Sell USDCAD Breakout PatternThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.3750, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3708
2nd Support – 1.3670
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.3800. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Usdcadshort
USD/CAD Faces Resistance at 1.3780, Potential Reversal in SightThe USD/CAD pair has reached the 1.3780 area of resistance, signaling a potential reversal. This comes in the wake of a robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, which dispelled fears of a weakening labor market. The report indicated strong labor demand across all sectors and higher-than-expected wage growth.
Market Dynamics
1. Strong NFP Report: The latest NFP data highlighted a resilient labor market, easing concerns about a slowdown. This strength in the labor market has influenced market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Investors now anticipate that the Fed will cut interest rates once this year, likely in November or December. This outlook is shaping the market's response to recent economic data.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
To gain more insights into the Fed’s potential actions, investors are keenly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy announcement, both scheduled for Wednesday. These events are expected to provide further clarity on the interest rate outlook.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is approaching a significant resistance level at 1.3780. The price action suggests a potential reversal as it encounters this resistance.n.
in conclusion the USD/CAD pair is at a critical juncture, facing resistance at the 1.3780 level. The strong NFP report for May has bolstered the USD, but upcoming CPI data and the Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be crucial in determining the next move. From a technical standpoint, signs are pointing towards a potential reversal at this resistance level. Investors and traders should remain vigilant and look for clear reversal signals before making trading decisions.
USD/CAD Edges Lower as Traders Eye Key US Economic DataUSD/CAD is trending lower during the Asian session on Wednesday, currently trading around 1.3750. This recent movement follows a notable reversal from the 1.3790 area, where technical indicators suggested a potential change in direction.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair exhibited signs of overbought conditions around the 1.3790 mark, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the H4 timeframe. A divergence was observed, signaling that the bullish momentum was weakening and a reversal was likely. The pair has since edged lower, reflecting these technical signals.
Market Sentiment and Economic Data
The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data releases, which are anticipated to inject significant volatility into the trading environment. The key events include the release of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.
Core CPI Data
The Core CPI data, set to be released today, is a critical measure of inflation that excludes food and energy prices. This indicator is closely watched by traders and investors as it provides insights into underlying inflationary pressures within the US economy. Stronger-than-expected CPI figures could reinforce expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially supporting the US Dollar and influencing the USD/CAD pair.
FOMC Decision
In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another pivotal event for the day. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will offer guidance on the central bank's outlook and future monetary policy actions. Market participants will be keenly observing any hints regarding the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments. The FOMC's tone and projections will be crucial in determining the next directional move for the USD/CAD pair.
Anticipated Volatility
Given the significance of these economic events, traders are preparing for heightened volatility. The Core CPI and FOMC decision are expected to provide the necessary catalyst for a potential continuation of the reversal observed in the USD/CAD pair. Depending on the outcomes, we could see significant movements as traders react to the data and adjust their positions accordingly.
in conclusion USD/CAD is currently consolidating its recent losses around 1.3750, following a technical reversal from the 1.3790 area. The pair's future direction will likely be influenced by today's Core CPI release and the FOMC decision. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend, especially if the economic data aligns with the technical indicators pointing towards a reversal.
USDCAD Short - US Dollar correction todayHi.
I think short from this level is worth a risk.
After incredible dollar strength on Friday and multiple sweeps, major pairs fallen into demand zones, and because of big long positioning on canadian dollar for commercial banks, I am expecting USDCAD correction.
My safe target is 1.371 - and this is where I am planning to close the position for this week.
Play safe.
Risk Reward : 1:4
Canadian Dollar Historic Long(Futures)
This is the CoT index of Commercials(Blue) and Retailers(Green). As you can see, Commercials are in the high extreme and Retailers are in low extreme of the index. The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations which ended up in big rallies.
Plus, when the retailers net position(green area) is around -8000 (the dotted green line) resulted in rallies also.
On top of that Commercials net positions(the blue area) is close to the all time high (since 2001). the last time Commercials net positions were this high was May 2017 which ended up in a BIG rally.
Besides, the 15-year seasonality shows bottom of the market around the end of June and top of the market around the end of July.
Keep in mind that this is the Canadian Dollar futures chart which is the inverted of USDCAD of Forex chart.
