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Usdcadsetup

USD/CAD Forecast: USD Drifting Lower Against CADThe US dollar rallied ever so slightly on Friday against the Canadian dollar but did give back quite a bit of the gains to form an inverted hammer. While it was a slightly positive candlestick, the reality is that we are probably going to go looking a little bit lower for some type of support that we can take advantage of. If we break above the top of the Friday candlestick, then I think the market will probably go looking towards the 1.30 handle, which is my longer-term target. The 1.28 level looks to be a potential support level, so I am going to watch this over the next couple of days and see if we get a bit of a turnaround. If we do, then I am willing to get long again as well. That being said, the lack of liquidity over the next couple of days will make reading too much into the candlesticks a bit dangerous, so I will also use the oil markets as a proxy for what could happen next as well. The market being able to break above the 1.30 level could kick off a longer-term “buy-and-hold” situation, but that something that would more than likely happen well after New Year’s Day. That is why I am using the candlestick for the session on Friday being broken to the upside as a starting point, but I would not put huge amounts of money into this market. That being said, if we do get that move and then eventually take out 1.30, then I would become aggressively long. To the downside, if we take out the 50 day EMA, then I will start shorting and aiming towards the 1.24 level underneath. Needless to say, we would probably coincide with a rising oil market, but we do not necessarily have to. With that in mind, I have a couple of parameters that am paying close attention to and will be acting upon. The next couple of days will more than likely be more along the lines of observation, but if I do get that trade triggered, I would use a position that would be equal to 25% of my normal risk just due to the fact that the illiquid conditions can cause massive spikes sometimes.
Short
by SmoothJB
USD/CAD Forecast: USD Continues to Pull Back Against LoonieThe US dollar has pulled back again during the trading session on Thursday against northern counterpart. The Loonie has been a bit oversold as of late, so this is not a huge surprise. The question now is whether or not this is going to be a simple correction, or is it going to be something bigger? A lot of this could come down to the oil market as per usual, but there are also other things that could move the Canadian dollar. Keep in mind that these two economies are highly intertwined, so that is why quite often this market tends to be very difficult to trade. However, it appears to me that the pullback from the 1.30 level was very deliberate, but I do not necessarily know that it means we are changing directions again. As things stand right now, it simply looks like we are chopping along and try to butt up the necessary momentum to break out to the upside. If we can clear the 1.30 level on a daily candle, that would be a very bullish sign and could send this pair much higher. It is worth noting that we bounced from the 1.20 level, an area that has been crucial on longer-term charts. The question now is whether or not we are actually going to try to revisit that? I highly doubt it at this point. That being said, the 50 day EMA is where I draw a line in the sand, and as long as we can stay above that I think you have to be looking for buying opportunities. It currently sits at the 1.2677 level and is rising quite rapidly due to the extreme momentum that we had seen in the market over the last several weeks. For what it is worth, oil does look a little bit tired at the moment, but with the lack of liquidity in the markets, you cannot read too much into any of these moves over the next couple of days. For me, this is all about the 1.30 handle and whether or not we can break above it. If we can, then it becomes a “buy-and-hold” type of market that I will look for opportunities to add to. I suspect that probably comes sometime in early January, perhaps after the nonfarm payroll numbers. For me, this is all about the 1.30 handle and whether or not we can break above it.
Short
by SmoothJB
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