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Usdchfanalysis

USD/CHF Retreats Amidst Lower US Treasury YieldsUSD/CHF Retreats Amidst Lower US Treasury Yields The USD/CHF currency pair is currently navigating a complex landscape, marked by a pullback in the US Dollar, potentially fueled by lower US Treasury yields. Despite the initial cheers from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, the Greenback finds itself facing challenges, with risk aversion sentiment lending some support. Additionally, the Swiss Franc has experienced selling pressure, triggered by concerns raised by Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan regarding the impact of CHF's strength on inflation and the broader domestic economy. Technical Analysis: From a technical standpoint, the forecast remains clear, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish trend. The failure to breach the resistance at 0.8700, coupled with the rejection at the confluence of the Dynamic trendline and the 78.6% Fibonacci level, suggests that the bears might still have the upper hand. Traders are keenly watching for any signs of a new bearish impulse aligning with the established downtrend. SNB's Inflation Concerns: The recent selling pressure on the Swiss Franc can be attributed to SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan's expressed worries about the CHF's strength and its potential impact on the SNB's ability to maintain inflation above zero. This concern arises despite some positive economic indicators, such as a slight increase in Swiss consumer prices in December and an improvement in consumer demand in November. Economic Indicators: While recent economic indicators paint a mixed picture, with positive signs in consumer prices and demand, Swiss Producer and Import Prices (YoY) witnessed a decline in December, following a similar trend in November. These more moderate figures may temper the SNB's decision-making in the upcoming meeting, as they grapple with the delicate balance of supporting economic recovery while ensuring inflation remains within a stable range. SNB's Commitment to Monetary Policy: In the SNB's last policy update in December, the central bank reiterated its commitment to adjusting monetary policy if necessary to maintain inflation within a range consistent with price stability over the medium term. The cautious stance suggests that despite the recent economic fluctuations, the SNB remains vigilant and ready to act to ensure economic stability. Conclusion: As the USD/CHF pair faces headwinds from lower US Treasury yields and the SNB's inflation concerns, traders are keeping a close eye on technical indicators and the broader economic landscape. The failure to breach key resistance levels indicates a potential continuation of the bearish trend. However, the SNB's commitment to adjusting monetary policy underscores the uncertainty in the current economic environment. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly, considering both technical and fundamental factors shaping the USD/CHF trajectory. Our preference Short positions Below 0.88200 with targets at 0.85200 & 0.8400 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
USDCHF: Experts predict a difficult year for the Swiss Franc“The franc is once more overvalued,” stated David Alexander Meier, economist at Julius Baer Group and pinnacle fourth-region FX forecaster in keeping with Bloomberg. Mr. David expects the franc to fall approximately 4% from modern tiers with the aid of using the quit of the yr while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stops assisting the foreign money. This is extra than double the common estimate of economists. His view is primarily based totally at the SNB`s current U-turn, which signaled that it might possibly ease - if now no longer absolutely reverse - the overseas foreign money income that helped the CHF top in 2015 towards the EUR and EUR. USD. Last week, SNB President Thomas Jordan stated the terrible effect of the highly-priced franc on exporters. The economist expects the SNB, which has the second one-lowest hobby charge amongst G-10 countries, to begin decreasing hobby prices while inflation in Switzerland stabilizes beneath the 2% goal with the aid of using the quit of this yr. He stated the SNB is not likely to preserve shopping for overseas foreign money reserves, an pastime that has stopped considering that the second one region of 2022. That will placed stress at the franc, even extra than the decline in overseas foreign money income. The franc rose almost 10% towards the U.S. greenback closing yr, the largest benefit the various G-10 and its best-appearing foreign money considering that 2010. However, till January this yr, CHF has slipped in conjunction with G-10 currencies and misplaced approximately 2.5% of its cost amid a more potent dollar way to developing expectancies of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) easing economic policy. .
