Sell Signals Looming? This Pair Nears Crucial SELL ZoneThis pair has been on a strong upward trend since the beginning of the year, following a significant drop at the end of December. At that time, I shared my first trading idea for 2024 on TradingView.
You can find that idea linked in a related post at the bottom of this discussion. That trading strategy was spot on, hitting our target of 0.88, although I had mentioned the possibility of climbing even higher, beyond 0.90, due to certain key levels.
And that's precisely what happened. The price is now nearing the SELL/SUPPLY zone at 0.91. This level was established in September 2023 and initiated the decline to 0.83. So, what comes next? Is it time to sell?
If we examine the weekly chart below, you'll see a SELL/SUPPLY level right beneath the monthly one, which I believe was the real trigger for the descent to the new lows. The initial drop (indicated by a red arrow) did not set a new low, with the market pausing before plummeting sharply for eight consecutive weeks.
This is the zone where selling should be considered, especially as the market has been rising for nearly 13 straight weeks and appears to be extremely overbought as we enter the Weekly SELL/SUPPLY zone between 0.90 & 0.91.
The Daily chart shows that momentum hasn't diminished significantly and remains strong. This suggests that we might see a minor pullback towards 0.88 before another surge to the swing high @0.92, followed by another sell-off (refer to the chart below).
I'll now begin searching for SELL signals on the 4hr timeframe with the TRFX indicator, aiming for a short-term sell position towards 0.88 or possibly lower, around 0.86.
Price may continue its ascent towards 0.92 without the short-term pullback, given the strength in the daily trend, and then proceed to sell-off. Hence, I will also be preparing for this scenario and look to add to my position if the price moves up.
In the longer term, this pair is still bearish on the Monthly charts, and a bullish trend would only be confirmed by a clean break and close above 0.92, which could then open the path for moves all the way back to 1.04.
For now, I anticipate a sell-off from these levels given the overstretched 13-week bullish run and entry into a key Monthly SELL/SUPPLY zone that precipitated last year's lows.
Let me know your thoughts below.
Usdchfshort
USDCHF
In the 4-hour timeframe, USD/CHF is displaying a bullish trend, characterized by an ascending channel and an ABC Elliott wave pattern. An optimal selling opportunity arises as the price touches the resistance trendline of the ascending channel, accompanied by bearish price action. Traders may consider initiating short positions at this juncture, anticipating a potential reversal from the channel's resistance line.
USDCHF - Expect retracement ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long position. I wait price to continue the retracement and my point of interest for a long is if price rejects from trendline + S/R level + institutional big figure 0.89000.
Fundamental news: Next week on Thursday we have news on USD, will be released quarterly GDP, which has high impact on currency.
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USDCHF Short IdeaMARKET PHASE
OANDA:USDCHF is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour).
AREA OF VALUE
Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price has started it's initial move down but due to the velocity of the downward move, it's gapped some orders around 0.88378. Price is likely to retrace to this level before continuing downwards.
TRADE
I will be entering short on OANDA:USDCHF with the following parameters:
Sell Limit: 0.88378
Stop Loss: 0.88543
Take Profit: 0.88048
Sell USDCHF Channel BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This technical setup suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.8830, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 0.8798 and 0.8770. Further downside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 0.8855. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
USDCHF - Long from bullish order block ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 1H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for a long. I wait price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 0.88000.
Fundamental news: Next week is full of news with high impact on USD and CHF, we will see results of Interest Rate in both countries.
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usdchf daily outlookit is going to complete a flag pattern after a clear upside move. so as the previous upside move, we can think that the next move could be upside after the valid breakout of this flag. I am not telling you guys to execute the market right now....wait for a valid breakout wait for better confirmation...then define your risk and then take the position.
note:- let's talk about the validity of a flag pattern. when you see the 4 touches on a flag pattern then it's going to be a valid pattern. another validity is a breakout. thank you
USDCHF
In the USD/CHF pair, a bearish trend seems to be emerging on the 4-hour timeframe, supported by the breakout below the double top neckline. Additionally, the correction of around 50% in the previous wave and the completion of the 4th Elliott wave further suggest downward pressure, potentially indicating a continuation towards the completion of the 5th Elliott wave. Traders might consider monitoring for further confirmation of this bearish sentiment through price action and key support/resistance levels.
USD CHF Shorts I am looking for shorts because of the weakness of the dollar, however I am mindful that there was a rejection and and a bullish close on the daily candle.
So there are two possibilities and the short entry may not set up.
In order for the short entry I would look for a rejection from the current area and a lower low close on the 4h to go back to the target area of 0.87283.
the other scenario would be a continuation from fridays daily close and a 4 h close above structure and yellow line and a long back to 0.88342
USD CONTINUES TO WEAK AGAINST CHF. SHORT POSITION IS READY!The USDCHF price chart shows clear weakness with a distribution structure in the H4 time frame with control tilted towards the sellers.
Although the attempt to push the price down in the trading session on February 22, 2024 failed, it clearly demonstrated the strength of the sellers.
The price has successfully broken out of the lower boundary of the structure. At this time,
Trading with LONG positions is not recommended at this time. Wait for a retest of the lower boundary of the structure in the 0.8780 area to enter a SHORT position!
The potential price range that the market can move towards is at 0.8620. If the bearish scenario fails again, the market will once again find the price threshold of 0.8890.
USD/CHF 2 Entries +160 Pips 0 Drawdown , New Entry Valid !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
USDCHF Gave Yesterday +50 Pips 0 Drawdown , 2 New Entries Valid This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
USD/CHF Rejected Hard , Good Place To Sell It Now ?This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Usdchf Confirm Analysis The USD/CHF pair struggles to gain ground near 0.8830 after retreating from nearly the 0.8900 mark during the early European trading hours on Monday. The downtick of the pair is backed by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower US Treasury bond yields. Market players await the Swiss February Consumer Price Index (CPI) for fresh impetus, which is expected to ease from 1.3% in January to 1.1% in February.
Sell USDCHF Channel BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined channel pattern.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.8827, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 0.8780 and 0.8751. Further downside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 0.8865. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Buckle Up for a Potential USD/CHF Short with External Liquidity
For traders seeking a potential short opportunity, the USD/CHF pair presents itself as an interesting candidate, especially when considering the influence of external liquidity. Here's a breakdown of the factors at play:
1. External Liquidity Woes: Global central banks are tightening their monetary policies, draining excess liquidity from the financial system. This can strengthen the CHF, a safe-haven currency, as investors seek refuge during economic uncertainties.
2. USD Correction: The US dollar has enjoyed a strong run in recent times. However, a potential correction could be on the horizon, especially if economic data disappoints or the Fed's hawkish stance softens.
3. Technicals: The USD/CHF chart might be hinting at a potential reversal. Look for signs of weakness, such as bearish chart patterns or overbought conditions on technical indicators.
Remember: This is just a simplified overview, and conducting your own research is crucial before making any trading decisions. Consider factors like risk management, position sizing, and exit strategies to navigate the market effectively.
Stay tuned for further updates and analysis!