of the bearish move) 3- Break and retest of the inverted head and shoulders and the wedge simultaneously 4- Ichimoku cloud broken high as well, indicating the shifting trend bias Expect the target area as marked on the chart either by the end of this year or whenever FED announces rate cuts. Best of luck and happy trading!
TVC:DXYLong
by Uzi-Trades-Forex
2
USDT.D Update. USDT dominance (USDT.D) appears to form a descending triangle or wedge pattern, with two converging trendlines indicating a potential breakdown. The upper trendline is descending, indicating consecutive lower highs. The lower trendline is relatively flat, but rising slightly. USDT.D is approaching the lower trendline, indicating potential support. The path drawn indicates a potential breakdown below the lower trendline. Downward continuation is anticipated in the orange zone (3.40%–3.10%). Resistance: ~4.20% Support: ~3.90% and orange zone around 3.40%–3.10% If USDT dominance falls, it usually suggests that traders move capital from stablecoins (USDT) to riskier assets like Bitcoin or altcoins, indicating a potential bullish sentiment in the broader crypto market. Let me know if you’d like further assistance or adjustments! DYOR. NFA
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by CryptoSanders9563
USD/MXN: Testing Key Resistance Zone at 20.80Chart Analysis: The USD/MXN pair has approached the critical resistance level at 20.80, which has been a notable ceiling for price action in the past. The bullish momentum is evident, but further confirmation is required for a potential breakout. 1️⃣ Resistance Test: The 20.80 level has acted as a strong resistance historically. A breakout above this zone could pave the way for further gains toward the 21.00 psychological level. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 20.25, providing immediate dynamic support for the short-term trend. 200-day SMA (red): At 18.74, reinforcing the broader bullish outlook with price trading significantly above it. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 60.50, edging toward overbought territory but still indicating room for further upside. MACD: Positive and rising, supporting the bullish momentum with no clear signs of divergence. What to Watch: A confirmed daily close above 20.80 could signal the continuation of the uptrend, targeting 21.00–21.20 as the next resistance zone. Conversely, failure to break above 20.80 could result in a pullback toward the 20.25–20.00 support zone, aligning with the 50-day SMA. USD/MXN remains bullish, with price action focused on a critical resistance zone. Traders should watch for confirmation of a breakout or a potential rejection. -MW
by FOREXcom
AUDUSD to continue in the downward move?AUDUSD - 24h expiry Broken out of the channel formation to the downside. Trades at the lowest level in 26-months. Buying posted in Asia. Bespoke resistance is located at 0.6246. The previous swing high is located at 0.6246. We look to Sell at 0.6246 (stop at 0.6276) Our profit targets will be 0.6166 and 0.6146 Resistance: 0.6246 / 0.6271 / 0.6275 Support: 0.6179 / 0.6150 / 0.6130 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
2025 Outlook : DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, has shown notable strength in the last quarter of 2024. This trend is influenced by several key factors: 1) Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Concerns The Federal Reserve's renewed cautious approach to interest rate cuts has been pivotal in supporting the dollar's value. Concerns about inflation, potentially exacerbated by anticipated fiscal policies under President Donald Trump's administration, further contribute to this cautious monetary approach. The Fed's reluctance to reduce rates aggressively may continue to bolster the DXY. 2) Economic Performance and Trade Policies The U.S. economy's robust performance, coupled with expectations of new tariffs and tax reforms under the Trump administration, is anticipated to sustain the dollar's strength. However, these policies may lead to increased inflationary pressures, influencing the Fed's monetary decisions and, consequently, the DXY's trajectory. 3) Global Economic Comparisons Comparatively weaker economic growth in regions like Europe and Japan, where central banks maintain dovish policies, enhances the dollar's appeal. This divergence in economic performance and monetary policy stances contributes to the DXY's bullish outlook. Projections for the DXY in 2025 may vary. A rise to around the 115 level (2022 high), driven by the factors mentioned above, seems very likely. Additionally, based on the Fibonacci Extension, the DXY could possibly reach a high of 124.50 in the long-term. However, fluctuations are anticipated at those historic high levels, with some significant declines. While the current outlook for the DXY appears bullish, it's essential to consider potential risks, including: - Trade Policies: The implementation of new tariffs could introduce uncertainties affecting the dollar's value. - Global Economic Conditions: Improvements in other economies or shifts in their monetary policies could influence the DXY's trajectory. - Domestic Economic Indicators: Factors such as the U.S. budget deficit and overall economic health will play significant roles in shaping the dollar's strength.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
4
USDCAD: political crisis and tariff crisis in Canada!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying position. The political crisis surrounding Justin Trudeau is deepening, with an increasing number of Liberal Party members publicly calling for the Canadian Prime Minister to step down and allow a new leader to take charge before the 2025 elections. Chad Collins, a Member of Parliament from Ontario, stated that nearly 50 elected Liberals are part of a growing group advocating for Trudeau’s resignation. Other Liberal opponents have reported similar numbers, representing approximately one-third of the 153 Liberal MPs in the House of Commons. The resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau’s influential Finance Minister and longtime deputy, has been a significant blow to the Prime Minister. Collins remarked that this resignation has caused irreparable harm to Trudeau. Freeland explained that she decided to resign after being informed of a reassignment within the cabinet. She mentioned that Trudeau informed her of the decision only three days before an important speech intended to update the nation on its financial and economic status. Criticizing Trudeau’s leadership, Collins said, “I don’t know who is advising him, but I can guess. This advice is far from effective. Ultimately, he is responsible for his decisions, and we are now witnessing consequences that many consider to be a clear demonstration of poor judgment.” Trudeau, now 52, has been under mounting pressure to resign for months. In June, the Liberals lost a by-election in a Toronto district they had held for decades. Similarly, they lost another seat in Montreal in September. However, Freeland’s resignation, amid economic threats posed by Trump’s incoming administration, has turned discontent into a full-blown crisis for Trudeau. The Prime Minister has canceled all of his usual year-end television interviews. Collins warned that more Liberals would exit politics if Trudeau insists on staying in power. Meanwhile, Ian de Verteuil, an equity strategist at CIBC Capital Markets, discussed Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Canada in an interview with Bloomberg. He argued that Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports on his first day in office could hurt American consumers and is unlikely to proceed without major revisions. De Verteuil emphasized that Trump should be taken seriously, though not always literally. He added that Trump’s slogan, “Make America Great Again,” would be put to the test if a 25% tariff were imposed on Mexican and Canadian goods. Such tariffs could harm American consumers and are unlikely to be implemented. He further noted that tariffs are unlikely to target fossil fuels or auto parts from Canada, given the U.S. economy’s heavy reliance on these imports. However, companies exporting consumer goods such as clothing and vehicles to the U.S. are at greater risk. De Verteuil also highlighted that Mexican companies exporting goods to the U.S. would face more significant impacts, as Trump’s border concerns primarily focus on America’s southern neighbor. In conclusion, he stated that Canada remains a vital trade partner for the U.S., and major challenges for Canada in 2025 are highly improbable.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Potential bearish drop off pullback resistance?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support. Pivot: 0.5616 1st Support: 0.5587 1st Resistance: 0.5635 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
2
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.6200 1st Support: 0.6181 1st Resistance: 0.6232 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
2