Usdchfforecast
USDCHF profit target reached, time to turn bearishSell below 1.0136. Stop loss at 1.0116. Take profit at 1.0071.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has bounced up perfectly as expected yesterday and has reached our profit target. We turn bearish closing off our profitable bullish position because of the changing elements. We now look to sell below 1.0136 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance) for a push down to 1.0071 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 95% level.
USDCHF approaching major support, prepare to buyBuy above 1.0033. Stop loss at 1.0000. Take profit at 1.0090.
Reason for the trading strategy (technicall y):
Price is approaching major support at 1.0033 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal support) where we expect to see a bounce towards at least 1.0090 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) is approaching our long term ascending support where we expect a bounce from.
USDCHF turn bullish with long term resistance brokenBuy above 0.9958. Stop loss at 0.9900. Take profit at 1.0044.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has broken our long term descending resistance-turned-support line signalling a change in momentum to bullish. We turn bullish above 0.9958 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, pullback support) for a push up to 1.0044 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance).
RSI (55) has made a bullish exit similar to the one seen in price and is also above ascending support.
USD/CHF ... Same view as Morgan StanleyUSDCHF has under-performed in the broad USD rally. Interest rate differentials for both 10 and 2y maturities imply USDJPY should trade above parity.
CHF remains a risk sensitive currency but the magnitude of the moves are smaller than for the JPY. Expectations for fiscal easing in the US are helping the USD and risk appetite, which is good for this currency pair.
While EURCHF has fallen through the beloved 1.08 level and looks for lower I suspect the downside for EURCHF is likely to be limited with the SNB standing ready to intervene to support the lower boundary.
In any event focusing on USDCHF as it has diverged from where relative yield differentials suggest it should be trading.
The risk to this trade is an equity market sell off or turnaround in US yields.
USDCHF - 3 Trades on the horizonUSDCHF, like many of the USD pairs has exploded up to 1.382 extensions and so I am looking ahead to my final target of longing the USDCHF up to 0.98600.
Trade #1: I will wait for price to retrace back down to 0.97125 before looking to go long for 50 pips.
Trade #2: Once price hits 0.97650 I will be looking for reasons to short back down to 0.96860 for 80 pips.
Trade #3: If the signs for a decent long position present themselves then I will look to take profit around 0.98600 for +175 pips.
The risk to this longer term outlook is a quick resumption of the recent bullish trend at the 382 fib level located at the 0.97300, with that target then being 0.98900.
What are your thoughts on USDCHF?
USDCHF Market Analysis and Trading Tips 11th August 2016 SUMMARY:
The USDCHF pair bounced slightly during the course of the day Wednesday, using the 0.9733 level as support. At this point in time, the market is looking bearish. The primary trend of USDCHF is bearish on charts and price is trading below its support trend line in its hourly chart. In its daily chart the price is sustaining below 100 day SMA that are appears on the above image indicating downtrend of the pair. It is having an important resistance at the level of 0.9775 Support at the level of 0.9733. If it breaks its support level on the downside and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.
INDICATORS:-
MACD is sustaining in its negative territory indicating the bearish trend in the pair.
RSI is sustaining in its selling zone indicating the upcoming negative trend in the pair.
STRATEGY:
USDCHF is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions in it.
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USDCHF on sale 75% off on selected items- Broken trend line on 4hr time frame and daily
- In daily we just crossed over the overbought area in RSI
- MACD about to cross in daily and it already crossed in 4hrs
- Ratio so good I don't know what to do with myself.
- DXY also broke a trend line to the downside, so am expecting dollar to weaken