USDCAD | Perspective for the new weekWe scooped over 500pips from our last publication as price moved aggressively in our direction ( see link below for reference purposes).
Earlier in the week, we witnessed high volatility as price hit a high at CA$1.28000 ish only to fall drastically during the week to close below a major Support/Resistance level @ CA$1.26300 with signs expressing doubt of buying the Greenback over the Canadian Dollar. With all eyes focused on FOMC in the coming week; a Channel Breakdown expectation, a V-shaped recovery in oil prices (check USOil chart) coupled with a better than expected Canadian retail sales report is a positive sign for me to sell the Greenback for the Loonie in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal set-up
Observation: i. It is evident from our Daily chart that the USD has been on a rally since June 2021 and it appears to have found a peak at CA$1.28000.
ii. The beginning of July 2021 expressed a steady growth in the Dollar as price action is contained between upward sloping parallel lines.
iii. The appearance of an Ascending Channel is confirmed after drawing a lower trend line that connecting the swing lows, and an upper channel line that joining the swing highs.
iv. The Breakout of the channel on the 19th of July 2021 appears to be a false one after considering the pattern of the Bearish move that followed the Breakout which also closed below the major Support/Resistance level @ CA$1.26300 on the daily chart - a sign that Buyers could not hold the momentum above this level for long.
v. I look forward to a breakdown of my new Key level @ CA$1.25500 and channel to the downside in the coming as the likelihood for a rise in USOil becomes evident.
vi. In this regard, I have identified a niche around CA$1.26300/1.25400 for selling opportunity with a high probability of a Channel Breakdown.
vii. See the chart for levels that might welcome opportunities to add to our existing position.
viii. For fellow cautious traders, below Key level remains a safe haven to sell... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 5 to 10days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
