Dollar's comebackAs what you all have already known, I am a big fan of the Fakey setup as this is a strong signal which follows a strong movement day after.
From yesterday's session. the USDCHF Forex pair has formed a fakey bar by easily erasing the losses made during yesterday's Asian session. For those who do not know, Asian sessions are mostly 'fake' movements. I need not broaden my reasoning for entering this trade as saying it formed a fakey bar is enough.
Usdchfoutlook
USDCHF BOUNCE OFF OF SYMMETRYWatching the swiss franc for a bounce off a symmetrical low that was put in last week. My trigger is an entry after the break of the previous week's high and a stop beneath the low. The expectation is to run up to another fib level in a 61.8% level from a recent down move.
USDCHF LONG TRIGGERED ON SUPPORT + SNDLOOKING AT THE USDCHF D1 CHART, I'M MT BULLISH BIAS AS HIGHER HIGH & HIGHER LOW ON SIGHT. BESIDES, EMA 20 & 50 PLAY ROLE AS MY SUPPORT AS WELL. THUS, MY USDCHF LONG POSITION TRIGGERED ON 1.0030 WITH A STOP AROUND 0.9960 AND TARGETING 1.0230 REGION.
HOWEVER, IF USDCHF COULD DROP LOWER THAN 0.9950 REGION WITH A STRONG SHAVED BAR, IT WOULD NEGATE MY MT BULLISH BIAS ON USDCHF.
USDCHF approaching major support, prepare to buyBuy above 1.0033. Stop loss at 1.0000. Take profit at 1.0090.
Reason for the trading strategy (technicall y):
Price is approaching major support at 1.0033 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal support) where we expect to see a bounce towards at least 1.0090 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) is approaching our long term ascending support where we expect a bounce from.
USDCHF turn bullish with long term resistance brokenBuy above 0.9958. Stop loss at 0.9900. Take profit at 1.0044.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has broken our long term descending resistance-turned-support line signalling a change in momentum to bullish. We turn bullish above 0.9958 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, pullback support) for a push up to 1.0044 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance).
RSI (55) has made a bullish exit similar to the one seen in price and is also above ascending support.
USD/CHF Daily0.985 - important strong support level
Bearish scenario: daily close below 0.985 will open the way to 0.97 (200 EMA on Weekly time frame, long term uptrend line).
Bullish: reversal around 0.985-0.99 and close above 0.995 - profit targets at 1.004, 1.0155 and 1.0345
Situation similar and correlated to DXY.
USD/CHF ... Same view as Morgan StanleyUSDCHF has under-performed in the broad USD rally. Interest rate differentials for both 10 and 2y maturities imply USDJPY should trade above parity.
CHF remains a risk sensitive currency but the magnitude of the moves are smaller than for the JPY. Expectations for fiscal easing in the US are helping the USD and risk appetite, which is good for this currency pair.
While EURCHF has fallen through the beloved 1.08 level and looks for lower I suspect the downside for EURCHF is likely to be limited with the SNB standing ready to intervene to support the lower boundary.
In any event focusing on USDCHF as it has diverged from where relative yield differentials suggest it should be trading.
The risk to this trade is an equity market sell off or turnaround in US yields.
USDCHF - 3 Trades on the horizonUSDCHF, like many of the USD pairs has exploded up to 1.382 extensions and so I am looking ahead to my final target of longing the USDCHF up to 0.98600.
Trade #1: I will wait for price to retrace back down to 0.97125 before looking to go long for 50 pips.
Trade #2: Once price hits 0.97650 I will be looking for reasons to short back down to 0.96860 for 80 pips.
Trade #3: If the signs for a decent long position present themselves then I will look to take profit around 0.98600 for +175 pips.
The risk to this longer term outlook is a quick resumption of the recent bullish trend at the 382 fib level located at the 0.97300, with that target then being 0.98900.
What are your thoughts on USDCHF?
