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USDCHF Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe USD/CHF currency pair has exhibited bullish tendencies on the higher time frame. Currently, we are witnessing a significant retracement as price has encountered resistance. In the accompanying video, we explore a potential trading opportunity, contingent upon the development of favorable price action. We identify key support and resistance levels, along with an optimal entry point based on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The discussion encompasses chart patterns, price action analysis, and a particular form of price behavior that, if advantageous, would warrant market entry. As a disclaimer, the information provided is solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading carries inherent risks, and it is imperative to implement sound risk management practices at all times.
Long
by tradingwithanthony
1
USDCHF - A Godsend In addition to my longer-term swing trade (if not already a position trade) in the form of a USDCHF long with a profit target of +760 pips, seen here I am also entering a "shorter-term" USDCHF long trade here at 0.83600, with a target of 0.87100. Thus a good +340 pips would be possible here. The probability that the weakness of the USDCHF will also come to an end by the end of the year tomorrow at the latest is exorbitantly high and the CRV at these levels is more palatable than ever. Otherwise, the fundamental reasons remain the same as in the longer-term trade above. -> The SNB will no longer be happy with the current levels of the CHF as soon as it returns from its skiing holiday in the Swiss Alps.
Long
by PrimeTrading
14
FX Wars Episode 5 - The (USD) Empire strikes back!I go long the USD vs CHF here from 0.843. I give the trade a high probability of 80% to be a winner, lets see! Once upon a time in an FX universe far, far away... The (supposedly) evil US(D) empire was pushed to the brink of defeat by the CHF rebellion, but "something" suddenly happened... ...life stirred into the USD again and it was sent back to fulfil its task (the bondage of all other currencies). What that "something" was I will unravel after the (profitable) end of this trade. USD facts: - The market is pricing in almost 7 rate cuts for 2024 -> this is diametrically opposed to the expectations of the FED members, who expect a total of 3 rate cuts for 2024 - Is the market once again too euphoric here and is frontrunning itself with possible rate cut fantasies? -> I would like to leave this question open for now, as I also expect more than 3 interest rate cuts by the FED in 2024 But the fact is: market expectations can only be fulfilled if either A) there is a recession in the USA and or B) inflation permanently falls below the 2% mark CHF view: The SNB is currently on Christmas holiday and is probably letting loose while skiing in the Swiss mountains followed by apres-ski party hits. But as soon as the party is over and the hangover is felt all the harder in the new year, the Swiss National Bank will have a heart attack when it looks at the value of the franc. -> It is now more "overvalued" than it was during the corona crisis, when the SNB had to intervene to actively weaken the CHF - Now these are completely different circumstances under which the SNB has to operate and yet it can be anything but satisfied with the strength of the franc... More on this later in the comments...
Long
by PrimeTrading
2
SHORT USD/CHF from .9040Apround the 13th March the price of USD/CHF broke through the key 200 EMA on the H1 time frame. Around the 20th March, the price returned to the 200 and this acted as solid support. AT the end of last week, we saw the price return to the 200 and make several attempts to break through. Although these BEARISH breaks were successful they were met with determined BULLISH replies and price moved back above the 200 but did not make any further progress north. A look at the charts currently (13:30 9/4/24) sees the price of USD/CHF being squeezed back under the 200 by the 100, 50 and 25 EMA. This is significant. This indicates that USD/CHF are losing the battle to holf the 200 and I~m now in SHORT from .9040. Currently (on H1 time frame) the 25 50 and 100 EMA's are reading .9018/.9021/9016 and I expect/anticipate that we'll see the 25, 50 and 100 EMA's begin to cross over each other (south) and in an hour or two we will see the faster EMA's start attacking the 200 which would be very BEARISH for USD/CHF. Adding to this anlaysis is: a). price is now under the 200 EMA. b). RSI declining c). Fast and slow MACD lines crossing south over the zero line d). Andean Oscillator red SELL line rising as the green BUY line declines. All in all its hard to see where USD/CHF can go other than south from these levels.
Short
by forextraplaces
SEEL STOP USD/CHF from .9032 (price now .9056)The price on USd/CHF hit the WR1 pivot 3 candles ago (H1 time frame) and since thenm we've seen 2 doji candles and the current candle which has 15m to complete looks liek it may well be another doji. Doji candles are NOT reversal candles as some think. They are indecision candles. Its clear that WR1 has seen some sustained BEARISH pressure and there is a battle royal happening around WR1 (.9057) and the BULS and BEARS are striving for domination. The BULLS look like they all to do to hold these levels. We've been in and out of overbought for 13 hours and RSI is currently 72.52. MACD on H1 is moving into negative (slow MA reading lower than fast MA) although currently is stalemate. The Pivot Point SuperTrend is still BULLISH on 15M but we do have a 11 dots of resistance at .9063. Andean Oscillator has seen a drop to flat for the green BUY line although since the drop this line has been climbing. All 3 values on the Andean Oscillator are currently grouped at .00060 (green) .00056 (red) and .00064 (signal line) so we can expect to see these value spread over the next hour or so. If the green BUY line declines and the red SELL line rises, we will have a SHORT opportunity so I have a SELL STOP at .9032 with a STOP above (.9063) and a target of .8939 though much could happen should this trade trigger. No news scheduled until tomorrow so the market will drive the price and I expect this trade to trigger in the next hour or so.