USD/CAD Correction before next upward rally(6/8/2024)USD/CAD FX:USDCAD has been trapped into a curve, we can see few back and forth movements since last month. Since the NFP data was quite good, we believe the price will move another wave upward after some corrections.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
USDCAD - Awaiting Breakout Amid Key Economic Data ReleasesThe USDCAD pair is currently forming a wedge-type pattern, indicating a period of consolidation that typically precedes a significant price movement. The forthcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases will be critical in determining the direction of the breakout.
---------------------Key Levels:--------------------------------
Strong Support: 1.36000
Medium Resistance: 1.37500
Strong Resistance: 1.38500
Current Market Sentiment:
At this juncture, we maintain a neutral bias on USDCAD, given the potential for either bullish or bearish developments contingent on upcoming economic data.
________________Technical Indicators:__________________
Support and Resistance Analysis: The pair is testing critical support at 1.36000. A break below this level could signal a bearish trend, targeting lower levels as the market reassesses USD strength.
Wedge Pattern Formation: The wedge pattern suggests an imminent breakout, though the direction remains uncertain pending economic data.
Volume Analysis: Observing volume spikes during the breakout will be essential to confirm the direction of the trend.
_____________________Potential Scenarios__________________
Bullish Scenario:
Trigger: A breakout above the medium resistance at 1.37500.
Implication: If USDCAD breaks and sustains above 1.37500, it could pave the way for a continuation towards the strong resistance at 1.38500.
Target: 1.38500 and potentially higher if bullish momentum persists.
Action: Monitor for buy signals upon confirmation of the breakout with increased volume.
Bearish Scenario:
Trigger: A breakdown below the strong support at 1.36000.
Implication: A decisive move below 1.36000 would likely initiate a bearish trend, with the potential for accelerated selling pressure.
Target: Lower levels, possibly revisiting the next significant support zones around 1.35000 and 1.34000.
Action: Consider sell signals if the price breaks below 1.36000, ensuring confirmation through sustained lower price action and volume.
Conclusion:
USDCAD is poised at a critical juncture within a wedge-type pattern. The upcoming NFP and CPI data releases are expected to provide the necessary catalyst for a breakout. Traders should remain vigilant and ready to react to a confirmed breakout above 1.37500 for a bullish trend or below 1.36000 for a bearish trend.
Recommendation: Maintain a neutral stance until the price action dictates a clear direction. Utilize stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively and be prepared to adjust positions based on the market response to the upcoming economic data.
Disclaimer: This report is based on current market conditions and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a professional before making trading decisions.
USDCAD tm:1hHello traders.
I hope you doing well.
These areas are based on my personal strategy and I will share it with you.
Open a sell position on the supply area or open a buy position on the demand area.
Your entry point, stop loss, and target point are based on money management and the amount of money in your trading account.
But I promise you that by trading in the areas of my trading strategy, you will definitely make a profit, because these areas, although they seem simple, are my experience of 8 years of learning and trading.
I hope you will achieve maximum continuous profit with me by using supply and demand areas.
Good luck traders.
Mohammad Goodarzi
USDCAD: First red day in the backside moveHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅ Day 2 cycle
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day ✅
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, I saw many times monday placing the high low of the week (opening range), and market coming back into that level for a breakout, pullback, continuation into the original trend, however, considering the market overall in the backside move, counter trending (as a scalp), will be my second option if a buy low opportunity is presented.
Short: primary, first red day, yesterday the HOW failed and started dropping down with interesting bearish momentum. Waiting the news release before looking for a sell high opportunity, going to stop traders long from Tuesday.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
USD/CAD SHORT from 1.3725My positions SHORT EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been closed as its evident that SELLERS are now pushing the USD south.
With that in mind, I'mnow SHORT USD/CAD.
I was looking for this pair to reach the WR1 weekly pivot at 1.3744 but it now looks like this was a level too far and price has reversed 9 pips short of that target.
RSI on H1 has been over 70 for several hours and in the last 2 hours we've seen it fall to its current level of 55.
MACD has crossed south on H1 and the Andean Oscillator red SELL line has lifted away fro zero and is now reading .0005.
All the signs are that we are headed lower and hopefully I can get a decent + pip STOP on this trade before key news is released at 13:30 this being Prelim GDP and Unemployment Claims followed by Pending Home Sales 90 mionutes later.