USDCHF Market Analysis and Trading Tips 11th August 2016 SUMMARY:
The USDCHF pair bounced slightly during the course of the day Wednesday, using the 0.9733 level as support. At this point in time, the market is looking bearish. The primary trend of USDCHF is bearish on charts and price is trading below its support trend line in its hourly chart. In its daily chart the price is sustaining below 100 day SMA that are appears on the above image indicating downtrend of the pair. It is having an important resistance at the level of 0.9775 Support at the level of 0.9733. If it breaks its support level on the downside and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.
INDICATORS:-
MACD is sustaining in its negative territory indicating the bearish trend in the pair.
RSI is sustaining in its selling zone indicating the upcoming negative trend in the pair.
STRATEGY:
USDCHF is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions in it.
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(USDCHF) Daily - speculation & analysisWe have an on going wedge for the past year, I had earlier forecast a downfall in this pair which didn't happen. The downfall is still a possibility, if we break the yellow trend line, am expecting a drop to the bottom of the wedge. We can also head to "No man's land" in which we can hit the top of the wedge and come back down again, or break it and head up, if we do break it, I will wait for consolidation and buy long term.
Liability Disclaimer : All trades posted here are my personal view of the market.
If your planning to use them as signal, do your own research first and you are responsible for your own entries, exit, profit and loss management.
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USD/CHF IS TESTING SUPPORT AREA, WATCH FOR BULLISH SIGNAL.Some correction occurs on USD/CHF. The price has pulled back into the reference area at 0.9744-0.9734. Remains bullish as long as the support at 0.9734 remains intact. As intraday trading strategy, you must get bullish signal confirmation within the reference area in order to go long with potential target at 0.9835-0.9884
USDCHF on sale 75% off on selected items- Broken trend line on 4hr time frame and daily
- In daily we just crossed over the overbought area in RSI
- MACD about to cross in daily and it already crossed in 4hrs
- Ratio so good I don't know what to do with myself.
- DXY also broke a trend line to the downside, so am expecting dollar to weaken
USDCHF Sell Set Up @ 0.99 PullbackECB meeting caused a breakout for the otherwise sideways trending Dollar Swiss.
The downside is now open with an opportunity to enter short via a 4HR candle entry on a pull back to the 31.80% fib level (0.98893) or a re-test of the short term trend line.
My entry criteria is an exhausted re-test or the stated fib level or trend line. Two target zones are present which are the longer term trend line around (0.98000) and further down to the previous low at the 100% fib level (0.96623).
USDCHF SHORT WEEKLYWe expect USDCHF to sink on weekly basis.
*CCI is sinking
*RSI is sinking
*STOCHASTICS RSI is sinking
We would like to short USDCHF bellow: 0.9906 SL: 0.9921 TGT 01: 0.9870 TGT 02: 0.9854 TGT 03:0.9803. [b ]Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing .
USDCHF LONGThere are many reason why we feel it may Rise.
* It has formed hammer 2 weeks ago in weekly chart .
* To Rise and come near 1.0026 levels
* Stoch RSI (3,3,14,Close) clearly states it may Rise.
* RSI (14,CLOSE) Is also of the same view.
* CCI (20,CLOSE) Is also sinking.
Keeping all the above indicators in view along with the chart pattern we expect it to sink. Our sell call shall be from Buy above: 0.9976 sl@:0.9962, Tgt 01:1.0010 Tgt 02:1.0026, Tgt 03:1.0075
We are expecting this to happen shortly. Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing.
Forex Analysis and Trading Tips - 22nd Feb 2016USD/CHF ( DAILY )
RECOMMENDATION: SELL
SUMMARY:
The secondary trend of USD/CHF is bearish on charts and price is trading below the trend line in its daily chart. In daily chart the price is sustaining above 200 day SMA and taking resistance of 50 day SMA indicating downtrend of the pair. It is having an important resistance at the level of 1.0005 and support at the level of 0.9660. If it breaks its support level on the downside and sustains below it then we can expect it to show further bearish movement in the pair.
INDICATORS:-
MACD is sustaining in its negative territory indicating the bearish trend in the pair.
RSI is sustaining in its selling zone indicating the upcoming bearish trend in the pair.
STRATEGY:
USD/CHF is looking bearish on charts for next few trading session. One can go for sell on higher level strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions in it.