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USD/CAD

USDCAD finds initial support, deeper down move eyedUSDCAD fell after completing a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, as expected. Prices are now digesting above support-turned-resistance anchored at 1.3154. Negative RSI divergence points at ebbing bearish momentum, but that need not necessarily translate to reversal. Rather, it may simply flag a consolidative pause before the down move is reasserted. The H&S pattern implies a measured-move objective near the 1.30 figure, which looks likely to bring prices within striking distance of major support dating back to mid-2021 (former resistance zone, rising trend line). Time will tell whether this region will mark the place of longer-term uptrend resumption or reversal.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
2
USDCAD pullback brewing ahead?USDCAD looks like it may be gearing up for a pullback from resistance below 1.39. The rally from mid-August appears to have run out of momentum after testing an inflection zone that has acted as both support and resistance since May 2017. Negative RSI divergence highlights ebbing bullish vigor. A pullback from here sees initial supports at the 1.36 and 1.35 figures. A break below the latter threshold may open the door for a slide to test resistance-turned-support at 1.3224.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
USD/CAad- Strong Signals, still a nail biterI did a paper trade experiment with this USDCAD movement. Earlier in the day I entered into a real time forex trade at slightly lower than 1.2938 and 30+ pips later, well into the afternoon , so from 5:30-6am- 2pm this currency mover up and down between 60-70 pips. Keys triggers I was looking for. Notice the wide Bollinger bandwidth, the bands open up for the 1 day moving volume average, this is a signal that movement will expand in either direction but the MACD chart signals upward. I was watching a 15 min chart and I didn't have the patience today to hold long so I pulled out and made a quarter show up. Better than nothing. But, my trade was to limit at 1.2954 and I would be plus that amount with a margin of 20$ and be in the green plus my trade. You can watch the major moving averages/volume trends but if you aren't sure, the obvious signals are reassuring. Even though I still cringe looking at a 15 min 30 min moving volume. That is obnoxious but it's apart of what this market does. It's all very interesting. I just wanted to share, that there is a slight upside and taking a look at past performances helps, like the close and open, and what volume was trading. I like longs so shorting might stress me out a bit.
Short
by m3ggriff
USDCAD short entry with Harmonic Pattern and Mkt Structure trackIn graphs of 4hrs we can see the drawing of a new minimum which leads me to think of a discount to continue falling, in minor temporalities the price has been breaking structure and has been positioned bullish, this entry is the confluence between a Bullish Ob and a Harmonic bat pattern. If it breaks down, it is important to keep an eye on the bottom green square. Profit 2 can be projected even much higher. Rsi below the yellow line can be taken as confluence. Invalidity area below 1.24795
Long
by Smart_Trading_Ipda
USD/CAD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL PATTERN ANALYSIS|MUST READUSD/CAD rebounds from two-week low, inches back closer to mid-1.2600s amid stronger USD USD/CAD reversed an intraday dip to sub-1.2600 levels, or over a two-week low. Resurgent USD demand turned out to be a key factor that extended some support. Steady oil prices, upbeat Canadian data underpinned the loonie and capped gains. The USD/CAD pair built on its steady intraday recovery move from over a two-week low and climbed to a fresh daily top, around the 1.2635-1.2640 region during the early North American session. A combination of factors assisted the USD/CAD pair to attract some buying on the last day of the week and reverse the early dip to sub-1.2600 levels. A goodish pickup in demand for the US dollar acted as a tailwind for spot prices. Apart from this, an intraday pullback in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked loonie and provided modest lift to the major. Investors turned caution amid the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. In fact, Ukrainian Presidential aide Ihor Zhovkva said that talks with Russia are progressing very slowly. Russia accused Ukraine of slowing down peace talks and said that it wants to go at a faster pace, though the Ukraine delegation has not shown readiness to speed talks. This, in turn, tempered investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The market nervousness was evident from a softer tone around the equity markets, which drove some haven flows towards the greenback. Apart from this, the Fed's hawkish outlook further underpinned the buck. Apart from the anti-risk flow, concerns about reduced fuel demand - amid the resurgent of COVID-19 cases in China, Europe and New Zealand - weighed on crude oil prices. That said, the intraday downtick in the black liquid remained limited. This, along with better-than-expected Canadian macro data, benefitted the domestic currency and capped the USD/CAD pair. According to the data released by Statistics Canada, the headline Retail Sales rose at a pace of 3.2% MoM in January as against the consensus estimate for a growth of 2.4%. This comes on the back of hotter-than-expected Canadian consumer inflation figures, which should further add pressure on the Bank of Canada to accelerate rate hikes. The fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before confirming that the USD/CAD pair has bottomed out or positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. That said, bearish traders are likely to wait for sustained break below the 200-day SMA. Some follow-through selling below the monthly low, around the 1.2585 region, will set the stage for additional losses.
by FOREXN1
5
Potential H&S in USD/CAD chartThis can be a sign of exhaustion of the bulls. If you look at the chart, you can see that the pair failed to make a new higher high in the last attempt at rise. After that we were able to see the lower low and there is already a clear H&S pattern. But this can fail like everything else. I would wait for a breakout + retest. This is interesting because of the weak NFP, and in general DXY is struggling to reach new highs and is in a period of consolidation, while CAD shows more strength, and oil is extremely strong, which goes hand in hand with inflation, and as we know CAD and WTI have a strong positive correlation. So, according to all this, we could see bearish pressure on usd/cad in the coming days.
Short
by merjemascerija
7
USD/CAD Reversal - Price Back in Support ZoneA big zone is in play in USD/CAD. This is the same area that held the lows coming into 2021, eventually becoming resistance in April before USD/CAD really broke down. The month of June saw support build just above the 1.2000 level, after which prices began to trend higher and continued to do so into this week. On Monday the breakout took on a life of its own, accelerating up to the 1.2800 handle. And the past two days have seen a stark reversal of that breakout. But, prices are now testing that big zone for support and a hold above 1.2425 or, optimally, 1.2500, keeps the door open for bullish trend continuation strategies.
Long
by JStanleyFX
1