EUR/USD DAILY PLAN – BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION OR FAKEOUT TRAP?EUR/USD DAILY PLAN – BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION OR FAKEOUT TRAP?
🧠 Macro Overview
This week’s trading landscape is influenced by both European and U.S. developments:
EU Side: There are no major macroeconomic releases ahead, but expectations are growing that the ECB may adopt a more dovish tone in upcoming meetings. If inflation continues to cool, the euro may face downside pressure.
U.S. Side: Last week’s CPI and PPI data showed signs of cooling inflation, yet not enough for the Fed to shift gears. The U.S. dollar remains supported by the prospect of “higher for longer” interest rates.
Global Sentiment: Ongoing U.S.–China tensions and trade policy updates in Europe are keeping risk appetite cautious. The EUR/USD pair is testing a key zone and may break out of the descending channel soon — or reject hard if buyers fail to hold.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1 Chart)
EUR/USD bounced strongly from the 1.1160 – 1.1180 demand zone and is now testing the key resistance at 1.1237 — a confluence of descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the 1H chart.
A clean breakout above and sustained hold of 1.1237 could pave the way toward higher resistance levels at 1.1270 and 1.1325.
However, if the pair gets rejected at 1.1237, it may fall back to test the lower support at 1.1160 – 1.1180, possibly forming a range before a larger move.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
🔺 Resistance Levels:
1.1237 → Key confluence zone (EMA200 + trendline)
1.1270 → Previous swing high
1.1302 – 1.1325 → Upper resistance zone with Fibo confluence
🔻 Support Levels:
1.1180 → Immediate demand area
1.1160 → Critical trendline support
A break below 1.1160 could trigger stronger bearish momentum
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1. Bullish Breakout Above 1.1237
🔹 Entry: 1.1240 – 1.1250
🔹 SL: 1.1210
🔹 TP: 1.1270 → 1.1302 → 1.1325
2. Bearish Rejection at 1.1237
🔻 Entry: 1.1230 – 1.1225
🔻 SL: 1.1255
🔻 TP: 1.1180 → 1.1160
3. Buy-the-Dip at Key Support
🔹 Entry: 1.1165 – 1.1170
🔹 SL: 1.1135
🔹 TP: 1.1200 → 1.1230
⚠️ Key Notes:
Avoid entering trades during chop between 1.1215 – 1.1237 unless breakout confirmation appears.
Be cautious of liquidity grabs during London and NY session opens.
Stick to tight risk management as market remains uncertain and range-bound.
📌 Conclusion:
EUR/USD is at a decision point. Whether bulls take control or sellers defend key resistance will determine short-term trend direction. Trade the breakout or the reaction — not the prediction.