If these number come out green then the USD will rise and this trade will exit for a profit but if the numbers come out red then this trade will accelerate to the downside and may reach the main target which is 1.3660 where there is a band of support.
The overall structure of USD/CAD remains BULLISH whilst we remain above 1.3660.
Should 1.3660 break then 1.3600 wil come into play.
USD/CAD SHORT from 1.3660USD/CAD has been declining since last week and shows not sign of finding support.
The Andean Oscillator on the H1 time frame turned BEARISH towards the end of last week and with no obvious levels of support we can expect to see the price of USD/CAD drift lower to 1.3588 area where BUYERS may well lie.
A look at the H4 time frame is revealing.
All 4 EMA's (25/50/100/200) are grouped together and the price is now below this group.
This means that USD/CAD BULLS would have to push through all these EMA's to head north and this seems unlikely in the absence of key drivers.
THe only news on the horizon comes at 15:00 tomorrow with the CB Consumer Confidence which is not generally a big move so if this print disappoints then we can expect to see USD/CAD decline at a faster rate.
The D1 time frame suggests we could be headed for the 200 EMA at 1.3570.
If this key level breaks then there's nothing to stop USD/CAD heading much lower but any significant CAD or USD news would set the agends for this pair.
With the Bank Holiday price action will be slow so I expect to see a gradual but steady decline with this pair.
USDCAD moving lower this week**Monthly Chart**
USDCAD is moving within a large range between 1.30000 and 1.40000 level since Oct 2022 as per monthly chart range.
**Weekly Chart**
The pair is still moving within the range after creating a weekly key reversal around the relative equal highs. The obvious move is to downside at least to test demand zone around 1.32000 level.
**Daily Chart**
The expectation for this week is that USDCAD will push lower from previous swing high level. We need to see a pullback reaction before taking the price lower. Next target will be to break the previous swing low below 1.36000 level.
USDCAD - Long from bullish order block ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCAD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look only for long position. I expect price to make a retracement to fill that huge imbalance and then to reject from bullish order block.
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USD-CADThe USDCAD creates a support level at 1.36200. There is also a vertical downward trendline that touches three times its trendline, which may drain the market downward. If the market holds this support level then the market goes upward to the trendline. But if the market breaks this support zone then the market goes downward to the 1.35600 level.
USDCAD - Bearish continuation ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCAD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. I expect bearish price action to continue after price rejected from bearish order block + trendline. My target is imbalance lower.
Fundamental news: Tomorrow (GMT+3) we will see results of Unemployment Rate on CAD, news with high impact on currency.
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USDCAD (Bearish idea)USDCAD appears to be going bearish at this time. Due to the 2 strong impulses and small correction. I will go short on this pair ONLY if the following criteria is met.
- Price returns to the previous level of support with candlestick confirmation
- Fibonacci levels enter the 61.8% zone.
*always remember to use proper RISK MAANGEMENT*
Sell USDCAD Channel PatternThe USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a possible shorting opportunity due to the presence of a channel pattern.
Potential Short Trade:
Entry: Consider entering a short position (selling) only after a confirmed breakout below the support trendline of the channel. Ideally, this would be around 1.3750 or lower if the price continues to decline after the breakout.
Target Levels:
1.3652: This target is achieved by measuring the height of the channel (distance between the resistance and support lines) and projecting it downwards from the breakout point.
1.3607: This is a further extension of the downside target, based on roughly twice the height of the channel.
Stop-Loss: Once the entry point is confirmed, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally with some buffer around 1.3770. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
the price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud USDCAD SHORTThe sell zone seems solid as the price has been rejected multiple times in the past. I do notice that the price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, which is a good sign of bearish momentum. Let's see how this plays out.
Potential Trade Opportunity:
Currency Pair: USDCAD
Position: long
Risk to Reward Ratio: 3R
Trade Parameters:
SellLimit:
Entry Point: 1.37301
Stop Loss: 1.37363
Take Profit: 1.37107
Disclaimer:
This trade signal is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in the forex market involves substantial risk, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The provided entry, stop loss, and take profit levels are based on analysis at the time of publication, but market conditions may change rapidly, leading to losses. Traders should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before executing any trades. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and we shall not be liable for any losses incurred in connection with this trade signal. It is recommended to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.