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
USDCHF - Short pattern confirmed ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF. Technical analysis: Here we have the confirmation of SH + BOS + FVG pattern. Price firstly raided buy side liquidity with a stop hunt then broke the structure and reacted from imbalance (FVG). I expect bearish price action to the support zone. Fundamental news: Next week is full of news in USA. Firstly on Wednesday we have Interest Rate followed by FOMC Conference, then on Friday NFP and Unemployment Rate. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
USDCHF TO 0.84000?Is it time for the USDCHF to head lower? Let's look at this pair from a technical perspective. To understand the direction of a pair, we have to first look at the higher timeframes. The monthly, weekly and daily timeframe suggest that this is a downtrend.. It's not a matter of where the trend is headed, because obviously, it's a downtrend.. Since we "know" what trend this is and where it could lead, our job is to look for trading opportunities in this direction. Our job is to SELL. Do we just wake up and sell? Well, no. We all have our entry patterns, so we do well to employ such methods as we look to trade USDCHF. We can clearly see reacting to the key level around 0.87000. If price does not violate this key area, then we can be "sure" this could be a lower high. If this level does hold, then price is likely to trade lower into 0.84000.
Short
by Men_of_The_Markets
Will It Plunge Lower or Rally Back To 0.88 ??In the closing weeks of 2023, this pair experienced a significant sell off, plunging nearly 500 pips and breaking decisively below the September low. Reflecting on my July trade idea post, the market movement matched my expectations, though it did peak slightly higher than anticipated. So, what's next? As I mentioned back in July, following the rise above 0.88, the next downward phase is expected to target the 2015 depeg low. Pinpointing the exact level is somewhat challenging, as different brokers quote slightly varying figures. However, it's likely in the range of 0.80 to 0.83, with 0.83 seeming more probable. This is supported by lower timeframe analysis, where we've seen price repeatedly dip towards this level and then swiftly rebound - a classic sign of seller fatigue and buyers entering the fray. (refer to image below) I anticipate that the pair's next move will be a rebound towards the newly established Weekly SELL zone, which lies between 0.87 and 0.88. Similar to the July movement, this rally might even extend towards 0.89. Given that it's the first week of the year, I'm approaching this pair with extra caution. A swift drop below 0.83, or lower, is not off the table, especially considering the variance in brokers' 2015 depeg low levels. My plan of attack for this pair is wait for a drop back down towards 0.83 and then start build into a position taking signals of my TRFX indicator from the 4hr to 12hr timeframes. Target for this idea will be the Weekly Sell zone @ 0.87 to 0.88. Once there, I'll closely monitor price action to gauge market reaction at this pivotal level. This zone presents a prime opportunity for sellers to re-enter and drive the market down towards the substantial Monthly and Weekly Buy zones ranging between 0.80 - 0.70. Over the next year or so, I expect the pair to descend to these levels. But before that, a short-term rally to the aforementioned levels seems likely, followed by another significant drop, just as I outlined in my July post. Hope you found this interesting, and Happy New Year!
Long
by TheFxAce
17
Data-Driven Based Support Level for FuturesDuring the strengthening of the franc, option traders actively gained 'naked puts' levels. To create a spread strategy, traders can add a long position in the underlying asset, resulting in a breakeven call or a spread when selling an out-of-the-money call in the same series. This allows the trader to enter the market with no risk or even a small profit immediately. Based on this advantage, we expect a surge in buying activity at the current level or slightly lower.
