Opportunity of a lifetime
If you are looking for the strongest support you can ever think of, it is the one USD/AUD chart is now at 1.420-1.425. Check month timeframe to see it yourself (or even year tf).
Good chances for a nice bounce from this level. I'm talking about 270-300 pips at least with higher targets at 1.47 for 500 pips .
If that support will be broken, still this trade sounds fantastically safe, as its almost 99% chance that price will come back to the same zone, so after average cost at 1.41 or lower 1.3955 you'll be able to exit in profit 😉
Usdaud
AUD/USD daily- Rising Wdge. Rising Wedges, especially for downward breakouts, are some of the worst performing chart patterns. Downward breakouts have an unacceptable high failure rate and small post breakout declines. They also have a 72% probability of pullbacks.
Rising Wedges breakout direction: 60% probability downwards.
thepatternsite.com
From Thomas Bulkowski- encyclopaedia of chart patterns. Link above.
Week ahead: GDP and InflationWeek ahead: GDP and Inflation
It is a busy week ahead for the markets as the Coronavirus is still front and center. Oil is up 75% in the past month while tensions between the United States and China escelates. Traders and investors should take caution when entering into the markets this week..
As of today, the Coronavirus death toll stands at 343,116 as the United States edges towards the grim milestone of 100,000 deaths.
All dates are in NZDT.
Mexico’s GDP Growth rate – Tuesday, May 26th
Mexico has recorded 7,179 deaths implying a near 11% fatality rate. With over 50 million residents being in relative poverty in a population of 130 million, their Coronavirus “curve” is unlikely to flatten in the short term. Furthermore, the IMF predicts negative GDP growth of -7.1%, down from -.5%.
This is on the back of President Andres Obrador, stating that they will implement a “Happiness Index” alongside their GDP releases.
Currencies to look out for: USD/MXN
US CB Consumer Confidence, GDP Growth Rate and Core PCE Price index – May 27th, 29th and 30th
As the United States edges towards 100,00 deaths due to the Coronavirus, President Donald Trump insists on getting the economy going again. Analysts regard this as gambling on the lives of American Citizens. However, with stimulus checks and working from home be prevalent in the past couple of weeks, the US consumer is predicted to splurge once physical retail opens. A drop from 118.8 to 86.9 last month, analysts predict a slight jump to 88 this month. Alongside this, results on the GDP quarter over quarter is expected to drop 6.9% from 2.1% to -4.8%, with the core PCE Price Index expected to drop to 1.1% from 1.7%. The Core Personal Consumption Price Index is the Feds preferred inflation measure.
Currencies to look out for USD/NZD, USD/AUD
Friday, 29th May – Euro Core Inflation Rate
With the Majority of Europe slowly flattening the curve, plans of a $545 Billion recovery fund backed by debt from the majority of the richer countries in the European Union has come into fruition. Therefore, Europe will be able to “raise money and transfer directly to the countries, regions, and industries most in need, without further impairing their economic situation by increasing their debt,” Euroasia’s Mujtaba Rahman stated to the New York Times. Even alongside the ECB ramping up their Asset purchasing program, demand for goods and services due to the Coronavirus is expected to have a net decline. Inflation is expected to drop this week ahead to 0.8%, from 0.9%
Currencies to look out for: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Sunday, 31st May – China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI
With their recent move to take control of Hong Kong to defend itself from attacks regarding the origins of the Coronavirus, China has been center stage in the Coronavirus and Scrutiny. With Li Keqiang announcing that they will abandon setting their annual target for GDP, their focus shifts to employment with a $500B stimulus package ensuring employees can keep their jobs. This is on top of the myriad government stimulus provided, ensuring liquidity within the financial markets and providing loans to small to medium businesses. A large chunk of the stimulus is predicted to go to infrastructure projects, like that in 2008. With a drop to 20.8 from 52 in April, a boost in government stimulus may see the PMI increase.
Currencies to look out for: AUD/USD
With tensions between different political parties rise alongside election season being in full swing amongst many countries, investors and traders this week ahead should prepare for an increase in volatility as statements for influential figures may cause key currencies and indices to swing violently.
AUD/USD Short-term rejectionAfter the H&S got confirmed, we encountered a bounce on the 0.684 area, jumping back up to the next zone at around 0.686 (50 EMA). As seen, this is a big resistance zone, where the 100 and 50 EMA meet. Therefore, my analysis suggests that there's a bigger possibility of getting rejected on the 4-hour timeframe.
PS: This is not financial advice.
USD/AUD 4H Chart AnalysisUSD/CAD is getting really close to make it's 3rd touch on the upside, which coincides with the 1.464-1.468 resistance zone of it's descending channel so a breakout it's possible. Since this is a volatile market there are a few thing you should take into account:
For longs:
-Wait for a decisive candle close above the channel and the resistance zone and look for an entry on a lower time frame;
-Next possible target at 1.480 area;
For shorts:
-If we see a good rejection on the channel and resistance zone, we can start looking for an entry in a short position with a stop loss above the resistance zone and possible targets on the support areas drawn below.
Be patient, let the market show you which way to go, do always use stop-losses and remember this is not financial advice.
Long AUDUSD (flipped view)This is a flipped view of AUDUSD, that to me gives a better picture of the pair. Right now it double topped and in previous times on this pair a double top/bottom has been respected. A rising wedge has also formed and a false breakout. Right now it broke out and is retest. Stop loss is a bit above the previous highs and take profit is at a point of major support.
USD/AUD SELL SETUPTHIS IS MY BIAS ON USD/AUD .
FIRST OF ALL WE HAVE SEEN A BIG BULLISH MOVE ON THIS PAIR FOR AROUND 500 PIPS.
AS HE HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR MANY DAYS IT NECESSARY FOR PRICE TO RETRACE,
WHERE WE WOULD FALL AGAIN IN THIS WEDGE.
AND IF WE LOOK AT THE TRENDLINE IN THE WEDGE, WE COULD BE TAPPING THIS WITH ONE MORE 3TH BEARISH TOUCH WHAT WOULD RESULT THAT PRICE WOULD GO DOWN.
BECAUSE I THINK PRICE JUST MADE A FAKEOUT FOR MARKET MAKERS TO GRAP SOME MORE LIQUIDITY A THEN REVERSE TO THE DOWNSIDE.
& WE ALSO HAVE NFP COMING, THAT I THINK WILL HELP PUSH PRICE LOWER.