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USD/CAD: Consolidation Calm Before the Storm? The USD/CAD has been consolidating since late last Friday. Key levels include 1.346 and 1.345 for the upper bound and 1.341 and 1.340 for the lower bound. The market appears to be in the middle of the storm that might be unleashed after the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. In January, the BoC made history by being the first major global central bank to stop its rate-hiking cycle and has kept rates unchanged at its last two policy meetings. However, the economy's unexpectedly robust performance since then has placed the bank in a challenging position and will test its determination to maintain a neutral stance. After declining from its peak at 8.1% in 2022, inflation in Canada unexpectedly experienced its first increase in 10 months, surging to 4.4% in April from 4.3% in March. The increase is being attributed to the recent rebound in Canada's housing market. The current market consensus is for an approximately 40% to 45% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike on Wednesday. According to some, this is underestimating the possibility of a rate hike. Which means that the lower bounds of the current consolidation band could easily be tested (and broken) in the lead up to the interest rate decision. On the other side of the trade, the US dollar faced obstacles as it was revealed that the US services sector experienced minimal growth in May, primarily due to a slowdown in new orders. This news brought an end to the initial surge in the USD, which was triggered by incredibly robust job growth.
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by BlackBull_Markets
3
USDCAD: The influence of USDThe BoC takes a more dovish path The Bank of Canada flagged areas sensitive to rising interest rates like the housing sector. The BoC noted that housing activity has fallen sharply and household spending is falling. Furthermore, in the released statement prior to the Q&A BoC’s Macklem stated that the tightening phase will draw to a close, ‘but not there yet’. He added that they expect growth to fall in the next few quarters. As a balance to this statement, the BoC still stated that policy interest rates will need to rise further to counter elevated inflation. The Council also repeated that the bank’s preferred measure of inflation (core) is not showing meaningful signs of price pressure easing. So, this means the BoC is starting to start thinking about slowing the path of rates. This is a more dovish stance from the BoC and should allow the CAD to weaken somewhat over the medium term. After the rate statement, Governor Macklem highlighted that he expected a ‘significant slowing of the economy to occur’.
Long
by Jiren-SphynChannels
1
USDCAD: US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve curreThe Return of the Sellers Over the past two decades, the US Dollar's market share has declined from 71 percent to 59 percent, and it may continue to reduce further in the future. This has a negative impact on the United States since global currency usage is a zero-sum game. When other currencies like Yuan, real, or Rupee are used in global trade, the US Dollar is left out. If other currencies gain more prominence, it may compromise America's dominance in the global market.
Short
by Jiren-SphynChannels
USD/CAD Reacts to CPI, Debt Ceiling Woes Two big events affecting the USD/CAD pair include the CPI reading from Canada yesterday as well as the ongoing debt ceiling crisis in the US. In April, the monthly Canadian headline CPI surged by 0.7%, resulting in an annual rate of 4.4% compared to the previous 4.3%. This increase exceeded the consensus estimates by three-tenths of a percent in both instances. Consequently, the USD/CAD experienced a 0.4% decrease, reaching 1.3404, before rebounding to a high of 1.3535 USD/CAD has now also breached its 200-day simple moving average on the downside, closing below it to reinforce the bearish signal. Strengthening this assertion is that the Bank of Canada had recently put a halt to its tightening campaign, having raised interest rates by 425 basis points since March 2022. However, they indicated that this pause was dependent on the inflation outlook aligning with the forecasted trajectory. It is unlikely that this week's CPI data meets this requirement. Offsetting the positive news for the Canadian dollar is the prevailing optimism in the United States regarding the government's ability to avoid defaulting on its debt. Following emergency discussions at the White House, President Joe Biden and Republican leaders cautiously expressed hope for a potential agreement to raise the US debt ceiling. The agreement must be reached and approved by both houses of Congress before the federal government exhausts its funds to cover expenses, which could occur as soon as June 1 (only two weeks away). Despite House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy stating that the two parties remain considerably apart, he believes that a deal could be achieved by the end of the current week.
by BlackBull_Markets