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USDCAD: The influence of USDThe BoC takes a more dovish path The Bank of Canada flagged areas sensitive to rising interest rates like the housing sector. The BoC noted that housing activity has fallen sharply and household spending is falling. Furthermore, in the released statement prior to the Q&A BoC’s Macklem stated that the tightening phase will draw to a close, ‘but not there yet’. He added that they expect growth to fall in the next few quarters. As a balance to this statement, the BoC still stated that policy interest rates will need to rise further to counter elevated inflation. The Council also repeated that the bank’s preferred measure of inflation (core) is not showing meaningful signs of price pressure easing. So, this means the BoC is starting to start thinking about slowing the path of rates. This is a more dovish stance from the BoC and should allow the CAD to weaken somewhat over the medium term. After the rate statement, Governor Macklem highlighted that he expected a ‘significant slowing of the economy to occur’.
Long
by Jiren-SphynChannels
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USDCAD: US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve curreThe Return of the Sellers Over the past two decades, the US Dollar's market share has declined from 71 percent to 59 percent, and it may continue to reduce further in the future. This has a negative impact on the United States since global currency usage is a zero-sum game. When other currencies like Yuan, real, or Rupee are used in global trade, the US Dollar is left out. If other currencies gain more prominence, it may compromise America's dominance in the global market.
Short
by Jiren-SphynChannels
USD/CAD Reacts to CPI, Debt Ceiling Woes Two big events affecting the USD/CAD pair include the CPI reading from Canada yesterday as well as the ongoing debt ceiling crisis in the US. In April, the monthly Canadian headline CPI surged by 0.7%, resulting in an annual rate of 4.4% compared to the previous 4.3%. This increase exceeded the consensus estimates by three-tenths of a percent in both instances. Consequently, the USD/CAD experienced a 0.4% decrease, reaching 1.3404, before rebounding to a high of 1.3535 USD/CAD has now also breached its 200-day simple moving average on the downside, closing below it to reinforce the bearish signal. Strengthening this assertion is that the Bank of Canada had recently put a halt to its tightening campaign, having raised interest rates by 425 basis points since March 2022. However, they indicated that this pause was dependent on the inflation outlook aligning with the forecasted trajectory. It is unlikely that this week's CPI data meets this requirement. Offsetting the positive news for the Canadian dollar is the prevailing optimism in the United States regarding the government's ability to avoid defaulting on its debt. Following emergency discussions at the White House, President Joe Biden and Republican leaders cautiously expressed hope for a potential agreement to raise the US debt ceiling. The agreement must be reached and approved by both houses of Congress before the federal government exhausts its funds to cover expenses, which could occur as soon as June 1 (only two weeks away). Despite House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy stating that the two parties remain considerably apart, he believes that a deal could be achieved by the end of the current week.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCAD - FUNDAMENTAS WITH TECHNICAL LEVELS#USDCAD USDCAD is now quite BUY. The dollar started to strengthen slightly because of the short-term POSITIVE SENTIMENT for the dollar. Because it came with the NFP REPORT. The dollar weakened slightly after the FOMC last time. But the FED can raise the RATE HIKE or their CEILING RATE whenever necessary. Anyway, it was mentioned in the previous MEETING that the FED is still MONITORING INFLATION DATA. We think it will go up to 1.3585 level before going down again. Also, with this MARKET RISK ON SENTIMENT, the USDCAD PRICE can SELL to the 1.3300 LEVEL in the future. FOLLOW THE STRUCTURE GIVEN.
by benny_marshall