CME:6SH2024Long
by ClashChartsTeam
USDCHF: USD is calm and trading volume is lowThe dollar traded subdued in early European trading on Monday, with the US holiday keeping trading volume down as traders considered the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 102.242, at the start of the holiday. Martin Luther King Jr. The U.S. producer price index unexpectedly fell in December, according to data released Friday, prompting traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now indicates a 78% chance that the US central bank will begin easing interest rates in March, compared with a 68% chance a week ago. The US data calendar is quiet this week, with the main focus on retail sales data due out on Wednesday. This will be closely watched for signs that consumer spending - the main driver of economic growth - remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. Retail sales are expected to increase 0.4% in December, after rising 0.3% in November. Investors will also have the opportunity to hear from several Fed officials, including Fed Governor Christoper Waller as well as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed head Mary Daly.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
7 Dimension Analysis For USDCHF 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: H4, D1 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish on both time frames 🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS) 🟢 Swing Move: Corrective, indicating a nearly completed sideways move 🟢 Inducement: Liquidity sweep with a long wick candle 🟢 Decisional OB: Mitigated, resistance at CIP with a strong buildup post-breakout, indicating bearish strength in the area 🟢 Traps: Shakeout completed in this area (Arrows) 🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily and H4 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS: Reversal with a triple top observed during this phase, forming a Consolidation Rectangle 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Notable long wick, Open low/high pattern awaiting confirmation, and an already formed Tower Top 3️⃣ Volume 🟢 Fixed Range: Sell volume predominant in this area 🟢 Low Volume on Breakout: High volume in the purple rectangle area, but without updating Upside move. Expecting a sharp downward move. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI 🟢 Zone: Price in a wide bearish range 🟢 Range Shift: Bearish to sideways shift observed 🟢 Grandfather Father Son: A 6-star selling setup according to this RSI strategy, with an 80% probability 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands 🟢 Middle Band: No confirmation yet 🟢 Contraction: After an expansion move, the market is now in full contraction mode, making outside-of-the-band closing crucial 🟢 Squeeze Breakout: Anticipated 🟢 Walking on the Band: Awaiting 🟢 Headfake: Two observed 🟢 Band Puncher: Three times observed (For those seeking to learn these concepts in a professional manner, feel free to send me a direct message.) 6️⃣ Strength According to ROC 🟢 Values: CHF 7.19 vs. USD -3.46 7️⃣ Sentiment ☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Done ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Awaiting 💡 Decision: Sell 🚀 Entry: 0.8474 ✋ Stop Loss: 0.8590 🎯 Take Profit: 0.8133 2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 3 🕛 Expected Duration: 15 days SUMMARY: The analysis points toward a bearish sentiment, advocating for a sell decision. The entry is set at 0.8474, with a stop loss at 0.8590, take profit at 0.8133, and a risk-to-reward ratio of 3, expecting completion in approximately 15 days.
Short
by Optimum369
Will USDCHF breakout Tomorrow? (after US Inflation report)Will USDCHF breakout Tomorrow? (after US Inflation report) USDCHF recently surpassed both its 50 and 100-hour moving averages, yet it remains confined within its 2024 trading range. Fluctuations between risk-on and risk-off sentiments keep the pair moving between 0.84635 and 0.85294. Initially, bullish optimism followed comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, suggesting 2 potential interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Additional news this week supporting the Swiss franc was the inflation rate in Switzerland rose to 1.7% in December 2023 from 1.4% in the previous month and above forecasts of 1.5%. However, a recent shift towards risk aversion has led investors back to the US Dollar, however without creating a distinct market trend. When will this non-trending market transition into a more trending market? Perhaps at the drop of the US inflation report tomorrow. In the meantime, maintaining a bullish stance depends on the price staying above its elevated 100-hour moving average at 0.85100 and a break of the recent high at 0.8535 could instigate more buying momentum. A drop below this level could shift the bias towards neutrality.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCHF: Morgan Stanley: Fed will keep interest rates higher for Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said: "The Fed will cut interest rates this year." But "the Fed can be patient and take its time." Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time at its June meeting. The Fed will keep interest rates stable for longer than the market expects. But if that happens, there will be more cuts than expected. The first rate cut of 25 basis points will take effect in June. Subsequent rate cuts are expected to occur by 25 basis points at meetings in September, November, and December.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
USDCHF - Look for a short ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H. timeframe perspective, so I am looking for short. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance higher and then to react from institutional big figure 0.85000. Fundamental news: Next week on Friday will be released NFP and Unemployment Rate in USA. News with a lot of impact. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Short
by Snick3rSD
8