EURUSD 12 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - CPI, Powell & TariffThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
In my Weekly Analysis, tariffs continue to dominate the narrative, yet market reactions have become the primary focus. The critical question is whether investors have grown accustomed to tariff-related news—leading to muted responses—or if the persistent tariff war rhetoric will trigger renewed market anxiety.
Notably, Powell’s testimony yesterday failed to offer any fresh insights; however, there is hope that today’s session might shed some light on future policy directions. Additionally, the USD’s weakness observed at the close of trading yesterday appears to have been driven more by reports of a territorial swap in Ukraine’s peace deal—and possibly an initial leak of the CPI data—rather than by Powell’s remarks.
Today’s CPI report is expected to be a significant driver of market volatility. Investors are eagerly anticipating softer CPI numbers, which could encourage the Fed to consider not only an earlier rate cut but potentially two cuts this year, contrasting with the current market consensus of just one. While tariffs are clearly contributing to upward inflationary pressures and prompting a cautious stance from the Fed, the immediate volatility is likely to stem from the CPI data. The market will be closely watching whether the tariffs are being employed as a negotiating tactic—or if they signal an intentional escalation towards a trade war.
Markets face a tug-of-war between CPI-driven rate hopes and tariff-induced risks. While CPI may spark a tactical rally if soft, tariffs remain the swing factor – any escalation (e.g., new retaliatory measures) would overshadow short-term data. Position for choppy trading until Trump’s tariff strategy crystallizes.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs turning Bearish.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹At Swing Premium
2️⃣
🔹With yesterday PA, price failed to continue Bearish and created a Bullish i-BOS.
🔹Price reached the 4H supply as anticipated and mitigated the 15m Supply within the 4H to maybe initiate the Bullish INT Structure pullback phase and if the swing is going to continue Bearish there is a high probability to target the Strong INT Low.
🔹The current Bullish i-BOS aligns with the 4H Swing where we have also a high probability that we can target the 15m Strong Swing High.
🔹With the inconsistency of Time frames alignments, a clear direction is difficult to identify which requires a sit back and watch till we have a clear direction.
3️⃣
🔹From an intraday perspective, expectations are set to Bearish to facilitate the Bullish INT Structure pullback.
🔹Today’s CPI, Powell and Tariffs talks will have high volatility that could direct me tomorrow or next week for a clearer direction move.
