Not bad risk/reward IMHOPro bullish:
- Slight bullish divergence on RSI and Stochastik
- market running into support at lower end of trend channel
- lower Bband at lows
- Spreads steady
Pro neutral:
- nothing clear cut yet in terms of buy signal
This is a good risk reward IMHO
USDBRL
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS.
India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014.
In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009.
Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan.
USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment.
The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then.
The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83.
Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374
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SB Bullish, still on trackStill bullish SB as it appreciated over the past month. It really gained momentum has it had to break out from oversold conditions.
What happened over the course was the term structure (future spreads) are now in backwardation for the entire next year. This leaves me with remaining bullish as it foreshadows supply tightness coming out of Brazil.
Also the USDBRL has come off of its highs and could provide some further support for a rally
Long call trade: EWZ - Yacine Kanoun inspiredYacine Kanoun brought this stock to my attention.
I'm considering purchasing calls with a strike price of 40usd and an expiration date on March 6th.
The spread between USDBRL and EWZ is reaching similar percentages to what has show in the past, so I think that it's due for an adjustment, and thus agree with Yacine.
I also spotted a technical key level, which I want to see the stock avoid to retest during the next week, for a time at mode buy setup to confirm.
My own indicator displaying bands shows price reached an extreme low, and so does rgmov.
The retest of the supply area seen in the last high, but on lower volume is a bullish signal as well.
Remember to risk less than 5% on each trade, in this case, I'm considering a 1.5-3% risk.
Good luck!