Short
by forextraplaces
USDCHF Long ViewCentral banks have had their say for Q1 and there were arguably two surprises, both from central banks that have deployed negative interest rates in the recent past. The Bank of Japan decided to exit negative rates and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), in a surprise decision, voted to cut their benchmark interest rate – the first of the major central banks to do so. Lower inflation forecasts for Switzerland and meagre growth lay the foundation for further easing to come from the often-unpredictable SNB before Chairman Thomas Jordan steps down in September. In contrast, The Fed requires more confidence that recent hotter-than-expected inflation is headed towards the 2% target on a consistent basis while growth and the labour market remain resilient – supporting the dollar. CONTRASTING FUNDAMENTALS PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR USD/CHF IN Q2 Now that the SNB has pulled the trigger and cut rates, this allows other central banks to consider the doing the same. However, being the first mover, the Swiss Franc opened itself up to currency depreciation due to a worsening of interest rate differentials. For other nations still experiencing stubborn inflation, this would have been a concern but given the franc’s undesirable appreciation and Switzerland’s impressively low CPI (1.2% in February) – the decision to cut actually makes sense for the EU member state.
Long
by FXBANkthe8055
USDCHF - Confluence for a long ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long position. I have a point of interest where there are confluence arguments for a long position, this one is if price fills the imbalance lower and rejects from S/R zone + FIBO 0.5 level + institutional big figure 0.89000. Fundamental news: Next week on Friday we have NFP and Unemployment Rate in USA, news with high impact on USD. As well, on Thursday we have monthly CPI on CHF. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Long
by Snick3rSD
4
Sell Signals Looming? This Pair Nears Crucial SELL ZoneThis pair has been on a strong upward trend since the beginning of the year, following a significant drop at the end of December. At that time, I shared my first trading idea for 2024 on TradingView. You can find that idea linked in a related post at the bottom of this discussion. That trading strategy was spot on, hitting our target of 0.88, although I had mentioned the possibility of climbing even higher, beyond 0.90, due to certain key levels. And that's precisely what happened. The price is now nearing the SELL/SUPPLY zone at 0.91. This level was established in September 2023 and initiated the decline to 0.83. So, what comes next? Is it time to sell? If we examine the weekly chart below, you'll see a SELL/SUPPLY level right beneath the monthly one, which I believe was the real trigger for the descent to the new lows. The initial drop (indicated by a red arrow) did not set a new low, with the market pausing before plummeting sharply for eight consecutive weeks. This is the zone where selling should be considered, especially as the market has been rising for nearly 13 straight weeks and appears to be extremely overbought as we enter the Weekly SELL/SUPPLY zone between 0.90 & 0.91. The Daily chart shows that momentum hasn't diminished significantly and remains strong. This suggests that we might see a minor pullback towards 0.88 before another surge to the swing high @0.92, followed by another sell-off (refer to the chart below). I'll now begin searching for SELL signals on the 4hr timeframe with the TRFX indicator, aiming for a short-term sell position towards 0.88 or possibly lower, around 0.86. Price may continue its ascent towards 0.92 without the short-term pullback, given the strength in the daily trend, and then proceed to sell-off. Hence, I will also be preparing for this scenario and look to add to my position if the price moves up. In the longer term, this pair is still bearish on the Monthly charts, and a bullish trend would only be confirmed by a clean break and close above 0.92, which could then open the path for moves all the way back to 1.04. For now, I anticipate a sell-off from these levels given the overstretched 13-week bullish run and entry into a key Monthly SELL/SUPPLY zone that precipitated last year's lows. Let me know your thoughts below.
Short
by TheFxAce
10
USDCHF - Expect retracement ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long position. I wait price to continue the retracement and my point of interest for a long is if price rejects from trendline + S/R level + institutional big figure 0.89000. Fundamental news: Next week on Thursday we have news on USD, will be released quarterly GDP, which has high impact on currency. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Long
by Snick3rSD
USDCHF: View on daily timeframe, we are neutral. FX:USDCHF last few month price has been bearish all along as CHF remain strongest in the situations where war and other economical conflicts affects in global financial market. We are still not sure about future trend of this pair, as strong bullish price action yet to be seen. However, the big amount of volume was accumulated at lower low of thursday which suggest a possible correction can occur. We would advice you to use smaller timeframe to have a better and safer bias. Good Luck and Trade Safe
by Setupsfx_
15
USDCHF - Long from bullish order block ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 1H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for a long. I wait price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 0.88000. Fundamental news: Next week is full of news with high impact on USD and CHF, we will see results of Interest Rate in both countries. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Long
by Snick3rSD
6